'People will forgive you for being wrong, but they will never forgive you for being right - especially if events prove you right while proving them wrong.' Thomas Sowell
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Wednesday, 31 January 2024
Why You Should Never Retire
From The Economist
In an episode of “The Sopranos”, a popular television series which started airing in the 1990s, a gangster tells Tony, from the titular family, that he wants to retire. “What are you, a hockey player?” Tony snaps back. Non-fictional non-criminals who are considering an end to their working lives need not worry about broken fingers or other bodily harm. But they must still contend with other potentially painful losses: of income, purpose or, most poignantly, relevance.
Some simply won’t quit. Giorgio Armani refuses to relinquish his role as chief executive of his fashion house at the age of 89. Being Italy’s second-richest man has not dampened his work ethic. Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s sidekick at Berkshire Hathaway, worked for the investment powerhouse until he died late last year at the age of 99. Mr Buffett himself is going strong at 93.
People like Messrs Armani, Buffett or Munger are exceptional. But in remaining professionally active into what would historically be considered dotage, they are not unique. One poll this year found that almost one in three Americans say they may never retire. The majority of the nevers said they could not afford to give up a full-time job, especially when inflation was eating into an already measly Social Security cheque. But suppose you are one of the lucky ones who can choose to step aside. Should you do it?
The arc of corporate life used to be predictable. You made your way up the career ladder, acquiring more prestige and bigger salaries at every step. Then, in your early 60s, there was a Friday-afternoon retirement party, maybe a gold watch, and that was that. The next day the world of meetings, objectives, tasks and other busyness faded. If you were moderately restless, you could play bridge or help out with the grandchildren. If you weren’t, there were crossword puzzles, tv and a blanket.
Although intellectual stimulation tends to keep depression and cognitive impairment at bay, many professionals in the technology sector retire at the earliest recommended date to make space for the younger generation, conceding it would be unrealistic to maintain their edge in the field. Still, to step down means to leave centre stage—leisure gives you all the time in the world but tends to marginalise you as you are no longer in the game.
Things have changed. Lifespans are getting longer. It is true that although the post-retirement, twilight years are stretching, they do not have to lead to boredom or to a life devoid of meaning. Once you retire after 32 years as a lawyer at the World Bank, you can begin to split your time between photography and scrounging flea markets for a collection of Americana. You don’t have to miss your job or suffer from a lack of purpose. If you are no longer head of the hospital, you can join Médecins Sans Frontières for occasional stints, teach or help out at your local clinic. Self-worth and personal growth can derive from many places, including non-profit work or mentoring others on how to set up a business.
But can anything truly replace the framework and buzz of being part of the action? You can have a packed diary devoid of deadlines, meetings and spreadsheets and flourish as a consumer of theatre matinees, art exhibitions and badminton lessons. Hobbies are all well and good for many. But for the extremely driven, they can feel pointless and even slightly embarrassing.
That is because there is depth in being useful. And excitement, even in significantly lower doses than are typical earlier in a career, can act as an anti-ageing serum. Whenever Mr Armani is told to retire and enjoy the fruits of his labour, he replies “absolutely not”. Instead he is clearly energised by being involved in the running of the business day to day, signing off on every design, document and figure.
In “Seinfeld”, another television show of the 1990s, Jerry goes to visit his parents, middle-class Americans who moved to Florida when they retired, having dinner in the afternoon. “I’m not force-feeding myself a steak at 4.30 just to save a couple of bucks!” Jerry protests. When this guest Bartleby entered the job market, she assumed that when the day came she too would be a pensioner in a pastel-coloured shirt opting for the “early-bird special”. A quarter of a century on, your 48-year-old columnist hopes to be writing for The Economist decades from now, even if she trundles to her interviews supported by a Zimmer frame; Mr Seinfeld is still going strong at 69, after all. But ask her again in 21 years.
Friday, 21 July 2023
A Level Economics 71: The Circular Flow Model
The circular flow model is a simplified representation of how goods, services, and money flow through an economy. It illustrates the interactions between households and businesses and how they participate in the production and consumption of goods and services. The model consists of two main sectors: the household sector and the business sector.
Assumptions of the Circular Flow Model:
- There are only two sectors in the economy: households and businesses.
- The economy is a closed system with no external trade or government involvement.
- All income earned by households is either spent on consumption or saved.
- Businesses use all their revenue to pay for factors of production, such as labor and capital.
Components of the Circular Flow Model:
1. Households: Households are the owners of resources, such as labor, land, and capital. They supply these resources to businesses in return for income. In the circular flow model, households are depicted as the source of labor and as consumers who purchase goods and services from businesses.
2. Businesses: Businesses are the producers of goods and services. They hire labor and purchase other inputs from households and produce goods and services that are sold to households.
3. Factor Market: The factor market is where businesses purchase the factors of production from households. Households provide labor, land, and capital in exchange for wages, rent, and profits.
4. Product Market: The product market is where businesses sell goods and services to households. Households, in turn, spend their income on purchasing these goods and services.
The Circular Flow and Equilibrium: In an economy, the circular flow reaches equilibrium when the total amount of goods and services produced (output) matches the total amount of goods and services consumed (expenditure) by households. Additionally, equilibrium means that the total income earned by households is equal to the total income spent on goods and services by businesses.
Key Terms in the Circular Flow:
Injections: Injections are additions of income to the circular flow of income and spending that do not arise from the normal activities of households and firms. These injections are external to the circular flow and include three main components: investment, government spending, and exports.
Withdrawals: Withdrawals are leakages from the circular flow of income and spending. They represent funds that are taken out of the circular flow and do not return as spending on goods and services. There are three main types of withdrawals: savings, taxes, and imports.
Explanations of Injections and Withdrawals:
1. Injections: a) Investment: Investment represents the spending by businesses on capital goods, such as machinery, equipment, and infrastructure, to expand their production capacity and enhance future output. When businesses invest, they inject funds into the circular flow of income, leading to increased economic activity and potential employment opportunities. For example, a construction company building a new factory is making an investment injection into the economy.
b) Government Spending: Government spending refers to the expenditure by the government on public goods and services, welfare programs, education, healthcare, and infrastructure projects. When the government spends, it injects funds into the circular flow, which can boost overall demand and support economic growth. For instance, a government allocating funds to build schools and hospitals is making a government spending injection into the economy.
c) Exports: Exports represent the sale of goods and services produced in a country to foreign markets. When a country exports, it generates income from outside its domestic economy, adding to the circular flow of income. Exports are an important injection as they contribute to a country's economic growth and can create employment opportunities in export-oriented industries. For example, when a country exports cars to foreign markets, it is making an export injection into its economy.
2. Withdrawals: a) Savings: Savings are the portion of household income that is not spent on consumption but set aside for future use or investment. When households save, funds are withdrawn from the circular flow, reducing the overall spending in the economy. While saving is essential for capital formation and investment, excessive saving can lead to reduced demand for goods and services, potentially slowing down economic growth.
b) Taxes: Taxes are compulsory payments made by households and businesses to the government. When taxes are collected, they represent a withdrawal from the circular flow, as the funds are not available for immediate consumption or investment. While taxes are necessary to fund government services, excessive taxation can reduce disposable income and, in turn, lower consumer spending and business investment.
c) Imports: Imports are the purchase of goods and services from foreign markets. When a country imports, it represents a withdrawal from the circular flow as funds flow out of the domestic economy to pay for foreign-produced goods and services. While imports allow consumers to access a variety of products, excessive reliance on imports can affect domestic industries and lead to a trade deficit.
Injections and withdrawals play a crucial role in determining the equilibrium income, output, and expenditure in an economy. Equilibrium occurs when total injections into the circular flow are equal to total withdrawals. Let's examine the impact of injections and withdrawals on the equilibrium:
1. Impact of Injections:
- When injections exceed withdrawals, it leads to an increase in total demand in the economy. This additional demand stimulates businesses to increase production to meet the higher level of expenditure. As a result, output and income increase, leading to a higher equilibrium level.
- For example, if the government increases its spending on infrastructure projects (injection), businesses will experience higher demand for construction-related goods and services. This can lead to increased output and income in the construction industry and related sectors, contributing to an expansion of the economy.
2. Impact of Withdrawals:
- When withdrawals exceed injections, it reduces the total demand in the economy. This reduction in demand may cause businesses to scale back production, leading to lower output and income in the economy.
- For instance, if households increase their savings rate (withdrawal), it reduces their spending on goods and services. This reduction in consumer spending can lead to a decrease in business revenue, leading to lower production and income.
3. Achieving Equilibrium:
- Equilibrium occurs when injections equal withdrawals. At this point, the total demand in the economy matches the total supply, resulting in a balanced level of output, income, and expenditure.
- For example, if the government increases its spending (injection) while also increasing taxes (withdrawal) by an equal amount, the net effect on total demand is zero. This would lead to a balanced equilibrium where total injections equal total withdrawals.
Policy Implications:
- Policymakers often use injections and withdrawals as tools to influence the equilibrium level of income and output in the economy.
- During periods of economic recession or slowdown, policymakers may increase injections, such as government spending on public projects, to stimulate demand and boost economic activity.
- Conversely, during periods of inflationary pressures, policymakers may implement measures to reduce injections, such as raising interest rates or decreasing government spending, to curb excessive demand and control inflation.
In summary, injections and withdrawals are vital determinants of equilibrium income, output, and expenditure in an economy. When injections exceed withdrawals, it leads to higher demand and increased economic activity, while the opposite scenario may result in reduced demand and economic contraction.
Multiplier Effect and Equilibrium:
The multiplier effect refers to the process by which an initial change in injections (such as investment, government spending, or exports) leads to a larger final impact on the equilibrium income and output of an economy. It occurs due to the circular flow of income, where an increase in injections results in increased consumer spending, which, in turn, generates more income for businesses, leading to further spending and income creation. The multiplier effect amplifies the initial injection, creating a larger overall impact on the economy.
Understanding the Multiplier Effect:
Initial Injection: Suppose the government increases its spending on public infrastructure projects by $100 million. This additional government spending is an injection into the circular flow of income.
Increase in Consumer Spending: With the $100 million spent on infrastructure, construction companies receive more income. The workers employed in these projects now have more money, which they, in turn, spend on goods and services like food, clothing, and entertainment.
Increased Business Income: The increased spending by consumers boosts the revenue of businesses producing these goods and services. As a result, businesses experience a rise in their income.
Further Rounds of Spending: The businesses, in turn, spend their increased income on paying wages to their employees, purchasing raw materials, and investing in their operations. These payments and investments create additional income for households and other businesses, leading to further rounds of spending and income creation.
Multiplier Effect: The process continues in multiple rounds, with each successive round resulting in a smaller increase in spending and income. The total increase in income throughout these rounds is the multiplier effect.
Impact on Equilibrium: The multiplier effect has a substantial impact on equilibrium income and output. As the initial injection leads to additional spending and income creation, the total effect is greater than the initial injection alone. This increase in overall spending raises the equilibrium income and output of the economy.
Example: Suppose the initial government spending injection of $100 million has a multiplier of 2. This means that for every dollar of government spending, the equilibrium income increases by $2.
Initial Injection: $100 million First Round of Spending: $100 million x 2 = $200 million Second Round of Spending: $200 million x 2 = $400 million Third Round of Spending: $400 million x 2 = $800 million
In this example, the final impact of the initial $100 million government spending injection on the equilibrium income is $800 million, which is significantly larger than the initial injection.
Link to Injections and Withdrawals: The multiplier effect is closely tied to injections and withdrawals in the circular flow of income. Injections, such as government spending, investment, and exports, create additional income and spending, which leads to a positive multiplier effect, increasing equilibrium income and output. Conversely, withdrawals, like savings, taxes, and imports, reduce spending and income, leading to a negative multiplier effect and potentially decreasing equilibrium income and output.
In conclusion, the multiplier effect is a powerful concept in macroeconomics, showcasing how initial injections into the circular flow can lead to substantial changes in equilibrium income and output. Understanding the multiplier effect is crucial for policymakers to design effective fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic growth and maintain economic stability.
A Level Economics 60: Correcting Income Inequality
1. Progressive Taxation: Definition: Progressive taxation is a system where individuals with higher incomes pay a higher proportion of their income in taxes.
Intervention: By implementing progressive tax rates, governments can redistribute wealth from the wealthy to the less affluent. The additional revenue can be used to fund social programs and services that support low-income individuals, such as education, healthcare, and social welfare initiatives.
2. Social Safety Nets: Definition: Social safety nets are programs designed to provide financial support and assistance to individuals and families facing economic hardships or experiencing income shocks.
Intervention: Implementing and expanding social safety nets, such as unemployment benefits, food assistance programs, and housing subsidies, can help alleviate poverty and protect vulnerable populations during economic downturns.
3. Minimum Wage Policies: Definition: Minimum wage policies establish a legal minimum wage that employers must pay their workers.
Intervention: Setting a fair and adequate minimum wage ensures that workers receive a living wage, reducing income inequality and improving the financial well-being of low-income individuals and families.
4. Access to Education and Training: Intervention: Ensuring equal access to quality education and training opportunities can help individuals improve their skills and earning potential, reducing income disparities between different segments of the population.
5. Wealth Tax: Definition: A wealth tax is a tax levied on an individual's net wealth (assets minus debts).
Intervention: Implementing a wealth tax targets the accumulation of wealth among the wealthiest individuals and helps reduce wealth inequality.
6. Inclusive Economic Growth Strategies: Intervention: Governments can design and implement economic policies that focus on inclusive economic growth, where the benefits of economic expansion are shared more equitably across society. This can be achieved by investing in infrastructure, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, and creating job opportunities in underserved areas.
7. Reducing Discrimination and Bias: Intervention: Governments can enforce anti-discrimination laws and implement policies that promote diversity and inclusion in the workplace. Reducing discrimination can improve economic opportunities for marginalized groups, reducing income disparities.
8. Strengthening Labor Rights: Intervention: Enhancing labor rights and ensuring collective bargaining power for workers can lead to fairer wages and better working conditions, contributing to a more equitable distribution of income.
By implementing these measures, governments can address market failures caused by income inequality and create a more just and inclusive society. These interventions help promote social cohesion, reduce poverty, and improve overall economic well-being for all citizens.