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Showing posts with label chance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chance. Show all posts

Wednesday 16 August 2023

A level Economics: Starting Fair and Dealing with Luck: Comparing Monopoly and Real Economies

 ChatGPT

Think about Monopoly, the game where you buy properties and compete to win. Now, let's compare it with how the real world works when it comes to money, businesses, and luck.

In Monopoly, every player starts with the same amount of money. This makes sure that nobody gets an advantage right away. It's like starting a race with everyone on the same line. This makes the game about skills and strategy.

But in real life, things can be different. Some people start with more money or better chances. It's like some players in Monopoly starting ahead with better properties. This isn't fair, and it's how it is in the real world sometimes.

In Monopoly, luck comes into play with the roll of dice and the cards you draw. Sometimes you land on good spots, and sometimes not. Luck can make a big difference in the game. Similarly, real life has surprises too. New inventions, what people want to buy, and unexpected events can change how well businesses and people do.

But here's where they're not the same. In Monopoly, luck only matters during the game. In real life, luck is just one piece of the puzzle. Real life is more complicated. It's not just about luck – it's about how things are made, what people like, and rules set by governments. All of these things make the real world much harder to predict than a game.

So, in Monopoly, luck follows the game's rules. In real life, luck mixes with many other things, making it more complex. The comparison between Monopoly and real life reminds us that the real world is unfair and trickier.

Saturday 24 June 2023

Economics Explained: Business Failure and Entrepreneurs

 The survival and success rates of new businesses can vary significantly depending on various factors such as industry, location, market conditions, management, and more. While I don't have access to real-time data, I can provide you with some general information based on historical trends and studies conducted prior to my knowledge cutoff in September 2021. It's important to note that these figures are approximate and can vary over time.

  1. Survival Rates:

    • According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, about 20% of new businesses fail within their first year of operation.
    • By the end of their fifth year, roughly 50% of new businesses no longer exist.
    • After ten years, around 70% of new businesses have closed down.
  2. Success Rates:

    • Determining the success of a business can be subjective and depends on various factors, such as profitability, growth, market share, and individual goals.
    • Studies suggest that a significant percentage of new businesses may struggle to achieve sustainable profitability and long-term success.
    • Factors that contribute to successful businesses include a strong business plan, market demand for the product or service, effective marketing and sales strategies, financial management, and adaptability to changing market conditions.

It's important to remember that these statistics are generalizations and do not guarantee individual outcomes. The success of a new business depends on a multitude of factors, including the specific circumstances surrounding each venture. Entrepreneurship requires careful planning, market research, a solid business model, and continuous adaptation to improve the chances of survival and success.

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Despite the challenges and risks associated with starting a new business, many people still choose to pursue entrepreneurship for several reasons. Here are a few factors that motivate individuals to start their own businesses:

  1. Pursuing Passion and Independence: Many entrepreneurs are driven by their passion for a particular product, service, or industry. They desire the freedom to work on something they love and have control over their professional lives.

  2. Financial Opportunities: Starting a business can provide potential financial rewards. Entrepreneurs may see an opportunity to create wealth, generate income, or achieve financial independence by owning a successful business.

  3. Flexibility and Work-Life Balance: Some individuals start businesses to gain greater control over their schedules and achieve a better work-life balance. Entrepreneurship can offer the flexibility to set one's own hours, work from anywhere, and spend more time with family and pursuing personal interests.

  4. Innovation and Creativity: Starting a business allows individuals to bring their innovative ideas and solutions to life. They may want to introduce new products or services, disrupt existing industries, or solve specific problems they are passionate about.

  5. Personal Growth and Challenge: Entrepreneurship is a journey that provides opportunities for personal growth and development. Overcoming challenges, acquiring new skills, and taking on leadership roles can be highly rewarding and fulfilling for many entrepreneurs.

  6. Autonomy and Decision-Making: Some individuals prefer to be their own boss and make independent decisions. Entrepreneurship offers the autonomy to shape the direction of the business, implement strategies, and build a company culture according to their vision.

  7. Job Security and Control: In an uncertain job market, starting a business can provide a sense of security and control over one's professional future. Rather than relying on a single employer, entrepreneurs create their own opportunities and have a certain level of control over their destiny.

It's important to note that while starting a business can be appealing for these reasons, success is not guaranteed, as it requires careful planning, hard work, resilience, and adaptability. Each individual's motivations for starting a business can vary, and the decision to become an entrepreneur involves a unique blend of personal, professional, and financial considerations.

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While starting a new business involves risks and uncertainties, it is not entirely comparable to buying a lottery ticket. Here are some key differences:

  1. Control and Influence: When starting a business, individuals have a considerable degree of control and influence over the outcome. They can shape the business strategy, make decisions, and take actions that impact its success. In contrast, buying a lottery ticket is purely based on chance, with no control or influence over the outcome.

  2. Effort and Skill: Starting a business requires significant effort, planning, and the application of skills and knowledge. Entrepreneurs must invest time, resources, and expertise to develop their business, whereas buying a lottery ticket requires no effort or skill beyond the act of purchasing the ticket.

  3. Probabilities and Factors: The success of a business is influenced by various factors such as market demand, competition, industry knowledge, marketing strategies, financial management, and more. While the odds of success may vary, they are not entirely random like the odds of winning a lottery, which are typically extremely low.

  4. Learning and Adaptation: Entrepreneurs have the opportunity to learn from their experiences, adapt their strategies, and improve their chances of success over time. They can acquire knowledge, seek guidance, and make adjustments based on market feedback. In contrast, winning the lottery is based purely on luck and does not offer the opportunity for personal growth or development.

  5. Long-Term Potential: Starting a business has the potential for long-term sustainability, profitability, and growth. A successful business can provide a stable income and create value for its owners, employees, and customers over an extended period. In contrast, winning the lottery is typically a one-time event with no guarantee of long-term financial stability.

Success in business is influenced by a multitude of factors, including strategic planning, effective execution, market understanding, adaptability, innovation, customer satisfaction, financial management, leadership skills, team building, and more. While there are external factors and market forces that are beyond an individual's control, entrepreneurs have the ability to actively shape and influence many aspects of their business, increasing the likelihood of success through informed decision-making, hard work, continuous learning, and a willingness to adapt to changing circumstances.

Wednesday 29 January 2020

Why should I care - Lectures on Inequality

Lecture 1 - Why should I care about Inequality


Lecture 2 - How do we measure Inequality

Lecture 3 - What is happening to Inequality


Lecture 4 - What is happening now?


Lecture 5 - The Bigger picture

Saturday 17 December 2016

Lucky Dip


by Girish Menon




Shiv is in a bind
Got no more options
Throws the ball to the leggie
Abdul save me from my plight

What should I do skip?
Flight or darts?
The game will be lost
In a jiff or in time

Do what you please
Take a risk if you wish
Take the field that you want
Save me from my fate


I will be deposed
My record exposed
Personally divorced


Abdul, take the risk
You don't have to worry
It is my flutter
Just get me a winner

Abdul flights the ball
Six runs to win
Twelve balls to play
Three wickets left

The ball slips from his grip
Dips and hits a divot on the pitch
Shoots along the mud
Hits the batter on his foot

The ump raises his finger
The crowd is happy
The experts begin to rave
At the great bowling change


I still have some hope
My record intact
My family safe


The match is won soon after
The experts sing my praise
The cup is saved
I will remain captain again
  
Many wins follow
Folks call me the greatest
Skipper and tactician
That ever played

But if it was not for Abdul
And the divot on the pitch
Daily I’d be walking to Tesco
To buy a lucky dip.


Image result for lucky work




Wednesday 2 September 2015

Want to be happy? Be grateful

David Steindl-Rast





The person you really need to marry:
Tracy Mcmillan


How to know the purpose of your life in five minutes
Adam Leipzig

Sunday 14 June 2015

Love, intuition and women. Science would wither without them

Boyd Tonkin in the Independent

As it sometimes does, last October the Nobel Committee for the prize in physiology or medicine split its award. Half the pot (of eight million Swedish kronor in all) went to the British-American neuroscientist John O’Keefe, the other to the Norwegian couple who have charted the grid cells in the brain that enable our pathfinding and positioning skills via a sort of “internal GPS”.

May-Britt Moser and Edvard I Moser first met at high school and have worked together over 30 years. Professor Moser (May-Britt) said after the Nobel nod: “It’s easy for us because we can have breakfast meetings almost every day.” Professor Moser (Edvard) stated: “We have a common project and a common goal … And we depend on each other for succeeding.”

“There were a lot of things that made me decide to marry Edvard,” the other Professor Moser has recalled. Not all had to do with neurological breakthroughs. Once, Edvard gave her a huge umbrella. Open it, he said. “So I opened it above my head, and it rained down small beautiful pieces of paper with little poems on about me.”

This week, another Nobel laureate in the same discipline – Sir Tim Hunt, 2001 – found himself in need of a titanium umbrella in order to fend off the media flak. The 72-year-old biochemist told a conference in South Korea that “girls” caused mayhem in the lab. “You fall in love with them, they fall in love with you and when you criticise them, they cry.” Cue the avalanche of outrage that has now driven Sir Tim – married, by the way, to the distinguished immunologist Professor Mary Collins – out of his honorary post at University College, London. In Britain, where only 13 per cent of scientific and engineering professionals are female, his off-the-cuff “banter” has gone down like a tungsten (denser than lead) balloon.

So it should. Yet the champions of equality in science who have justly hooted at Sir Tim’s antique ditty might spare a thought for the Mosers’ partnership. The Norwegian pair are not alone in fusing personal commitment with top-grade scientific collaboration. Last year, in a fascinating study for Nature, Kerri Smith reported that, according to the US National Science Foundation, “just over one-quarter of married people with doctorates had a spouse working in science or engineering”. A 2008 survey found that the proportion of research posts that went to couples had risen from 3 per cent in the 1970s to 13 per cent.

Smith consulted a range of high-flying scientific double acts. They included the Taiwanese cell biologists Lily and Yuh-Nung Jan, who have collaborated since 1967. Lily Jan praised the joint progress made possible by a “very consistent long-term camaraderie”. After years of long-distance romance and research, physicists Claudia Felser and Stuart Parkin now live together in Germany with plum posts at the Max Planck Institutes in (respectively) Dresden and Halle. “Lufthansa and United Airlines will be very unhappy,” said Parkin.

These partnerships in life and lab follow a different, far more equal, pattern to the liaison of master and muse, once common in the arts. Scientists tend not to bother much with history. But the rising number of collaborating duos will know that they can hail as their forerunners the most intellectually fertile pairing of all: between Marie Sklodowska-Curie and Pierre Curie.

Marie had plentiful Hunts of her own to vanquish. In 1903, only a late objection by a Swedish mathematician with feminist sympathies prevented her first Nobel Prize, in physics, from going to Pierre and Henri Becquerel alone. Not that the Nobel selectors learned their lesson. Lise Meitner, who first explained the significance of nuclear fission, never got the call. When Francis Crick, James Watson and Maurice Wilkins shared the Nobel for their work on DNA in 1962, no mention was made of Rosalind Franklin (who had died in 1958). Her research into the double‑helix structure had made their triumph possible.

As any woman scientist will tell you, such neglect and condescension die hard and slow. Yet the atavistic Hunt and his denouncers share a common position. Both would banish Eros from the bench. Cases such as the Mosers suggest that, in some conditions, intimate bonds may even seed creativity. Expel love from the lab, and who knows what angels of deliverance might flee as well?

Besides, in science or any other pursuit, the same seeker can benefit at different stages both from solitary striving and intimate collaboration. You will find moving proof of this in the “autobiographical notes” that Marie Curie appended to her 1923 memoir of her husband. As a lonely Polish student in 1890s Paris, she relished her independence, even at the cost of cold, hunger and isolation in a freezing garret. She wrote: “I shall always consider one of the best memories of my life that period of solitary years exclusively devoted to the studies, finally within my reach, for which I had waited so long.”

Later, as she and Pierre experimented to isolate radium and investigate its properties in a tumbledown hut on the Paris School of Physics site, another kind of bliss took hold: “It was in this miserable old shed that we passed the best and happiest years of our life, devoting our entire days to our work.” Marie and Pierre’s shared quest embraced rapture as well as reason: “One of our joys was to go into our workroom at night; we then perceived on all sides the feebly luminous silhouettes of the bottles or capsules containing our products. It was really a lovely sight and one always new to us. The glowing tubes looked like faint, fairy lights.”

Note the poetry. Sir Tim, in contrast, reveals himself as a strict dualist. Love and tears will ruin your results. On the one hand lies intellect, on the other emotion. As always, the female serves as proxy for the latter. Yet the binary mind in which Hunt believes no more exists in physics than in painting. Investigate the history of scientific discovery and you plunge into a wild labyrinth of Curie-style ecstasies, hunches, chances, blunders, windfalls, visions, guesses, serendipities and unsought “Eureka!” moments.

However, at the entrance to this theme park of happy accidents one statement should stand. Louis Pasteur said: “Chance favours only the prepared mind.” The intuitive breakthrough that rewrites all the rules happens to people who have toiled and failed, toiled again and failed better. Vision blesses the hardest workers. “I’m enough of an artist to draw freely on my imagination,” Einstein said in 1929. “Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world.” But he could get away with such New Agey bromides only because he was Albert Einstein.

Still, the scientific evidence in favour of intuitions, dreams and visions is strikingly widespread. In 1865, August Kekulé slumps in front of the fire and, in a reverie, sees the atoms of the benzene molecule “twisting and moving around in a snake-like manner”. Then, “one of the snakes got hold of its own tail, and tauntingly the whole structure whirled before my eyes”.

In 1869, Dmitri Mendeleev grasps the structure of the periodic table in another dream. In a Budapest park in 1882, Nikola Tesla recites Goethe’s Faust and then imagines the electrical induction motor. “The idea came like a flash of lightning and in an instant the truth was revealed… The images I saw were wonderfully sharp and clear.”

More recently, the Nobel-winning biochemist Kary Mullis has written a Thomas Pynchon-like account of the day in 1983 when during a nocturnal drive in California he “saw” the pattern of the DNA polymerase chain reaction that kick-started genetic medicine. With his girlfriend (a chemist in the same lab), he had left for a weekend in the woods. “My little silver Honda’s front tyres pulled us through the mountains… My mind drifted back into the laboratory. DNA chains coiled and floated. Lurid blue and pink images of electric molecules injected themselves somewhere between the mountain road and my eyes…”

A self-mythologising tinge colours many such memoirs of inspiration. They uncannily tend to resemble one another. All the same, these “Eureka!” narratives have a consistent theme, of a break or rest after thwarted labour. The pioneer of quantum mechanics Paul Dirac wrote that “I found the best ideas usually came, not when one was actively striving for them, but when one was in a more relaxed state”; in his case, via “long solitary walks on Sundays”. In science, the unconscious can work hardest when the intellect has downed tools.

In which case, the flight from emotion – from Tim Hunt’s dreaded tears and love – may sterilise more than fertilise. Shun “girls”, by which he seems to mean all subjectivity, and the seeker risks falling into an antiseptic void.

But enough: it feels unscientific, to say the least, to pillory a bloke for a gaffe that shows up a culture and an epoch more than an individual man. Perhaps Sir Tim, and the Royal Society that clumsily rushed to distance itself from him despite its own distinctly patriarchal history, could lay the matter to rest with a suitable donation. It ought to go to the Marie Curie charity for terminal care, which since 1948 has enlisted science and research to strengthen love – and to dry tears.