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Showing posts with label ratings agency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ratings agency. Show all posts

Tuesday 30 September 2014

Awkward questions for Tesco should be answered by its accountants too


Auditors are vital to the financial markets. But when they miss a catastrophe in the offing, they’re not doing their job
Daniel Pudles on Tesco
Illustration by Daniel Pudles
So the supermarket that shoved horsemeat in its burgers now admits to sprinkling horse manure on its balance sheet. That quip has been doing the rounds since Tesco confessed last week to exaggerating its profits by £250m, and it strikes at the heart of the scandal. Just as a meat patty is manufactured, so too are a set of accounts. Neither falls from the sky, or gets slung together by a solitary bloke at twilight. They are instead a huge co-production of staff, auxiliaries and quality controllers, and they reflect the culture of the environment in which they are assembled.
Conversely, whoppers as large as the one Tesco has been caught telling won’t suddenly have popped out of the mouths of a mere handful of managers. Profits forecast for the biggest of FTSE 100 retailers will have been chalked up by advisers working to standard company practice, sweated over by executives and signed off at top levels of the company. Yet the result, according to new chief executive, Dave Lewis, is the kind of accounting he hasn’t seen during 27 years in business.
The horsemeat disgrace exposed a systemic dysfunction in capitalism: the abuse of suppliers by all-powerful supermarkets resulting in dinners that families couldn’t trust. Last week’s accounting scandal opens the door on another systemic breakdown: how one of those same giant businesses, struggling to pep up a flagging stock price, produced numbers that the business world couldn’t believe.
For understandable reasons, the press has largely spun this as the latest episode in the downfall of Tesco. Who wouldn’t tell that story? It’s simpler, starker and focuses on a high-street institution – what could be more satisfying than a tale of hubris at one Britain’s last remaining world-leading companies, especially if it allows a moist recollection of former Tesco boss Terry Leahy, one of the country’s dwindling number of business people of international repute.
But then awkward questions arise that force us to pull back the frame. The one that foxes me: where were Tesco’s auditors in all this? PwC is one of the Big Four accountancy firms who between them carry out around 90% of all audits for FTSE 350 companies. The £2.7bn-turnover partnership went over Tesco’s accounts for the 12 months to February this year, and gave the supermarket chain a clean audit in May. Just a few weeks later, on 29 August, Tesco executives issued their now infamous forecast – the one that exaggerated their likely profits by 25%.
You can imagine that in the course of a not-so-balmy summer, one of Europe’s biggest businesses suddenly went off its collective trolley and put out a confected set of figures – which, let me emphasise, were not checked over by its auditors. But consider this: back in May, PwC plainly was not entirely comfortable with the numbers it was signing off for Tesco. It went so far as to note its concern over commercial income – the fees paid by suppliers for Tesco giving their products prominence within their stores, and the income overstated in August by the supermarket chain.
On page 66 of the annual report, the auditors note that “commercial income is material to the income statement and amounts accrued at the year end are judgmental. We focused on this area because of the judgment required in accounting for the commercial income deals and the risk of manipulation of these balances.” In the polite, formulaic world of company reporting, this is a warning klaxon. And yet the auditors then went on to list the measures they’d taken to allay their concerns – and to sign off the numbers.
PwC has been Tesco’s auditor for over 30 years. For that service, Tesco paid PwC £10.4m in the last financial year – plus another £3.6m for other consultancy work. Of the 10 directors on the supermarket’s board (leaving aside the chief executive and the chief financial officer, both of whom are relatively new), two are ex-PwC: Mark Armour, a non-executive director, and Ken Hanna, chair of the company’s own audit committee.
Now imagine yourself as a senior executive at Tesco. The business has never been the same since Leahy left. The slump has dampened consumer spirits, some of the company’s foreign adventures now look ill-judged, and Aldi and Lidl are eyeing up your customers. And your remuneration partly depends on the share price – which is listing, badly. How and when to count commercial income is already one of the greyest of grey areas in accounting. Why wouldn’t you be a bit more “aggressive” in your forecasting?
To be clear, we don’t know that anything like this happened – yet it’s exactly to avoid such suspicions arising that we have auditors. This is why the government demands the vast bulk of limited companies (and hospitals and charities) have their accounts audited.
Just as with credit-rating agencies, auditing is a necessary part of the financial markets – but the auditors are paid by the very companies they are judging. Just as with S&P and Moodys, they form a small but powerful “oligopoly” – what was once the Big Eight shrank to the Big Five and, after the Andersen debacle at Enron, to the Big Four. And just as with the credit-raters, the result is often so unsatisfactory as to be useless.
All those banks that collapsed in the crisis were signed off as perfectly sound by PwC and its fellow auditors. But then, as Jeff Skilling, chief exective of Enron, said in 2004: “Show me one fucking transaction that the accountants and the attorneys didn’t sign off on.”
Nor was that a one-off lapse: in May this year, the regulators at the Financial Reporting Council noted that PwC audits, while generally of “a good standard”, were also too accepting of management fudge. As Prem Sikka, professor of accounting at the University of Essex, argues: “If some used car dealer was engaged in a fraction of the shortcomings, warnings and scams that big accountancy firms have been involved in, he would be put out of business.”
For their part, accountants are often aware of their industry’s shortcomings. For his book Accountants’ Truth: Knowledge and Ethics in the Financial World, Matthew Gill interviewed 20 young accountants at the Big Four firms. He found a bunch of men well aware of the boredom of the audit and of the shortcuts they were forced to make.
Some defended what they did. One told him: “I don’t think there’s anything unprofessional in giving views of facts directed by whoever it should be.” Another described his discomfort at working in his firm’s corporate-finance department and supporting what he described as “immoral” and “borderline corrupt” tax wheezes. But rather than voice his qualms, he simply moved department. Whistleblowing was not for him: “I would have felt I would look slightly ridiculous.”
Read that last sentence and recall that the person who blew the whistle this month on Tesco wasn’t the company’s audit committee or ethics committee – and they don’t appear to be from PwC either. As far as we know, the anonymous whistleblower worked for Tesco’s UK finance director, Carl Rogberg, and their report was at first ignored.
When last week’s scandal broke, Tesco chair Sir Richard Broadbent airily opined: “Things are always unnoticed until they are noticed.” He forgot to mention that that goes double if people are paid to turn a blind eye.

Thursday 31 July 2014

Argentina defaults as debt talks break down

Finance minister Axel Kicillof said Argentina would not be held to ransom by bondholders demanding to be paid in full
Argentina's Economy Minister Axel Kicillof speaks to the media at a press conference at the Argentine Consulate in New York July 30, 2014.
Argentina's economy minister Axel Kicillof speaks to the media at a press conference in New York July 30, 2014. Photograph: CARLO ALLEGRI/REUTERS
Argentina has fallen into default for the second time since 2001 after last-minute talks with "vulture" bondholders in New York failed to produce a deal overnight.

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At a dramatic press conference in New York on Wednesday night, Argentinian finance minister Axel Kicillof declared that Argentina would not be held to ransom by the holdout bondholders, who are demanding to be paid in full on debt which the country defaulted on in 2001.
Kicillof said: "We're not going to sign an agreement that jeopardises the future of all Argentines. Argentines can remain calm because tomorrow will just be another day and the world will keep on spinning."
Shortly before the deadline, Daniel Pollack, the court-appointed mediator, confirmed that the talks had broken down. "Unfortunately, no agreement was reached and the Republic of Argentina will imminently be in default."
Earlier, the credit rating firm Standard & Poor's declared that Argentina was now in "selective default". The default comes two months after a US court ruled that Argentina must pay the holdout bondholders in full, saddling it with a bill of more than $1.5bn.
The vast majority (more than 90% of bondholders) agreed to restructure debts in 2005 and 2010, taking a big "haircut" – a reduction of more than 70% in the value of their investments in return for regular interest payments.
Argentina's last default, in late 2001, came after a major political and economic crisis; scores were killed in riots, and both the president and the economy minister resigned. But there was little sign of a panic in global financial markets this time, as the default was widely expected. However, it could add more pain for Argentinians, with the economy already in recession.
Pollack said: "The full consequences of default are not predictable, but they certainly are not positive."
The holdouts – branded "vulture funds" by Argentinian president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner – are US hedge funds spearheaded by the billionaire Paul Singer's NML Capital, an affiliate of Elliott Management, and Aurelius Capital Management.
Steve Ellis, portfolio manager at Fidelity emerging market debt fund, said: "We expect contagion to other markets to be fairly limited. This is a highly technical legal case and a selective default.
"Argentina was isolated from international capital markets for years so we don't expect the default to distort any global capital flows. However, there will be remaining risks around a longer term default which would have negative impacts on the Argentine economy. At this stage, the market will likely price in a delay of payments should the government continue to deposit coupon payments until they can reach a deal with the holdouts in 2015."

Monday 12 November 2012

Italian government sues S&P anf Fitch


S&P and Fitch accused of market manipulation in Italy

Italian prosecutors have filed charges against Deven Sharma, the former president of Standard & Poor’s, and six other credit rating officials for issuing downgrades that destablised the country and fuelled the debt crisis.

A closeup taken on December 31, 2011 in Lille, shows triple
Italian prosecutors claim downgrades from S&P and Fitch destablised Italy and exacerbated the eurozone debt crisis Photo: AFP
Prosecutor Michele Ruggiero has asked a court in Trani, Italy to indict five S&P employees and two from Fitch Ratings for market manipulation, in a move that could trigger a raft of similar claims against rating setters around the world.
Mr Ruggiero, who has pursued the agencies since they placed Italy on negative watch last summer, accused them of “aggravated and continuous…market abuse”. He claimed they leaked “biased and distorted information” about Italy’s financial stability to traders.
In a statement, he said the rating agencies had tried to “destabilise Italy’s image, prestige and credit confidence on the financial markets, alter the value of Italian bonds by depreciating them [and] weaken the euro”.
As well as Mr Sharma, president of S&P from 2007 and 2011, the operational director for Fitch, David Riley, was also named in the legal filings.
Claims against Moody’s Investor Services were dropped. Fitch failed to return calls for comment. 
In a statement, S&P said: “These claims are entirely baseless and without any merit as our role is to publish independent opinions about creditworthiness according to our public and transparent methodologies, which we apply consistently around the world.
The agency added: “We will continue to perform our role without fear or favour of any investor, debt issuer or other external party and to defend our actions, our reputation and that of our people”.
Italy’s sovereign debt, which stands at 120pc of GDP and is the second highest in the eurozone after Greece, has been a focus for traders and investors for months. After warning about its concerns in May 2011, S&P downgraded Italy’s sovereign debt in September 2011 by one notch to a single-A rating. Another downgrade followed in January of this year, by two notches to BBB-. Fitch followed in February by downgrading Italy from A+ to A-.
Mr Ruggiero’s case was triggered after two consumer rights groups claimed the downgrades had been leaked to traders before being announced and had triggered big losses on the stockmarket in Milan.
If the Trani judge gives the go-ahead, it could be a test-case for dozens of other efforts to sue the credit rating agencies. Despite widespread criticism for failing to realise the debt they were rating as AAA was highly toxic, the agencies have so far managed to protect themselves from prosecution by claiming that their ratings are only opinions. In America, they have claimed protection under free speech rules.
More than 60 cases against the agencies are thought to have been filed around the world following the financial crisis but none with much success.
A breakthrough came three weeks ago when an Australian court ruled that S&P misled 12 councils in Australia by awarded a AAA rating to derivatives products created by ABN Amro which imploded less than two years after they were sold.
In July, McGraw-Hill, the American owners of S&P, admitted in a filing that US regulators, including the Securities & Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice, are investigating S&P’s ratings of structured products.

Tuesday 24 July 2012

Rating agency worker: 'I am genuinely frightened'


The global meltdown terrified the City. But many are more worried that no controls have been introduced since 2008

• This monologue is part of a series in which people in the financial sector speak about their working lives
Lehman Brothers fascia goes on sale at Christie's
'I was on holiday in the runup to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, when the crisis exploded. It was terrifying, absolutely terrifying.' Photograph: Linda Nylind for the Guardian
We are meeting in the heart of the City after the banking blog called on rating agency employees to talk about their experiences. The man I am meeting is British, in his early 40s, a fast talker and very friendly, the sort of person to apologise profusely when arriving four minutes late. He orders an orange juice.
The Joris Luyendijk banking blog
City of London
  1. Anthropologist and journalist Joris Luyendijk ventures into the world of finance to find out how it works
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  6. ... or on Twitter@JLbankingblog
"Every time I read about a new financial product, I think: 'Uh-oh.' Every new product is described in those same warm, fuzzy phrases: how great they are and how safe. Well, that's how credit default swaps and asset-backed securities were explained when banks were introducing these.
"I still get so angry when I think about it. Taking a job at a rating agency seemed a perfect match: drawing a good salary while providing a service of genuine value for society. We need ratings to work out how safe a company or an investment bond is, what the risk of default might be. If you can't trust it, you shouldn't do business with it – it's that simple.
"The reality was very different. What's making me even angrier is that we don't seem to have learned from the crisis. It's back to business as usual. I am no longer with a rating agency, and when I ask former colleagues what lessons they've taken away from the 2008 debacle, they give me a blank stare and say: 'That wasn't us, that was Moody's and Standard & Poor's.' But we just lucked out: our methods were similar.
"Moody's and S&P are the two major credit rating agencies in the world. Between them, they control 80% of the market and they are large, rich and powerful. Then there's Fitch, desperately trying to get the training wheels off and grow. Finally, there are specialised smaller agencies, one of which I was working for.
I was there when the great collapse of 2008 happened, giving me a ringside view. My agency was incredibly lucky never to have expanded into areas we didn't understand. Our head office was very conservative. This saved us.
"I was on holiday in the runup to the collapse of Lehman Brothers, when the crisis exploded. I remember opening up the paper every day and going: 'Oh my god.' It was terrifying, absolutely terrifying. We came so close to a global meltdown. There I was on my BlackBerry following events. Confusion, embarrassment, incredulity … I went through the whole gamut of human emotions. At some point my wife threatened to throw my BlackBerry in the lake if I didn't stop reading on my phone. I couldn't stop.
Now here we are four years later, and the most incredible thing has happened – we've learned nothing from the whole thing. Everybody pretends it's all OK. Sometimes I feel finance has reacted to the crisis the way a motorist might respond to a near-accident. There is the adrenaline surge directly after the lucky escape, followed by the huge shock when you realise what could have happened. But then, as the journey continues and the scene recedes in the rearview mirror, you tell yourself: maybe it wasn't that bad. The memory of your panic fades, and you even begin to misremember what happened. Was it really that bad?
"If you had told people at the height of the crisis that four years later we'd have had no fundamental changes, nobody would have believed you. Such was the panic and fear. But there we are. We went from 'We nearly died from this' to 'We survived this'.
"Have you read Gillian Tett's Fool's Gold about the crisis? It was exactly like that. You had bankers who did not understand their own complex financial products but thought that they did, and then raters who took their word for it. And nothing has fundamentally changed.
"As most people understand by now, lots of sub-prime mortgages were bundled by banks into financial products and sold on to investors. These believed they bought a very safe thing because the products had been rated triple A, which meant that there was only a 1% or so chance of a default.
"When the crisis hit, it hit hard, reality kicked in and the rating agencies suddenly downgraded triple A products to junk status in a matter of days. I won't call it fraud; I will call it a 'desperate revision of history'.
"Overall, it was more incompetence than outright fraud. If the sub-prime mess had been a huge conspiracy, it would have been very, very difficult to keep that a secret all these years. Too many people were involved. As far as the rating agencies were concerned, it was incompetence brought on by short-termist, bottom-line thinking by senior management who just wanted to make money. That meant rating as much as possible, as often as possible.
"The big change in rating agencies started around 10 years ago. Before that time Moody's was seen as boring, quiet, nerdish. Analysts there were seen as researchers, studious types. Then new management came in and they threw this out of the window. They pushed a culture that was driven by a desire to just keep rating. And they hired people that reflected their thinking.
"Imagine you are a rating agency and you see this new product coming in. You realise: if we rate it, we can keep on rating products like it, as this is the beginning of a continuing stream. And a huge stream it was: thousands and thousands of products offered for rating – and each for a fee.
"But, at the same time, rating agencies senior management have become so focused on the bottom line. There's constant cost-cutting. Demanding more from fewer and fewer people. Obviously, the quality of a rating declines when there's less time to study a company and its business plan. In my time at the company, there'd be no paid overtime, no time off after you worked through the weekend, let alone a word of thanks.
"Ultimately the work suffers, more so when there are endless internal restructurings. Two heads of department in my agency had their department organised out of existence overnight. A little while later, one was resurrected when top management realised what it had done. Higher management often doesn't properly understand what's going on in its own organisation. They are constantly redrawing the map, to the point where it feels like the map has become more important than the journey.
"When asked about the crisis, rating agencies use the defence that the bankers who designed those complex financial products did not understand them themselves. So how can rating agencies be blamed for not understanding them either**?
"But you shouldn't just rely on the information given to you by the people whose product or company you are rating. Imagine a doctor who bases his diagnosis only on what patients themselves are telling him. If they are lying to him, the doctor is lost. If they are lying to themselves, ditto. Or imagine you went to rate the UK and all you do is ask George Osborne how things are with the country.
"With every new financial product, raters should be asking: have the products been tested properly? Are they modelled for all possible conditions, so boom as well as bust times? Do we even know what it does in every phase of the economic cycle? Do we know how the product is likely to evolve over time, how will it behave when it develops into a bubble? The thing is, you cannot ask these questions if you are permanently understaffed and under-experienced.
"Young analysts are much cheaper than experienced ones. And giving people a thorough training again costs money and takes a long time. If you're young, you will assume that what you've seen until now in your life is 'normal', when it might not be. More than that, young people lack not only experience in business but also in life*. When interviewing management, you need to be able to read people, to have developed alarm bells for when they might be lying to you – or worse, lying to themselves.
"This problem exists on both sides of the divide. Many of the most dangerous financial products are designed by the same kind of fresh-faced, straight-out-of-university boys and girls. They have never seen a market panic. They are too young to know the true face of the market; they don't see how products can be misused. What they do see, and tell their bosses, is how their product can make money.
"Finance is continuously evolving, so you have highly niche financial areas that fewer and fewer understand. This all but guarantees misunderstandings. Rating agencies have mostly generalists and very few niche specialists. Often you get someone specialised in product A to rate product B, even though they are 20% different. This is where misunderstandings are quite likely to arise, when a specialist mistakenly believes that his expertise is applicable to adjacent niches.
"I am genuinely frightened. What are the ratings agencies missing at the moment? What are the companies that they're rating developing? What's the next miracle financial product and how badly is it being misunderstood?
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