Mark Nicholas in Cricinfo
What exactly is momentum in sport and how relevant is it? Do New Zealand's cricketers have enough momentum to carry them past Australia this weekend? Can momentum overcome talent?
Essentially momentum is form and confidence. It is usually associated with a winning streak, a succession of performances that either truly reflect ability or, better still, lift that ability beyond its norm. This is presently the case with Brendon McCullum, whose bravado is driven by the need to prove to his team that anything is possible. He wants them to play without inhibition of any kind and if that means breaking boundaries (metaphorically and literally) then so be it. This is because most cricketers play with traffic in their head. The game bares heart, mind and soul. Insecurity, affectation and failure are the enemies. The enemies play tricks and cause confusion. A clear head is the holy grail.
McCullum might as well be saying: "If you think you can or you think you can't, you are probably right."
In Riding the Wave of Momentum, American author Jeff Greenwald says: "The reason momentum is so powerful is the heightened sense of self-confidence it gives us. There is a phrase in sports psychology known as self-efficacy, which is simply a player's belief in his or her ability to perform a specific task or shot. Typically, a player's success depends on this efficacy."
I once asked Andy Flower what he thought was the most important part of his job as the England coach. He said it was to have the players ready and able to make the right choices under pressure. This caught me off guard but the more I thought about it, the more it made sense. Single moments define cricket matches. At critical times these may be any one of a brave shot made, or one not attempted; a brilliant ball that outthinks the batsman; smart anticipation by a fielder that leads to a run-out; a masterly move by the captain who understands what the opponent likes least.
Flower felt that for a period under Andrew Strauss, England consistently made good choices. This led them to become the No. 1 team in the world. The flaw in Strauss' team was the formulaic nature of the play. If an opponent had the mind to challenge it, and the efficacy to pull it off, the England team seemed oddly unable to react. Witness Hashim Amla's 311 at The Oval, during which Graeme Swann, a key figure for Strauss, was so comfortably played from a guard on and outside off stump. In all the time I watched Swann bowl, I never saw him so witless in response. And by such a simple tactic!
During a momentum shift, self-efficacy is very high as the players have immediate proof of their ability to match the challenge. They then experience subsequent increases in energy and motivation that lead to a feeling of enthusiasm and control. The corollary is that a sportsman's image of himself changes. He feels invincible, which, naturally enough, takes him to a higher level.
David Warner is a good illustration of this. First a devastating T20 batsman, then a prolific Test batsman and now an intimidating 50-over batsman. With the various ages of Warner have come a variety of changes - some to technique and application, some to attitude, others to fitness, health and lifestyle. His momentum has run parallel to the improved performances by the Australian team. This is no surprise. They go hand in hand. The trick for Warner now is to retain - some might say regain - humility.
In his formative years Robin Smith was coached by the highly intelligent former Natal player Grayson Heath. Probably Robin was over-coached. Heath grooved technique and shot execution. But he did not free the mind. This is less a criticism than a reflection of the time. It was a more respectful age, both in society and of bowlers, whose examination of technique was greater than it is now.
Heath - a wonderful man, with cricket set deep in his soul - would marvel at McCullum, or AB de Villiers, as much for their carefree approach as their inspirational effect. Heath preached an equation: A + H = C. Arrogance plus humility equals confidence. Both de Villiers and McCullum perfectly reflect the equation. Humility in a sportsman is paramount. Without humility, momentum will easily be derailed. After all, momentum is winning and no person or team wins all the time.
The key to not losing momentum is to retain perspective and to remain grounded. Why do Chelsea, dominant in the Premiership, suddenly concede four goals and lose to Bradford in the FA Cup? I wasn't there but the fair bet would be indifference (inexcusable) or complacency (believable). Hard as José Mourinho must work to avoid this, even he cannot invade the heads of his players and correct them in a season of some 60-odd matches.
The other explanation for such a defeat is fatigue. Mourinho watches this closely but tends to play his MVPs for long stretches. No sportsman can beat fatigue. It is inevitable. The point is that you will lose some time. How you lose is what matters. Did you cover all bases? If so, momentum need not be lost.
The test for New Zealand, though it may not apply to Saturday's group match, will be to deal with the pressure of an event that troubles the mind. Australian cricketers trouble the mind. McCullum's assault against England was a real f*** you of a performance. It said to his men: "They are not worthy." Had he got out cheaply, it would have said the same dismissive thing - like his approach in the chase against Scotland. Had New Zealand lost, it would have been awkward and may have derailed the team. But he didn't think for a minute they would lose and his innings sent that message loud and clear.
His captaincy does much the same: "We are all over you and don't forget it." His tactics challenge prosaic thinking. His bowlers are empowered to take wickets. His fieldsmen are inspired by his own startling fielding performances. This style is more All Black than Black Cap. But for Richie McCaw read Brendon McCullum.
All Black or Black Caps? © Getty Images
The journey has not been easy. Ross Taylor was popular and the fall-out from McCullum's obvious desire to take his job was unpleasant. Taylor withdrew into himself, a loss of cricket expression that New Zealand could ill afford. Former players raged against the machine. McCullum had to deliver or he was toast.
Like Taylor, he is a good man. Arguably, he is more secure. This tournament will define him.
In the face of Australia, the Black Caps must, and surely will, continue to play McCullum's game. This means sticking to the flow, not overthinking or overanalysing. The minute you change approach, or even marginalise, you screw up. If you focus too much on the outcome, it becomes difficult to play so freely. An attacking mindset can all too easily become a defensive mindset. The outcome needs to be a given. Concern for the consequences diverts attention from what must be done.
Australia are the more talented team but they have been sleeping for a fortnight; the captain has been immobilised for three months. This is the time to get them. Momentum should carry New Zealand over this line because the consequences are not a major issue. Come the knockout stage, the traffic will creep in. Creep, creep until the brain is scrambled. Can McCullum's bold interpretation of cricket remain New Zealand's force when the stakes are at their highest? Or will momentum suddenly count for nothing?
'People will forgive you for being wrong, but they will never forgive you for being right - especially if events prove you right while proving them wrong.' Thomas Sowell
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Showing posts with label form. Show all posts
Showing posts with label form. Show all posts
Thursday, 26 February 2015
Monday, 16 February 2015
How much can a captain influence short-term performance?
Ed Smith in Cricinfo
People who don't believe that the media indulges honeymoon periods should consider the relative treatment of Alastair Cook and Eoin Morgan. Having survived a media storm as Test captain in the summer of 2014, Cook was eventually sacked as ODI captain at the 11th hour before the World Cup. Most pundits felt this was a good idea, even though it left Cook bereft of his dream of captaining in a World Cup, and left Morgan very little time to put his stamp on the team.
Now Morgan has scored three noughts in his last four innings and four noughts in his last seven. Many of those who called for Cook's sacking seem very relaxed about this, citing's Morgan superb natural talent and better track record as an ODI match-winner. Yet Cook's resilience and capacity for enduring pressure was equally well-established. In short, I'm less convinced that Morgan's bad form exists in a different category from Cook's.
The reasons given for Cook's sacking were: 1) his poor form with the bat, and 2) the need to protect his long-term prospects as an England player. The selectors felt that continuing with Cook for the World Cup might radically deplete his resources. Effectively it would burn through too many miles on the clock, racing Cook towards a hastier exit from the English game. Though no one seemed to notice at the time, exactly the same arguments could have been presented as reasons for not making Morgan captain either. If Cook was in danger of ending the World Cup exhausted and short of confidence, Morgan might end it disillusioned and disengaged, one step closer to a career oriented to the roving life of a T20 specialist. It is far too early to be certain - England could still win the competition with Morgan as its hero - but it is a very real possibility that in sacking one captain England will end up undermining two careers.
There is a much deeper question. How much does the captaincy, over the short term, affect performance? Morgan or Cook? Bailey or Clarke? Everyone has a view and can marshal the evidence to support their prejudices. It makes a nice "talking point", as the saying goes. That does not, however, mean the decision under review is important in explaining events.
Put differently, what if England would have lost anyway on Saturday, whoever was captaining? And suppose that Australia would have won, whichever of their strong captaincy candidates was in charge? In obsessing about the psychodrama at the top, we ignore the underlying fundamentals.
There are two central trends in the evolution of professional sport and its coverage. The odd thing, however, is that the two movements are contradictory, indeed irreconcilable.
The first is the cult of personality the hero, the champion, the winner, the master of mind games, the tactical wizard, the leader of men, blessed with the Midas touch. This is the way elite sport is frequently presented and analysed. Why? First, because it fits the modern obsession with celebrity; secondly, because it is endlessly useful as a media "talking point" - big personalities are always easier to discuss than systems or ideas.
Then there is the underlying reality of how professional sport is actually evolving. Every top team now employs a massive backroom staff of coaches, physios and analysts, all of whom are trying to find a tiny incremental advantage, a fraction of 1% here or there, to help their team. The idea that one single mind controls the whole team is laughably out of date. Even in football, where the manager is like the cricket captain, coach and selection panel rolled into one, he actually sits atop a vast coaching machine. Yes, he steers the wheel, but there are many more cogs in the machine than ever before.
In cricket, the captain's power and control are increasingly shared with other influences on the team. He can still make a difference, of course. But he exists in a highly professional context in which control is shared widely.
I was recently asked to write a new introduction to the reissue of Mike Brearley's iconic book The Art of Captaincy. One thing that struck me was how much more control Brearley had over his teams than any captain would have today. On being recalled as England captain in 1981, one of his first acts was to restore the pre-match warm-up and stretching routine. It is unimaginable today - given the number of physios and trainers - that this area of team life would be the preserve of the captain.
Critics of captains today lightly ignore a contradiction: modern captains certainly have less power than ever, yet they are still held overwhelmingly accountable for decisions and tactics that usually originated in discussions with the team's whole top table.
We have not yet mentioned by far the biggest constraint of all on any captain: the form and quality of the players.
In his post-match interview, Morgan was asked by Andrew Strauss why the England death bowlers favoured the bouncer over the yorker. Morgan's answer was that the boundaries at the MCG are shorter straight (65 yards) than square of the wicket (85 yards). Yorkers tend to be hit down the ground, whereas short balls are often hit square of the wicket. So as the fielding captain, Morgan was trying to force batsmen to play the harder, riskier shot. Had England bowled well, this would have sounded shrewd and canny. Because England bowled badly, it sounded too clever by half. In other words, it is the bowlers who make and unmake the success of tactics, not captains.
I will always believe in the power of great leadership, especially by gradually improving team culture over the long term. Right now, however, the correct answer to the question "Bailey or Clarke?" and "Morgan or Cook?" is: "Nice talking point, but it doesn't explain very much about the result."
People who don't believe that the media indulges honeymoon periods should consider the relative treatment of Alastair Cook and Eoin Morgan. Having survived a media storm as Test captain in the summer of 2014, Cook was eventually sacked as ODI captain at the 11th hour before the World Cup. Most pundits felt this was a good idea, even though it left Cook bereft of his dream of captaining in a World Cup, and left Morgan very little time to put his stamp on the team.
Now Morgan has scored three noughts in his last four innings and four noughts in his last seven. Many of those who called for Cook's sacking seem very relaxed about this, citing's Morgan superb natural talent and better track record as an ODI match-winner. Yet Cook's resilience and capacity for enduring pressure was equally well-established. In short, I'm less convinced that Morgan's bad form exists in a different category from Cook's.
The reasons given for Cook's sacking were: 1) his poor form with the bat, and 2) the need to protect his long-term prospects as an England player. The selectors felt that continuing with Cook for the World Cup might radically deplete his resources. Effectively it would burn through too many miles on the clock, racing Cook towards a hastier exit from the English game. Though no one seemed to notice at the time, exactly the same arguments could have been presented as reasons for not making Morgan captain either. If Cook was in danger of ending the World Cup exhausted and short of confidence, Morgan might end it disillusioned and disengaged, one step closer to a career oriented to the roving life of a T20 specialist. It is far too early to be certain - England could still win the competition with Morgan as its hero - but it is a very real possibility that in sacking one captain England will end up undermining two careers.
There is a much deeper question. How much does the captaincy, over the short term, affect performance? Morgan or Cook? Bailey or Clarke? Everyone has a view and can marshal the evidence to support their prejudices. It makes a nice "talking point", as the saying goes. That does not, however, mean the decision under review is important in explaining events.
Put differently, what if England would have lost anyway on Saturday, whoever was captaining? And suppose that Australia would have won, whichever of their strong captaincy candidates was in charge? In obsessing about the psychodrama at the top, we ignore the underlying fundamentals.
There are two central trends in the evolution of professional sport and its coverage. The odd thing, however, is that the two movements are contradictory, indeed irreconcilable.
The first is the cult of personality the hero, the champion, the winner, the master of mind games, the tactical wizard, the leader of men, blessed with the Midas touch. This is the way elite sport is frequently presented and analysed. Why? First, because it fits the modern obsession with celebrity; secondly, because it is endlessly useful as a media "talking point" - big personalities are always easier to discuss than systems or ideas.
Then there is the underlying reality of how professional sport is actually evolving. Every top team now employs a massive backroom staff of coaches, physios and analysts, all of whom are trying to find a tiny incremental advantage, a fraction of 1% here or there, to help their team. The idea that one single mind controls the whole team is laughably out of date. Even in football, where the manager is like the cricket captain, coach and selection panel rolled into one, he actually sits atop a vast coaching machine. Yes, he steers the wheel, but there are many more cogs in the machine than ever before.
In cricket, the captain's power and control are increasingly shared with other influences on the team. He can still make a difference, of course. But he exists in a highly professional context in which control is shared widely.
I was recently asked to write a new introduction to the reissue of Mike Brearley's iconic book The Art of Captaincy. One thing that struck me was how much more control Brearley had over his teams than any captain would have today. On being recalled as England captain in 1981, one of his first acts was to restore the pre-match warm-up and stretching routine. It is unimaginable today - given the number of physios and trainers - that this area of team life would be the preserve of the captain.
Critics of captains today lightly ignore a contradiction: modern captains certainly have less power than ever, yet they are still held overwhelmingly accountable for decisions and tactics that usually originated in discussions with the team's whole top table.
We have not yet mentioned by far the biggest constraint of all on any captain: the form and quality of the players.
In his post-match interview, Morgan was asked by Andrew Strauss why the England death bowlers favoured the bouncer over the yorker. Morgan's answer was that the boundaries at the MCG are shorter straight (65 yards) than square of the wicket (85 yards). Yorkers tend to be hit down the ground, whereas short balls are often hit square of the wicket. So as the fielding captain, Morgan was trying to force batsmen to play the harder, riskier shot. Had England bowled well, this would have sounded shrewd and canny. Because England bowled badly, it sounded too clever by half. In other words, it is the bowlers who make and unmake the success of tactics, not captains.
I will always believe in the power of great leadership, especially by gradually improving team culture over the long term. Right now, however, the correct answer to the question "Bailey or Clarke?" and "Morgan or Cook?" is: "Nice talking point, but it doesn't explain very much about the result."
Wednesday, 16 January 2013
The zone and the importance of imagination
A sportsman
in the zone, like an artist, has both a wider and a narrower focus. He
has the ability to be in the game and yet stand above it, seeing it
clearly
Ed Smith
December 16, 2012
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Mike Brearley,
the former England and Middlesex captain, recently gave a talk about
"the zone". Before cricket, Mike was an academic philosopher; after
cricket, he became a psychoanalyst. Taken as a whole, professional sport
is a relatively small proportion of Mike's career. But it afforded him
an intense period of practical absorption and experience. Looking back
on three careers spread over one varied life, Mike spoke to an audience at the London School of Economics about what cricket had taught him about concentration, technique and freedom.
Sometimes the best way to define something is to describe its
antithesis. "The zone" can be a slippery concept. But we all know what bad
form feels like. Brearley began with a memorable description of a
player in crisis: "We try to focus on all sorts of things that should be
unconscious - like the centipede, who, trying to think about each leg
before it moves, ends up on its back on a ditch."
"The zone" is the opposite. When we are in the zone, there is a sense of
effortlessness, your body acting as though it does not require
instructions from the mind. Many batsmen have written about the zone,
but this was the first time I've heard anyone describe "captaincy in the
zone".
It was 1982 and Brearley was captaining Middlesex against
Nottinghamshire. It was a bouncy pitch, and he was trying to think of a
way to dismiss the opposition star player, Clive Rice. Brearley not only
sensed there was a chance of Rice misjudging the bounce - many captains
would have done that - he also began to imagine as though he, Brearley,
was in fact the batsman.
In Brearley's phrase, "Here I felt my way into Rice's body and the shape
of the shot. I sensed there might be a thick outside edge, and I
pictured the ball flying to a deep wide slip, perhaps 20 yards back. I
put Clive Radley in this position, and shortly afterwards it went
straight to him at catching height. When something similar happened in
the second innings, this time on the leg side, Rice thought there was
something magical about my captaincy; in fact, it was a mixture of
bodily intuition laced with a great deal of luck."
Brearley is describing something rarely discussed in a sporting context:
the practical value of imagination. It transcended merely "visualising"
a probable outcome. Brearley used his imagination, as a novelist might,
to bring to life a very unlikely potential scenario. "Many years
later," he added, "I saw a film of Bushmen hunting a deer on foot. As
they followed the tracks of the deer in the stony ground, the hunters
'became' the deer, using the identification to find the faint footprints
in the ground; they shaped themselves into the way of moving and likely
course of the deer."
It is a rare perspective. We hear a lot about plans, very little about
imagination; much about strategy, little about adaptiveness. Brearley's
point is that a captain has to balance conscious planning with
imaginative hunches.
A team can also enter "the zone", just as a single player does. Brearley
explained what happens when a team is "hot": "Each player breathes in
the others at their best, is strengthened by that identification, and
gives off similar vibes to the rest of the team."
Note how the positivity becomes self-perpetuating, even contagious. That
is why good teams always have a strong core of senior players: this
core takes the weaker "waverers" with them on the journey towards
self-belief. Thus the team - rather than being just a list of
individuals - becomes an organic entity in its own right. One of the
truest phrases about good teams is that they become "more than the sum
of their parts".
What of the individual? One of the thrilling aspects of watching a
player in the zone - and I am thinking more of football and rugby than
cricket - is the sense that he is both aware of the whole pitch and yet
totally absorbed in the small details; he is ahead of the game, yet also
living in the here and now.
I once had a memorable conversation with the film director Stephen
Frears about the French footballer Zinedine Zidane. Frears saw parallels
between a football playmaker in full flow and a film-maker in the zone.
"What I really admire - and you see it particularly in players who are
just past their prime - is the feeling that what they have lost
physically they make up for by seeing the whole picture. They grasp the
shape of the game. They can somehow stand above it and see it clearly."
Brearley calls this "seeing the wood and the trees: he looks and takes
in the detail; but he also looks with a broader gaze, in a way that
allows unconscious ideas and connections to flow". The sportsman in the
zone, like the artist, has both a wider and a narrower focus.
This sounds very abstract. What does it feel like in more practical
terms? I would say I felt fully "in the zone" only a few times in my
career. One day, when I made 149 for Kent in about a session and a half,
stands out. And, looking back on it, there was that sense of both
narrower and wider focus. I remember being aware of gaps in the field.
In fact, there seemed to be a ready-made "channel" - it seemed to exist
in its own right - running in a line to the boundary, dissecting mid-off
and extra cover.
Time and again I hit the ball into that channel, as
though I had only to aim vaguely in that direction and my body
subconsciously directed the ball exactly into the gap between the
fielders. Without straining or thinking about it, I could both watch the
ball onto the bat, and yet also see that channel leading to the
boundary rope.
Later I tried to recall what batting felt like that day: "You stay in
the present, enjoying it for what it is: the feel of the bat in the
hand, the rhythm of the ball arriving in sync with the shot, the feel of
the earth under feet, a lightness and yet a rootedness. Your mind is
revving at the same rate as the pace of the game. There is no sense of
being rushed (the ball arriving too soon) or impatience (wanting the
balls to be delivered quicker). There is harmony. I felt very clearly,
on that day in July 2003, that my role was to not get in the way - to
make myself the conduit more than the agent."
Brearley described batting in "the zone" in similar terms. But on one
point I disagreed, or at least had a different take on things. Brearley
interpreted "the zone" as an extreme version of the more common
phenomenon of "good form". At one level that is obviously true. But I
feel that "the zone" exists in a different sphere to the question of
form. Form is an achievement, the zone is a feeling. A batsman can enjoy
a spell of scoring heavily without getting anywhere close to the zone.
The zone is subtler than form, more mysterious.
I would draw a distinction between success that follows from an effort of will and success that is just allowed to happen. I associate the zone with "letting go", relinquishing the controlling grip of your own will power | |||
In particular, I would draw a distinction between success that follows
from an effort of will and success that is just allowed to happen. (I
acknowledge that even the latter relies on a great deal of preliminary
hard work and practice.) I associate the zone with "letting go",
relinquishing the controlling grip of your own will power. In the zone,
the world is co-operative; you do not have to bend it to your will.
An awkward, perhaps impossible, question follows: what is the
sportsman's optimal relationship with his own will power? On the one
hand, we know that will power drives athletes to many of their
victories. And yet I also believe that your controlling mind prevents
you from playing at your absolute best.
So would you achieve more if you trusted yourself just to "play",
instead of trying to manipulate events with your will power and strength
of character? I suspect the answer is different for different players.
A good example of two opposite approaches is the rivalry of Rafael Nadal
and Roger Federer. Nadal relies on his phenomenal will power - as
though he draws confidence from the strength of his own character.
Federer, in contrast, seems to play best when he does not interfere with
his own talent. It is as though Federer's brilliance exists of itself,
in its own right: he merely has to set it free. It must be difficult to
advise Federer when he is losing: "try harder", "fight more" - those
ideas seem entirely inappropriate for his game.
Maybe for some players (the Federer type), the zone is almost a
prerequisite of performance. For others (the Nadal type), the zone is
practically an irrelevance.
****
At the dinner after Mike's talk, where the guests were mostly LSE
professors, I reflected how easily he could be mistaken for a
distinguished lecturer in philosophy. And yet each of the worlds he has
touched - academia, sport, psychoanalysis - has benefited from insights
and experiences he developed in the others. Had Mike lived a narrower
life, and focused on one strand to the exclusion of the others, I
suspect he would have had a less surprising life - and, I think, a less
influential one. Breadth, paradoxically, can lead to depth.
By nature I am an optimist: my firm conviction is that sport is getting
better in many respects. But I could not escape a feeling of sadness
that it is highly unlikely that a similar career could happen in today's
ultra-professional sporting world. I doubt an academic philosopher in
his 20s would be persuaded to return to professional cricket, or that a
professional cricketer, having retired from the game in early middle
age, would subsequently pursue a full career in psychotherapy.
Perhaps Mike's insights will help a new generation of players get into
the zone more often. But I suspect the particular zone he experienced is
an increasingly uninhabited space.
Thursday, 12 April 2012
When is poor form just randomness?
Ed Smith in Cricinfo
There is a nasty moment in the career of every coach or captain when he
looks around the dressing room during one of his own team talks and asks
himself the startling but pertinent question, "Who am I talking to?
These words, these exhortation, these commands - who are they aimed at?
Who do I want to be listening? Is anyone? And should anyone be listening, even to me?"
And yet all captains were once themselves in the ranks, so they must
still remember the days when they were among the non-listeners rather
than the un-listened to. One colleague of mine kept a newspaper
crossword (unobtrusively placed next to his left thigh) to look at
during every team talk. As the coach yelled and blamed players, my
team-mate would nod sagely, as if in agreement. But he wasn't nodding
about the team talk at all; he was nodding in satisfaction at having
cracked nine across.
And I don't blame him. In fact, the ability to tune out of team talks is
a vital preliminary for preserving your sanity as a player. Why?
Because cricket is a very difficult game to generalise about and because
it is very rare that all the components of a team underperform
simultaneously. Far more often - after any day's play - the dressing
room contains a wide variety of individual performances. So why should a
player who has prepared optimally and performed admirably allow his
mood to be ruined by a team talk that is aimed entirely at someone else?
Cricket is famously a team game played by individuals - a fact it is
all too easy to forget when you are speaking to the whole team.
Look at England's performances in Test matches this winter and ask
yourself what changed between the abject failures of Pakistan and the
superb victory of the second Test in Colombo?
The bowling? No change - it was excellent throughout. The wicketkeeping?
No change. The fielding? No change. The body language? A symptom rather
than a cause. The team mentality? No change that I could discern. The
effort and discipline? No change that I could pick up.
The difference was very simple: England succeeded in getting runs in
Colombo where they failed to get runs in the UAE and in Galle. Only one
element of their game had been problematic. And once England's batting
was fixed - or fixed itself - the team returned to winning ways and
preserved their status as the No. 1-ranked Test team in the world.
It is alarmingly simple. All that disappointment and suffering - the
defeats, the soul searching, the media criticism, the frankly baffling
idea that Andrew Strauss ought to be sacked as captain, and the barking
mad suggestion that Kevin Pietersen was no longer good enough - it was
all caused by something utterly straightforward: England's six frontline
batsmen simply weren't scoring enough runs.
How can we explain the fact that so many good players were out of form
simultaneously? The coach, Andy Flower, was typically self-critical in
blaming the team's preparation for the batting failures earlier this
winter. I have a different theory. England's collective batting woes did
not necessarily have a direct "cause" of the sort that journalists and
fans like to believe must always exist. It may not have been a question
of effort or preparation or even collective mood.
Team batting failures are sometimes caused by the simple fact of
randomness. What do I mean by randomness? Imagine the career scores of
each batsman in the team printed in sequence on a piece on paper. It
would look like a cardiogram - the upward spikes are the hundreds, the
lowest points are the zeroes. Now imagine six of these cardiograms - one
for each of the team's batsmen - laid one above the other on the same
page.
England's collective batting woes did not necessarily have a direct "cause" of the sort that journalists and fans like to believe must always exist. It may not have been a question of effort or preparation or even collective mood | |||
If the same batting team stays together for a long enough period of time
- and England's selection policy is very stable - there will inevitably
be a time at which all six of the cardiograms are at a low
point. Obviously this is a catastrophe for the team: no one is getting
any runs! But it does not follow that the batsmen are slacking or the
coaches are useless or the tactics are flawed. It really is just one of
those things.
The question, and it is a hugely problematic one, is: how can we know if
it really was random rather than "caused" by errors of approach and
application? There is no complete answer to that. It is a question of
judgement; and good judgement is what singles out the top coaches and
captains.
The best coach I've ever worked with constantly used to ask if what
everyone else was calling "form" was in fact randomness. When my team
was bowled out for a low score, he'd say, "Did you actually bat badly?
Or did you just nick everything?" He meant that sometimes the ratio of
edges to plays-and-misses is unusually high. The underlying logic is
important: it is a sign of wisdom not to draw too many conclusions from a
small sample of outcomes.
If this coach sounds like a soft touch, don't be fooled. He sometimes
asked the same question in reverse form when we won. He would shock me
by saying, "You won, but for much of the game you were outplayed. I
think you need to consider changes." The point - a point that most
students of sport entirely miss - is that the foundations of lasting
success are built on the correct assessment of a team's fundamentals:
its ability, its cohesion, its discipline and preparation. Those
fundamentals change slowly, and it is easy to misinterpret a random
fluctuation as a fundamental crisis.
Look at other sports. Last autumn, after a string of defeats, Arsenal
languished at the bottom of the Premier League. There was a clamour for
Arsene Wenger, their superb manager, to be sacked - despite his stellar
record of producing successful teams while also balancing the budget.
Does anyone now believe that Arsenal would have recovered so brilliantly
(they are third in the table and set for yet another year of
qualification for Europe) under a different manager? No, what was
required was for Arsenal's board and fans to hold their nerve instead of
over-react to a small sample of poor results.
The same applies to this England team. They had a shock this winter.
They are right to ask themselves tough questions about how such a good
team lost four consecutive Test matches. But they would be wrong to
think it is because they are picking the wrong players or have the wrong
captain.
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