The messy truth about achieving economic growth

The writer, Daniel Susskind in The FT, is the author of ‘Growth: A Reckoning’ and an economist at Oxford university and King’s College London 

There seem to be few policy problems in Britain that “growth” will not solve. Backlogged and broken public services? We need growth to bolster tax revenues. National debt breaking £1tn for the first time? We need growth to make that sustainable. Rising worklessness and real wages that have not budged for 15 years? We need growth to fire up the labour market.  

Growth has become one of those rare things, a policy panacea: promising to benefit almost everyone in society, leaving few problems out of its restorative reach. And for that reason, its pursuit has bent the political spectrum back on itself, with leaders at opposite ends meeting in agreement about its merits. For Sir Keir Starmer, it is the “defining mission” of his government; for Rishi Sunak, it was one of his party’s ill-fated “five priorities”.  

The focus on growth is surely right. We need more of it. The challenge is how to create it. Today’s political leaders talk confidently about what is required. But this sense of assuredness is entirely at odds with the little we really know about growth’s causes.  

To begin with, the idea that we should pursue growth at all is surprisingly new. Before the 1950s, almost no politicians, policymakers, economists — anyone — talked about it. That changed with the cold war. The US and Soviet Union, each desperate to show that their side was winning the battle of ideologies, furiously competed to outgrow one another. 

As political interest took off, economists tumbled over one another in their attempts to look useful, responding — with new stories, models and data — to these practical concerns. “[D]uring the Sixties”, wrote the economist Dennis Mueller, “the growth rate of the ‘growth literature’ far exceeded that of the phenomenon it tried to explain.”  

Yet despite all that intellectual firepower, we still lack definitive answers to the question of what causes growth. “The subject has proved elusive”, wrote the economist Elhanan Helpman in 2004, “and many mysteries remain.” 

There is an old-fashioned view of productive activity that pictures the economy as purely a material thing. From this perspective, growth is driven by building impressive things that we can all see and touch — faster trains, wider roads, more houses.  

However, the little we do know suggests that it does not actually come from the world of tangible things, but rather from the world of intangible ideas; not from guzzling up ever more finite resources — land, people, machines, and so on — but from discovering new ideas that make ever more productive use of those resources. Or, more simply, sustained economic growth comes from relentless technological progress.  

These observations — how little we know about growth and the power of ideas in driving it — have important practical implications. The former is a warning against hubris. Political leaders should not claim to have more control over our economic fate than they actually do. After all, if there were a simple lever we could pull for more growth, the problem of economic development would have been solved some time ago. 

The latter observation offers us guidance. We cannot simply “build” our way to more prosperity: there are good reasons to build more houses, for instance, but a radical transformation in national growth prospects is unlikely to be one of them. Instead, securing growth will require a relentless focus on the discovery of new ideas, doing all that we can to make Britain the best place in the world to develop and adopt the most powerful new technologies of our time.  

Vastly more investment in R&D would be a good place for the new government to start. In the UK, expenditure as a percentage of GDP is stuck at just half of what Israel (the leader in this field) achieves. But we must go further.  

During the 20th century, growth came about by providing human beings with ever more education: first basic schooling and then, later on, colleges and universities. For that reason it is known as the human-capital century, a time when a country’s prosperity depended on its willingness to invest in its people.   

The current century will be different. New ideas will come less frequently from us and more from the technologies around us. We can already catch a glimpse of what lies ahead: from large companies like Google DeepMind using AlphaFold to solve the protein-folding problem to each of us at our desks using generative AI — from GPT to Dall-E.  Whether Britain flourishes or fades in this future will depend on our willingness to invest in these new technologies and the people and institutions behind them. Any serious strategy for growth must start with that fact.  

Things to do If you get Covid-19

Received via Facebook from Subhasish Chowdhury

If you get Covid-19*

You basically just want to prepare as though you know you’re going to get a nasty respiratory bug, like bronchitis or pneumonia. You just have the foresight to know it might come your way!

*Things you should actually buy ahead of time* (not sure what the obsession with toilet paper is?):

• *Kleenex,*

• *Paracetamol*,

• Whatever your generic, mucus thinning *cough medicine* of choice is (check the label and make sure you're not doubling up on Paracetamol)

• *Honey and lemon* can work just as well!

• *Vicks* vaporub for your chest is also a great suggestion.

• A humidifier* would be a good thing to buy and use in your room when you go to bed overnight. (You can also just turn the shower on hot and sit in the bathroom breathing in the steam).

• *If you have a history of asthma* and you have a prescription inhaler, make sure the one you have isn’t expired and refill it/get a new one if necessary.

• *Meals* This is also a good time to meal prep: make a big batch of your favorite soup to freeze and have on hand.

• *Hydrate (drink!) hydrate, hydrate!* Stock up on whatever your favorite clear fluids are to drink - though tap water is fine you may appreciate some variety!

• *For symptom management* and a fever over 38°c, take Paracetamol rather than Ibuprofen.

• *Rest lots*. You should not be leaving your house! Even if you are feeling better you may will still be infectious for fourteen days and older people and those with existing health conditions should be avoided!

• *Wear gloves and a mask* to avoid contaminating others in your house

• *Isolate* in your bedroom if not living alone, ask friends and family to leave supplies outside to avoid contact.

• *Sanitize* your bed linen and clothes frequently by washing and clean your bathroom with recommended sanitizers.

You DO NOT NEED TO GO TO THE HOSPITAL unless* you are having trouble breathing or your fever is very high (over 39°C) and unmanaged with meds. 90% of healthy adult cases thus far have been managed at home with basic rest/hydration/over-the-counter meds.

*If you are worried or in distress or feel your symptoms are getting worse*

*Preexisting risks* If you have a pre-existing lung condition (COPD, emphysema, lung cancer) or are on immunosuppressants, now is a great time to talk to your Doctor or specialist about what they would like you to do if you get sick.

*Children-* One major relief to you parents is that kids do VERY well with coronavirus— they usually bounce back in a few days (but they will still be infectious), Just use pediatric dosing .

How do you know you have coronavirus?

1. *Itching in the throat,*

2. *Dry throat,*

3. *Dry cough.*

4. High temperature

5. Shortness of breath

So where you notice these things quickly take warm water with lemon and drink.

Sleep: Weird things people do in their sleep

By Denise Winterman

BBC News Magazine

Increasing numbers of people are asking for help with sleep disorders and some of them are doing rather strange things during the night.

Specialist sleep clinics are treating more people with sleep disorders than ever before.

It's not surprising. More than 30% of the UK population currently suffers from insomnia or another sleep disorder, according to the Mental Health Foundation. This can have serious mental and physical consequences.

Clinics say they are getting up to 50 new referrals a week. It's a fivefold increase in just a decade for some. This big rise has been put down to raised awareness of sleep disorders and more people reporting them.

The clinics are also dealing with some strange new sleep behaviour, while other rather odd sleep disorders are becoming more common. So what are the weird things people do?

Texting

Technology now plays a huge part in our lives so it's no shock that sleep experts are seeing new kinds of sleep behaviour related to it.

More people are reporting sending text messages during their sleep, says Dr Kirstie Anderson, who runs the Neurology Sleep Service for the Newcastle Upon Tyne NHS Foundation Trust. Considering the number of Britons who now own a mobile phone - 92% according to Ofcom - it's not surprising. Many people also take them to bed.

"It is very common for people to do things in their sleep that they do repeatedly during the day," says Anderson.

This is largely down to sleep disorders called parasomnias. These are unwanted behaviours that occur during sleep.

They can be as small as opening your eyes while asleep or, at the very extreme end, driving a car while sleeping. Anderson has even treated someone who carefully dismantled grandfather clocks while asleep.

What happens in our brains during such episodes is still something of a mystery. Not much research has been done, largely due to the fact that gathering data is very difficult.

"The problem is people rarely do such acts under controlled conditions at a sleep clinic," says sleep specialist Dr Chris Idzikowski, director of the Edinburgh Sleep Clinic. "But this area of research is going to really move forward in the next few years because we now have the necessary equipment to record people in their own homes."

Reassuringly, the texts people send when asleep often make no sense. While it is common for people to do things in their sleep that they do during the day, they do them more clumsily or inaccurately, says Anderson.

Eating

Unexplained empty food wrappers and a messy kitchen are what some sleepwalkers face when they wake up. Often snacking in your sleep is not a big problem, but in more extreme cases it is classed as Nocturnal Eating Syndrome (NES). Again, increased awareness of the sleep disorder means more people are being referred to sleep clinics with it.

Sufferers can raid the kitchen several times a night but have no recollection when they wake up. Not only do they lose sleep but they can put on an excessive amount of weight, causing a whole range of problems mentally and physically. Other concerns include choking in their sleep.

Like other strange nocturnal behaviour, sleep eating often happens when people experience parasomnias, which half a million Britons regularly do, according to Anderson. When it comes to eating in your sleep often it is related to what happens before bedtime.

"Sleepwalkers will often do simple things that make some kind of sense, like eat when having gone to bed hungry or dieting during the day," says Anderson.

In more complicated cases, where someone might cook a meal, the person is actually awake but will have no memory of what they have done. It's a type of amnesia, says Prof Jim Horne, from the Sleep Research Centre at Loughborough University.

"They are basically in a confused awake state. In these more extreme cases you can't attribute the problem to sleep itself. Often it's a case of stress, for example, affecting sleep."

Sex

Sexsomnia, a condition where people have sex in their sleep, has only really been brought to the public's attention in recent years. As yet very little research has been done into it, say sleep experts, but more cases are being reported.

It can become more frequent during times of stress or under the influence of alcohol or drugs and ranges from minor behaviour to full sexual intercourse, in some cases with serious consequences.

Idzikowski gives expert evidence at trials that involve serious sexual assaults and rape.

He says sexsomnia is a parasomnia. It is most likely to occur in the "deep sleep" stage when the thinking and awareness part of the brain is switched off but not the part of the brain responsible for basic urges like having sex.

"It is instinctive behaviour, people are not conscious at the time," says Idzikowski.

"When you are in a deep sleep moral and rational decision-making do not occur.

"It constantly surprises me the type of sleep problems people live with for years. Often they don't realise they can get help ."

Stop breathing

When sleepers stop breathing this is often caused by a sleep disorder known as Obstructive Sleep Apnoea (OSA). While it is not a new sleep disorder, an increasing number of people are being referred to sleep clinics with it. As obesity is a contributing factor, experts expect numbers to keep on rising.

Usually accompanied with very loud snoring, OSA occurs when the throat muscles collapse and block the airways and stop people from breathing - the apnoea. After recently undergoing tests as part of the new BBC One series Goodnight Britain Paul Asbury, from King's Lynn, found out that he regularly stopped breathing in his sleep for up to 26 seconds at a time.

"I was really scared when I was told," he says. "It made me panic to think I regularly stopped breathing and for that long. I thought I had a snoring problem but it was much more serious."

These breaks in breathing woke the 47-year-old lorry driver up to 50 times an hour during the night. In extreme cases it can be up 80 times, says Idzikowski.

"The sufferer will often not remember waking up. This is because the brain does not quite connect with the body, so the person is awake but doesn't know it. It can take up to a minute for the brain to connect with the body causing people to be conscious of waking up.

"The result is that sufferers get very little deep sleep which is one of the restorative phases of the sleep cycle. In the morning they usually feel incredibly tired," says Idzikowski.

This can have serious consequences if people are doing things like operating machinery. Asbury's disorder is being treated using a special face mask, which is working so far.

Exploding head syndrome

You're peacefully falling asleep and suddenly it's like a bomb has gone off in your head. It's exploding head syndrome, when a sudden and incredibly loud noise comes from within your head.

It's another parasomnia event. Sufferers have described the loud noise as sounding like a bomb explosion, a thunderclap and lightning or a gunshot. It is painless but can leave the person distressed. There are reports of people running to their windows to look out as they think a bomb has gone off nearby.

Some sleep experts say it is very rare but Anderson says cases have been referred to her in recent years. It is really the sensory equivalent of the motor start [the hypnic or sudden jerk accompanied by a falling feeling] we all sometimes get as we are going off to sleep, she says.

"People hear a really loud bang or explosion as they are drifting off to sleep, and then work out that it can't be external as no-one else heard it. Sometimes people get bright flashes of light.

"It is entirely benign, but can be alarming and mostly we simply reassure sufferers. Sometimes medication is used if people are very bothered and therefore worry about falling asleep and make it worse."

Often there is no pattern to episodes, but they can go on for years and be a significant disruption to quality of life.