The Job Creation Hoax

 

How to build a Global Currency

From The Economist

Seventy years ago the Indian rupee was often found a long way from home. After India gained independence from Britain, the currency remained in use in sheikhdoms across the Arabian Sea. Until as late as 1970, some employed the Gulf rupee, a currency issued by India’s central bank.

Today the picture is rather different. The rupee accounts for less than 2% of international-currency transactions, even though the Indian economy is the world’s fifth-largest. Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, would like to see the currency span the globe once again. Speaking at the 90th anniversary of the Reserve Bank of India on April 1st, Mr Modi told the central bank’s policymakers to focus on making the rupee more accessible. Historically, however, national leaders have been a lot more likely to express enthusiasm for the idea of making their currency a global one than to enact the reforms required to do so.

Although the American dollar is the undisputed king of currencies, there are many with a global role of their own. The euro, the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the dollars of Australia, Canada, Hong Kong and Singapore are all examples. These currencies are found in foreign reserves and private portfolios worldwide, and used for both trade and financial transactions. In theory, there is no reason why the rupee should not join the illustrious group.

Having a widely used currency brings sizeable benefits. Demand from overseas investors lowers financing costs for domestic companies, which are no longer compelled to borrow in foreign currencies. Such demand also reduces exchange-rate risks for exporters and importers, who do not need to convert currencies so often when trading, and enables the government to reduce the size of its foreign-exchange reserves.

Some of the foundation stones of an international currency are being laid in India. The country now has assets that foreigners want to buy, making the rupee a potential store of value overseas. In September JPMorgan Chase, a bank, announced that it would include Indian government bonds in its emerging-market index. Bloomberg, a data provider, took the same decision last month. The explosive performance of the country’s stocks, which are up by 37% in dollar terms over the past year, has piqued global interest.

The rupee is also increasingly a unit of account and a medium of exchange for foreigners. Banks from 22 countries have been permitted to open special rupee-denominated accounts, without the usual exchange limits. In August India made its first rupee payment for oil, to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

Yet China shows how far India has to go. Although Chinese policymakers have been trying to make the yuan a global currency for more than a decade, it still accounts for less than 3% of international trades made via swift, a payments network, outside the euro zone, despite the fact that China accounts for 17% of global gdp. Moreover, 80% of such international yuan transactions occur in Hong Kong. China’s relatively closed capital account, which prevents investments from flowing freely across its borders, is the main obstacle to wider use of its currency. India’s capital account is less closed than it once was, but is still far more sheltered than that of any of the countries with a global currency.

Japan provides a better example. In 1970 it accounted for 7% of global gdp—more than the 4% it does now—and its companies were beginning to make a mark abroad. But the yen was a nonentity. That changed over the following decade: in 1970, 1% of Japan’s exports were invoiced in yen; by the early 1980s, 40% were. In 1989 the yen made up 28% of all foreign-exchange transactions. It still accounts for 16% today.

To make the leap to global-currency status, Japan’s leaders had to transform the country’s economy. They allowed foreigners to hold a wide range of assets, deregulated big financial institutions, and peeled back controls on capital flows and interest rates. These changes disrupted Japan’s export-oriented economic model, and undermined the power of the country’s bureaucrats.

Changes just as far-reaching—and uncomfortable—will be required for any country that now wants to join the top table. Few seem to have the stomach for them at present. Indeed, without American pressure and the threat of tariffs, Japan itself might not have made such reforms. America is not about to lean on India in the same way. The desire for change will have to come from within.

Atif Mian on the Economic Reality of Pakistan

 

China’s recent economic woes suggest there is something seriously amiss

George Magnus in The Guardian

At a Politburo meeting last month, China’s leaders referred to the economic recovery this year as “torturous”. You won’t often hear such candour coming from a Chinese Communist party institution, let alone such an elevated body. They were referring to current conditions, of course, but China’s problems reveal much that is systemically out of kilter in its economic and political system.

During the past few days, some of the statistics China has published have caused a stir. Consumer prices in July were lower than a year ago, suggesting it might be on the cusp of deflation, which reflects a chronic shortage of demand in the economy. And China’s foreign trade in the same month showed a sharp fall in exports due to weak global demand, with a sharper decline in imports signifying weakness in demand at home. There were murky factors affecting both but the message is that something more serious is amiss in China.


Indeed, China was widely expected to bounce back from the pandemic and there was a bit of a flurry early in 2023. Yet, consumption has generally been very subdued especially for big-ticket items such as cars and houses, and private investment, the backbone of China’s economy, fell in the first half of this year, for the first time since such data was published many years ago.

Private firms and entrepreneurs are not spending much on investment or on hiring people. Youth unemployment has topped 21%, or double what it is in the UK and almost three times the rate in the US. The annual graduation of 11-12 million students in the the summer is aggravating an already difficult situation because of the problems of finding suitable work, and also because the Chinese labour market has become one in which most jobs are in the lower-pay, low-skill, gig or informal economy compared with higher quality jobs in manufacturing and construction.

It would be wrong though to pin this all on the pandemic. Most things weighing on China’s economy have been building for several years, even while much of the world was wowed by China’s global brands such as Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent and TikTok, property was booming, and China was leaving its footprint all over the world through the “belt and road” initiative and its rising governance engagement with global entities such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Health Organization.

In spite of its unequivocal accomplishments and successes, China has, during the past decade or more, spawned a mountain of bad debt, unprofitable and uncommercial infrastructure and real estate, empty apartment blocks and little-used apartments and transport facilities, and excess capacity in, for example, coal, steel, solar panels and electric vehicles. Productivity growth has stalled, and China can unfortunately boast one of the world’s highest levels of inequality.

It is ageing faster than any other country on the planet but with a skinny social security system in which most of its 290 million migrant workers are not eligible for most social benefits. Under Xi Jinping, moreover, it has also developed an increasingly repressive, state-centric and controlling governance system, both for political reasons and to deal with the effects of its failing development model.

These are testing times for Chinese citizens, especially the fabled rising middle class whose savings have mostly found a home in an outsized real estate sector which has now entered a period of structural decline. Most of the housing stock, overbuilding, collapse in transactions and weakness in prices are not in big agglomerations such as Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai, but in hundreds of smaller cities and towns that rarely make news.

China’s leaders have been vocal this year about strengthening consumption and about improving the business environment for private firms and entrepreneurs, who have been pressured or punished to align their commercial interest with the party’s political goals. We still await evidence that such rhetoric has substance.

In the coming weeks and months, we should probably expect the authorities to ease financial and budgetary policies, housing regulations, and borrowing caps to finance infrastructure. There might even be measures that look consumer-friendly but also fail to boost the income that alone can sustain higher consumption.

These things may give the economy a temporary lift over the winter but the underlying weakness of the economy and the greater authoritarianism that China features are now two sides of the same coin that seem irreversible, certainly for the time being.

It is a moot point whether this sort of China in the 2020s is a bigger threat to geopolitical stability than one in which it confidently strides the world stage and is able to brush aside liberal leaning democracies and reframe global governance in its interests. But a crucial one to get right.

A Level Economics 85: Deflation

 Deflation refers to a sustained decrease in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over time. It is the opposite of inflation and represents negative inflation rates. Deflation occurs when the overall demand for goods and services in the economy falls below the economy's productive capacity, leading to downward pressure on prices.

Demand-side Deflation: Demand-side deflation occurs when there is a decrease in aggregate demand (AD) for goods and services. This can result from factors such as declining consumer spending, reduced business investment, and falling exports. The decrease in demand leads to excess supply in the economy, prompting sellers to lower prices to attract buyers.

Supply-side Deflation: Supply-side deflation, on the other hand, is driven by improvements in the economy's productive capacity. Technological advancements, increases in productivity, and cost-saving innovations can lead to lower production costs for goods and services. As a result, producers can lower prices while maintaining profit margins, leading to deflation.

Effects of Deflation:

1. Beneficial Supply-side Deflation: Deflation caused by supply-side improvements can be viewed as beneficial under certain circumstances. When technological advancements and productivity gains lead to lower production costs and more efficient resource allocation, it can result in lower prices without sacrificing quality. Consumers can benefit from lower prices, and the economy may experience increased competitiveness and long-term economic growth.

2. Problems with Demand-side Deflation: Demand-side deflation can create major problems for economies. When consumers and businesses expect prices to fall further, they delay purchases, leading to decreased aggregate demand and a decline in economic activity. This, in turn, can lead to reduced business profits, layoffs, and a negative feedback loop where falling demand leads to further deflationary pressures.

Costs of Deflation:

1. Falling Asset Prices: Deflation can lead to falling asset prices, including real estate and stocks. This can reduce household wealth and lead to negative wealth effects, causing consumers to cut back on spending.

2. Rising Real Debt Burden: Deflation increases the real value of debt, making it more difficult for households, businesses, and governments to service their existing debts. This can lead to defaults and financial instability.

3. Reduced Investment: Businesses may delay investment and expansion plans during deflationary periods due to uncertain economic conditions and reduced profit expectations.

4. Wage and Price Stickiness: Wage and price adjustments may be slow to respond to deflation, leading to sticky wages and prices. This can exacerbate the deflationary spiral as businesses struggle to lower costs and maintain profit margins.

5. Deflationary Spirals: Once deflationary expectations take hold, they can become self-reinforcing. Consumers delay spending, leading to falling demand, lower prices, and further deflation, creating a deflationary spiral that can be difficult for governments to break.

Ending Deflationary Spirals:

Ending deflationary spirals can be challenging for governments and policymakers. Conventional monetary policy tools, such as lowering interest rates, may become less effective when interest rates are already at or near zero (the zero lower bound). In such situations, unconventional measures, like quantitative easing, may be employed to increase money supply and boost demand.

However, ending deflationary spirals requires addressing underlying demand-side weaknesses and restoring confidence in the economy. Fiscal stimulus, targeted investment, and efforts to stabilize financial markets can play critical roles in ending deflationary pressures and promoting economic growth.

In conclusion, while supply-side deflation driven by productivity gains can be beneficial, demand-side deflation poses significant challenges for economies. Deflation can lead to falling asset prices, increased real debt burden, reduced investment, and deflationary spirals. Policymakers face difficulties in reversing deflationary trends once they have taken hold and must adopt appropriate measures to stimulate demand, restore confidence, and achieve price stability.

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Real-world examples of deflation have occurred at various points in history and in different countries. Here are some notable instances:

1. Great Depression (1930s): The Great Depression was a severe global economic downturn that started in the late 1920s and lasted throughout the 1930s. During this period, many countries experienced deflation as demand collapsed, leading to falling prices and widespread economic hardship.

2. Japan's Lost Decades (1990s and 2000s): Following the bursting of Japan's asset price bubble in the early 1990s, the country entered a prolonged period of economic stagnation known as the "Lost Decades." During this time, Japan faced deflationary pressures, characterized by falling prices, sluggish economic growth, and persistent consumer and business pessimism.

3. Eurozone Debt Crisis (2010s): Several countries in the Eurozone, including Greece, Portugal, and Spain, faced deflationary pressures during the sovereign debt crisis that emerged in the early 2010s. As these countries implemented austerity measures to address their debt burdens, demand declined, leading to falling prices and economic stagnation.

4. Switzerland's "Francogeddon" (2015): In January 2015, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly abandoned its currency peg with the euro, causing the Swiss franc to appreciate significantly. The sharp currency appreciation led to deflationary pressures in Switzerland, as imported goods and services became cheaper.

5. COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): The global economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic had significant deflationary effects in certain sectors. With widespread lockdowns and reduced economic activity, demand for goods and services fell, leading to temporary deflationary pressures in areas like travel, hospitality, and energy.

6. Japan's Deflationary Stagnation (1990s - 2020s): Japan has faced prolonged periods of deflationary stagnation since the early 1990s. Despite various policy efforts, the Japanese economy has struggled to escape deflationary pressures and achieve sustained inflation.

It's important to note that deflation is relatively rare compared to inflation and is generally considered a more challenging economic condition to manage. While some episodes of deflation may be brief and related to specific events or supply-side improvements, others, like Japan's deflationary stagnation, have persisted over more extended periods, requiring innovative and sustained policy measures to combat the deflationary pressures.

A Level Economics 79: Unemployment

Unemployment refers to the condition in which individuals who are willing and able to work are unable to find suitable employment despite actively seeking job opportunities. It is an important economic indicator that reflects the underutilization of labor resources within an economy. Unemployment is a significant concern for policymakers as it indicates inefficiencies in the labor market and potential economic underperformance.

Unemployment can occur due to various factors, including fluctuations in business cycles, technological advancements, changes in demand for goods and services, structural shifts in the economy, and mismatch between job vacancies and the skills of the labor force.

Types of Unemployment:

1. Frictional Unemployment: Temporary unemployment that arises when individuals are in the process of transitioning between jobs or entering the labor market for the first time. It is considered a natural and inevitable part of a dynamic labor market.

2. Structural Unemployment: Occurs when there is a long-term imbalance between the skills and qualifications of the labor force and the requirements of available jobs. This type of unemployment is related to changes in the structure of the economy, such as technological advancements or shifts in industries.

3. Cyclical Unemployment: Linked to fluctuations in the business cycle. It arises during economic downturns or recessions when there is a decline in aggregate demand, leading to reduced production and layoffs.

4. Seasonal Unemployment: Occurs due to seasonal variations in demand for labor in certain industries. Workers in sectors like agriculture or tourism may experience unemployment during off-peak seasons.

5. Technological Unemployment: Arises when technological advancements and automation replace human labor in certain industries, leading to job displacement.

Methods of Measuring Unemployment:

1. Labor Force Survey (LFS): A household survey conducted regularly by government statistical agencies. It involves interviewing a sample of households to determine the labor force status of individuals, including whether they are employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. The unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed individuals divided by the labor force, multiplied by 100.

2. Registered Unemployment: Some countries maintain records of individuals registered as unemployed with public employment agencies. However, this method may not capture all unemployed individuals, as some may not register or may not be eligible for registration.

3. Claimant Count: This method counts individuals who are claiming unemployment benefits. While it provides a timely measure, it may not include all unemployed individuals, especially those not eligible for benefits.

Problems with Measuring Unemployment:

1. Underemployment: The official unemployment rate may not capture underemployed individuals who work part-time but desire full-time employment.

2. Discouraged Workers: Some individuals may become discouraged by their job search and stop actively seeking employment, leading them to be excluded from the official unemployment rate.

3. Hidden Unemployment: Certain individuals, such as those engaged in informal work or the underground economy, may not be captured in official unemployment statistics.

4. Mismatch in Skills: The official unemployment rate may not account for individuals who are unemployed due to a skills mismatch, especially in cases of structural unemployment.

5. Survey Errors: Labor force surveys rely on sampling, which may introduce sampling errors that affect the accuracy of the reported unemployment rate.

Conclusion:

Unemployment is a crucial economic indicator that reflects the inability of individuals to find suitable employment despite actively seeking work. Understanding the types of unemployment and the methods used to measure it helps policymakers and economists assess the health of an economy and formulate appropriate policies to address unemployment-related challenges. 

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Costs of Unemployment:

Unemployment comes with a range of economic and social costs that affect various stakeholders in the economy, including households, governments, firms, and the overall economy:

1. Economic Costs:

a. Loss of Output and Productivity: Unemployment leads to an underutilization of labor resources, resulting in a loss of potential output and productivity for the economy. When workers are unemployed, their skills and expertise are not contributing to the production of goods and services.

b. Reduced Consumer Spending: Unemployed individuals typically have lower disposable incomes, which leads to reduced consumer spending. This, in turn, affects the overall demand for goods and services, potentially leading to a decline in economic activity.

c. Lower Tax Revenues: Unemployment results in fewer people earning taxable income, leading to a decrease in tax revenues for the government. This can impact the government's ability to fund public services and infrastructure.

d. Increased Government Expenditures: Unemployment can lead to higher government expenditures on unemployment benefits and social welfare programs to support those without work. This places a burden on public finances.

e. Wastage of Human Capital: Prolonged unemployment can lead to the erosion of skills and human capital, making it harder for workers to re-enter the labor market and contributing to long-term unemployment.

f. Potential for Social Unrest: High and persistent unemployment rates can lead to social discontent, protests, and even unrest in the affected communities.

2. Social Costs:

a. Psychological and Emotional Impact: Unemployment can have severe psychological and emotional effects on individuals, including stress, anxiety, depression, and a loss of self-esteem.

b. Increased Poverty and Inequality: Unemployment can push households into poverty and exacerbate income inequality, especially if benefits and support systems are inadequate.

c. Health Issues: Unemployed individuals may face health problems due to financial stress, reduced access to healthcare, and increased psychological strain.

d. Family and Social Disruptions: Unemployment can strain family relationships and social networks, leading to disruptions in social cohesion.

3. Costs to Firms:

a. Lost Productivity and Skills: Unemployment can result in a loss of skilled workers, affecting a firm's productivity and competitive advantage.

b. Training and Recruitment Costs: High unemployment rates may not necessarily mean readily available skilled workers for firms. Companies might incur additional expenses for recruitment and training.

c. Lower Consumer Demand: A rise in unemployment can reduce consumer demand, negatively affecting sales and revenues for businesses, especially those reliant on domestic consumption.

4. Costs to the Economy:

a. Slower Economic Growth: High levels of unemployment can lead to slower economic growth due to reduced consumer spending and investment.

b. Inefficiency and Inequality: Persistent unemployment can create inefficiencies in resource allocation and lead to increased income inequality.

c. Social Safety Net Costs: Governments may need to allocate significant resources to fund unemployment benefits and other social safety net programs.

Conclusion:

Unemployment carries significant costs, both economic and social, impacting households, governments, firms, and the economy as a whole. Reducing unemployment and promoting full employment should be a priority for policymakers to mitigate the negative consequences of joblessness on individuals and society while fostering economic stability and growth.

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Demand-Side Causes of Cyclical Unemployment:

Cyclical unemployment is primarily driven by fluctuations in aggregate demand within the economy. It occurs during economic downturns or recessions when there is a decline in overall demand for goods and services. The key demand-side causes of cyclical unemployment are:

1. Decreased Consumer Spending: During an economic downturn, consumers tend to cut back on spending as they become more cautious about their finances. Reduced consumer spending leads to a decrease in demand for goods and services, resulting in lower production levels and job losses.

2. Decline in Business Investment: Businesses may postpone or scale back their investment plans during economic downturns due to uncertain economic conditions. Reduced business investment leads to lower demand for capital goods, which can result in layoffs and job losses in the investment goods industries.

3. Falling Exports: A global economic downturn can lead to a decrease in demand for exports from a country. If a significant portion of the economy relies on exports, a decline in export demand can lead to job losses in export-oriented industries.

4. Contractionary Monetary Policy: Central banks often implement contractionary monetary policies (raising interest rates, reducing money supply) to control inflation. However, these policies can also lead to reduced consumer and business borrowing and spending, resulting in lower aggregate demand and cyclical unemployment.

Different Views on the Temporariness of Cyclical Unemployment:

Different schools of thought have varying views on how temporary cyclical unemployment is likely to be:

1. Keynesian Perspective: Keynesian economists believe that cyclical unemployment is generally temporary and can be effectively addressed through expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. By increasing government spending and reducing interest rates, policymakers can boost aggregate demand and stimulate economic activity, thereby reducing cyclical unemployment.

2. Neo-Classical Perspective: Neo-classical economists, on the other hand, argue that cyclical unemployment is likely to be relatively short-lived. They believe that the labor market will adjust itself through flexible wages and prices, allowing the economy to return to full employment in the long run without intervention. They emphasize the role of supply-side factors, such as labor market flexibility and technology, in restoring equilibrium.

Different Views on the Real Underlying Causes of Unemployment:

Keynesian and Neo-Classical economists have different views on the real underlying causes of unemployment:

1. Keynesian Perspective: Keynesian economists highlight the role of insufficient aggregate demand as the primary cause of unemployment. They argue that when aggregate demand falls below the level required for full employment, cyclical unemployment emerges. To address this, Keynesians advocate for active government intervention through fiscal and monetary policies to boost demand and achieve full employment.

2. Neo-Classical Perspective: Neo-classical economists place greater emphasis on supply-side factors as the main drivers of unemployment. They argue that rigidities in labor markets, such as minimum wages and labor union power, create wage inflexibility, leading to unemployment. They also believe that government intervention can be counterproductive and that market forces should be allowed to adjust wages and prices to restore equilibrium.

Conclusion:

Cyclical unemployment is caused by fluctuations in aggregate demand during economic downturns. Keynesian economists view it as temporary and advocate for government intervention to stimulate demand and reduce unemployment. Neo-classical economists, on the other hand, believe in market adjustments through flexible wages and prices to address unemployment and tend to be more skeptical of the effectiveness of government intervention. Understanding these different perspectives is essential for policymakers to design appropriate measures to combat cyclical unemployment and promote overall economic stability.

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Supply-Side Causes of Unemployment:

Supply-side causes of unemployment are rooted in problems and inefficiencies within factor markets, particularly the labor market. These factors affect the ability of workers and employers to match available jobs with the skills and willingness to work. The key supply-side causes of unemployment include:

1. Occupational and Geographical Inflexibility: Unemployment can arise when workers are unwilling or unable to move or change occupations to match available job opportunities. Geographical immobility refers to the reluctance of workers to relocate to areas with better job prospects, while occupational immobility occurs when workers lack the skills or qualifications needed for available jobs.

2. Lack of Incentives to Work: Some individuals may choose not to work or actively seek employment due to the availability of social welfare benefits or unemployment benefits. When the benefits of not working outweigh the benefits of employment, it can lead to a disincentive to work and contribute to unemployment.

3. Real Wage Unemployment: Real wage unemployment occurs when the real wage (adjusted for inflation) is above the market-clearing wage. If wages are artificially kept high due to minimum wage laws or strong labor unions, it can lead to an excess supply of labor (unemployment) as employers cannot afford to hire all willing workers at the prevailing wage.

Link to the Natural Rate of Unemployment:

The natural rate of unemployment refers to the level of unemployment that exists when the economy is in a state of equilibrium, with all markets (including the labor market) clearing, and there is no cyclical unemployment. It represents the sum of frictional and structural unemployment.

The supply-side causes of unemployment are closely linked to the concept of the natural rate of unemployment:

1. Frictional Unemployment: Factors such as occupational and geographical immobility contribute to frictional unemployment. Workers may need time to search for suitable jobs and transition between positions, leading to temporary unemployment.

2. Structural Unemployment: Problems in factor markets, such as real wage unemployment and lack of incentives to work, contribute to structural unemployment. Barriers to labor market flexibility and mismatches between available jobs and the skills of the labor force are key components of structural unemployment.

3. Natural Rate and Economic Stability: The natural rate of unemployment is an important concept for policymakers as it represents a level of unemployment that is unavoidable in a healthy, functioning economy. Attempts to reduce the unemployment rate below the natural rate through demand-side policies may lead to inflationary pressures and other economic distortions.

4. Policy Implications: Policymakers need to distinguish between cyclical and structural unemployment. Demand-side policies, such as fiscal and monetary measures, are more suitable for addressing cyclical unemployment during economic downturns. However, structural unemployment requires supply-side policies aimed at improving labor market flexibility, skills development, and incentives to work.

Conclusion:

Supply-side causes of unemployment are driven by problems in factor markets, particularly the labor market, and include factors such as occupational and geographical inflexibility, lack of incentives to work, and real wage unemployment. These issues contribute to structural unemployment and are linked to the concept of the natural rate of unemployment, which represents the equilibrium level of unemployment in a healthy economy. Policymakers need to understand these supply-side factors to design appropriate measures to address different types of unemployment effectively and promote long-term economic stability.

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