How Accurate are the Election Predictions of India's Illegal Bookmakers?

Girish Menon

'Satta Bazaar' is the name given to Indian bookmakers. Bookmaking is banned in India, however there exists what appears to be a huge underground network of bookies and punters who take bets on most events where the outcome is unknown. Here, I am going to test the bookies' predictions on the Indian election results with the actual results which will be available to the public on 4 June 2024.

---Also read

Indian Elections 2024 - A Personal Note

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Economic Truism: The Wisdom of Crowds

In economics, market prices, such as share prices in stock markets, are generally considered an accurate reflection of ground realities and available information. This is because share prices are determined by the collective buying and selling decisions of numerous investors, each acting on their analysis of a company's fundamentals, future prospects, and other relevant factors. Similarly, bookmaker odds and prices in betting markets are driven by the weight of money being placed on different outcomes, reflecting the collective assessments and expectations of bettors. Just as share prices adjust dynamically to incorporate new information, bookmakers continuously update their odds based on the flow of bets, aiming to balance their books and minimize risk exposure. This market-driven price discovery mechanism ensures that both share prices and bookmaker odds serve as reasonably accurate reflections of the underlying realities and expectations of market participants.

So let me list the predictions of various Indian bookmakers as mentioned in Times Now's programme on 1 June 2024 around 5-6 pm.

Satta Bazaar on 1 June 2024	BJP Seats	NDA (BJP’s alliance) seats	Actual Results on 4 June 2024
Phalodi	270-300		BJP-240, NDA-293
Palanpur	216	247
Vijayawada	270-290	300+
Hyderabad	270-290	300+
Ahmedabad	301-303
Karnal	235	263
Belgaum	223	265
Kolkata	218	261
Indore	260	283
Mumbai	295-305

Then there are the exit polls, most of them seem to predict a return of the BJP government with probably more seats than in 2019. However, I have preferred to stick to the bookies' predictions because the bookmakers and punters are betting with their money and so it will help me test the economic principle that market prices (satta bazaar prices) reflect reality accurately.

Why don’t auditors find fraud?

Stephen Foley in the FT 

For decades, investors have lamented how rarely external auditors uncover corporate fraud. From Enron to Wirecard, the cry after each scandal is, where were the auditors? The Association of Certified Fraud Examiners’ biennial report on how workplace fraud gets detected has typically shown auditors are the ones uncovering the wrongdoing only 4 per cent of the time. 

Bad news. The latest report out a few weeks ago said the number is down to 3 per cent. Whistleblower hotlines and other internal controls may have helped some companies themselves discover some malfeasance earlier, but what about when management is the perpetrator or a corporate culture is rotten? A survey of investors by the Center for Audit Quality, a trade group for large accounting firms, found that 57 per cent thought the current system “frequently” failed to detect illegal acts. 

Regulators fear auditors are failing in their role as a last line of defence for investors against corporate shenanigans. Audit firms argue that company executives are responsible for the accuracy of financial statements and that the role of an auditor role is only to provide reasonable assurance — not a guarantee — that a financial statement is free from material misstatement. 

It is an argument that has prompted the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s chief accountant, Paul Munter, to exclaim to me on more than one occasion that he is fed up hearing from auditors what they do not do. 

But a series of proposals to clarify and extend auditors’ responsibilities has now been made. In the US, the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board is revamping rules on how auditors must look for and deal with evidence of a client’s non-compliance with laws and regulations (Noclar, in the jargon). The intent is to force auditors to cast a wider net for matters that could have a material effect on a company’s financials, even indirectly by leading to big fines or regulatory action that threatens the business. 

Audit firms have responded that they cannot be expected to make legal judgments, and that the huge amount of extra work implied by the Noclar proposal as currently drafted probably will not uncover anything significant that current procedures do not already. 

A narrower proposal in the UK — which says auditors do not have to probe every minor law or regulation, and can use management’s own compliance programmes as a starting point — has elicited almost as thunderous a set of comment letters in opposition. 

The latest move is by the International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board, which sets rules that are used as a template by scores of countries around the world. It has proposed strengthening standards on fraud detection to emphasise that auditors must look for financial misstatements that might not be “quantitatively material” but which might be “qualitatively material”, depending on who instigated the fraud and why it was perpetrated. 

The emergence of all these proposals is no coincidence, and it is not as if audit firms themselves do not see room for improvement. PwC last year promised it would overhaul its fraud detection procedures and probe its clients’ whistleblower programmes more closely, among other reforms to boost audit quality. PwC boss Tim Ryan tried and failed to get all the Big Four firms to make a common pledge on these issues. 

Other leaders still talk of an “expectations gap” between what investors want an audit to be and what it really is, as if it is the investors that need to be educated instead of the profession that needs to change. 

An alternative response to some of the current proposals would embrace them to strengthen the hand of auditors. They provide new justification to pry open clients’ businesses, push back on hostile finance chiefs and chief executives, and flag more matters of concern to directors, to investors or to the authorities — to follow through on the professional scepticism that is supposed to be at the heart of the auditors’ creed. There is room for agreement, even on the contentious Noclar proposal. 

Better still for auditors, there is evidence investors are willing to pay for a more robust service. The CAQ survey showed a majority would support auditors charging an additional 20 per cent or more to cover the extra work of rooting out non-compliance. 

A high-quality audit is sometimes called a “credence good”, because its value is difficult to calculate. But, as the shareholders of Enron, Wirecard and countless others will tell you, the cost of a bad audit can be so much more.

How The CIA Teaches Men to Read a Woman's Mind

 

A Level Economics 82: Types of Inflation

 1. Demand-Pull Inflation:

Demand-pull inflation occurs when the aggregate demand for goods and services in an economy exceeds the available supply, leading to an increase in the general price level. It is driven by factors such as increased consumer spending, business investment, government expenditure, or net exports. When demand outstrips supply, producers may raise prices to maximize profits, resulting in inflationary pressures.

Causes of Demand-Pull Inflation:

1. Economic Growth: Rapid economic growth can lead to increased consumer demand for goods and services, driving up prices.

2. Increased Consumer Spending: When consumers have more disposable income or access to credit, they tend to spend more, contributing to higher demand.

3. Expansionary Monetary Policy: Central banks may lower interest rates or increase the money supply, making borrowing cheaper and stimulating spending.

4. Government Spending: Increased government expenditure on infrastructure, welfare programs, or public projects can boost demand.

Example of Demand-Pull Inflation:

Let's consider an economy with a high level of economic growth. People have rising incomes, and consumer confidence is strong. As a result, consumers increase their spending on various goods and services. Businesses, in turn, try to meet the growing demand, but their capacity to produce goods and services is limited in the short run. To maintain profitability, producers may increase prices, leading to an overall rise in the price level.

2. Cost-Push Inflation:

Cost-push inflation arises when the cost of production increases for businesses, leading to higher prices for goods and services. This type of inflation can be caused by various factors that impact production costs, such as rising wages, higher raw material prices, increased taxes, or supply chain disruptions. As businesses face higher costs, they may pass them on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

Causes of Cost-Push Inflation:

1. Rising Wages: When labor unions negotiate higher wages for workers, businesses' labor costs increase, leading to cost-push inflation.

2. Higher Raw Material Prices: Increased prices of essential inputs, such as oil, metals, or agricultural commodities, can raise production costs.

3. Indirect Taxes: Government policies that impose higher taxes on businesses, such as excise duties, can lead to cost-push inflation.

4. Supply Disruptions: Natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, or other disruptions to the supply chain can reduce production and raise costs.

Example of Cost-Push Inflation:

Suppose an economy heavily relies on imported oil for its energy needs. If there is a sudden surge in global oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, the cost of producing goods and services will rise. Transportation costs and costs for energy-intensive industries will also increase. As a result, businesses may increase prices to maintain profit margins, leading to cost-push inflation.

Conclusion:

Demand-pull and cost-push inflation are two different types of inflation with distinct causes. Demand-pull inflation is driven by excessive aggregate demand relative to supply, while cost-push inflation results from rising production costs. A mix of these inflationary pressures can also occur simultaneously, impacting an economy's overall price level and stability. Policymakers need to carefully analyze the underlying factors to implement appropriate measures to control inflation and maintain macroeconomic stability.

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The Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) is an economic theory that posits a direct relationship between the quantity of money in circulation and the general price level in an economy. The theory suggests that changes in the money supply will proportionally affect the price level, assuming that other factors remain constant.

Explanation of the Quantity Theory of Money:

The Quantity Theory of Money is based on the equation of exchange, which is expressed as:

MV = PT

Where: M = Money supply V = Velocity of money (the number of times a unit of money changes hands in a given period) P = Price level (average price of goods and services) T = Total transactions or real output in the economy

According to the QTM, the total nominal expenditure in an economy (MV) should be equal to the total nominal value of transactions (PT). Therefore, if the money supply (M) increases, and the velocity of money (V) and the total transactions (T) remain constant, the price level (P) should increase.

Link to Inflation:

The Quantity Theory of Money provides a crucial link between the money supply and inflation. The theory suggests that an increase in the money supply, with all other factors held constant, will lead to an increase in the general price level. This is because the additional money injected into the economy will increase the overall demand for goods and services, leading to upward pressure on prices.

Critiques and Evaluation of the Quantity Theory of Money:

1. Ceteris Paribus Assumption: The QTM relies on the assumption that other factors affecting prices, such as velocity and real output, remain constant. In the real world, these factors can change, making the theory less applicable in dynamic economic conditions.

2. Velocity of Money: The concept of velocity of money, or how frequently money changes hands, is difficult to measure accurately. Changes in velocity can significantly impact the theory's predictions.

3. Long-Run vs. Short-Run: The QTM is often seen as more applicable to the long run, where changes in the money supply may have a clearer impact on prices. In the short run, other factors like expectations, supply shocks, and market imperfections can influence inflation.

4. Real vs. Nominal Variables: The QTM focuses on nominal variables (money supply and price level) but does not consider real variables (such as changes in productivity or technology) that can affect inflation.

5. Quantity Theory and Central Bank Policies: Critics argue that the QTM oversimplifies the relationship between money supply and inflation, and central banks must consider various factors, including interest rates, exchange rates, and economic growth, while formulating monetary policies.

Conclusion:

The Quantity Theory of Money provides a fundamental link between the money supply and inflation, suggesting that increases in the money supply may lead to higher price levels if other factors remain constant. However, the theory has its limitations and may be more applicable in the long run with certain assumptions. Economists and policymakers often use the QTM as a framework, but they also consider other economic variables and factors when analyzing and addressing inflationary pressures in an economy.

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Expectations play a crucial role in sustaining and driving inflation through mechanisms such as the wage-price spiral. Expectations refer to the beliefs and anticipations that individuals, businesses, and policymakers hold about future economic conditions, including inflation.

Role of Expectations in Sustaining and Driving Inflation:

1. Wage-Price Spiral:

   • The wage-price spiral is a self-reinforcing process where rising wages lead to higher production costs for businesses, which, in turn, result in higher prices for goods and services. As prices increase, workers demand higher wages to maintain their purchasing power. If businesses comply and raise wages, it contributes to higher production costs, leading to another round of price increases, starting the cycle again.
   • Expectations of future inflation play a crucial role in this process. When workers and businesses anticipate higher future inflation, they are more likely to negotiate and agree on higher wages and prices in the present, even without any immediate cost pressures. These higher expectations of future inflation feed into the wage-price spiral, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

2. Inflationary Expectations and Consumer Behavior:

   • Expectations of future inflation can influence consumer behavior. If individuals expect prices to rise rapidly in the future, they may decide to make purchases now to avoid higher costs later. This increased demand for goods and services in the present puts upward pressure on prices and contributes to higher inflation.

3. Central Bank Credibility:

   • The credibility of the central bank in maintaining price stability and controlling inflation is crucial. If the public perceives the central bank as committed to its inflation target and capable of controlling inflation, inflation expectations are likely to be anchored. On the other hand, if the central bank is perceived as unable to manage inflation, expectations of higher future inflation may become embedded in the economy, leading to a rise in actual inflation.

Expectations Management and Inflation Control:

To manage and control inflation, policymakers and central banks must pay attention to managing inflation expectations. Here's how they can do it:

1. Clear Communication: Central banks should communicate their inflation targets and commitment to price stability effectively. Clear and transparent communication helps anchor inflation expectations and fosters confidence in the central bank's ability to control inflation.

2. Credible Monetary Policy: Policymakers need to implement credible and consistent monetary policies to demonstrate their commitment to price stability. A disciplined approach to monetary policy can help shape expectations and prevent the wage-price spiral.

3. Forward Guidance: Central banks can provide forward guidance about their future policy actions, helping to shape expectations and guide economic agents' behavior.

4. Inflation Targeting: Adopting an inflation targeting framework, where the central bank sets a specific inflation target and formulates policies to achieve it, can help anchor inflation expectations and provide a clear framework for policymaking.

Conclusion:

Expectations play a significant role in sustaining and driving inflation through mechanisms such as the wage-price spiral. The perception of future inflation impacts wage negotiations, consumer behavior, and overall economic decisions. Policymakers and central banks must actively manage and shape inflation expectations to achieve and maintain price stability and control inflation effectively. By adopting credible and transparent policies, they can influence inflation expectations and contribute to a stable and predictable economic environment.

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Certainly! Here are some real-world examples of how expectations can impact inflation and drive the wage-price spiral:

1. Oil Price Shocks: When there is a sudden increase in global oil prices due to geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions, it can lead to expectations of higher future inflation. As oil is a critical input in various industries, businesses may anticipate higher production costs. To protect their profit margins, they may raise prices for their goods and services, contributing to overall inflation. In response, workers may demand higher wages to keep up with the rising cost of living, further fueling the wage-price spiral.

2. Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe experienced hyperinflation in the late 2000s, reaching an annual inflation rate of over 89.7 sextillion percent in November 2008. As the government printed excessive amounts of money to finance its budget deficits, hyperinflationary expectations took hold. People anticipated that prices would rise exponentially in the future, leading to a collapse in the value of the currency. In response to these expectations, businesses raised prices frequently, and workers demanded higher wages to cope with soaring living costs, perpetuating the vicious cycle of hyperinflation.

3. Inflation Targeting in New Zealand: New Zealand is an example of a country that successfully managed inflation expectations through inflation targeting. In the 1990s, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand adopted an inflation targeting framework with a clear inflation target range. The central bank communicated its commitment to maintaining price stability effectively. This framework anchored inflation expectations, resulting in more stable wage negotiations and less volatile inflation. As a result, New Zealand experienced lower and more predictable inflation rates over time.

4. Impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) in the United States: During the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, the Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing (QE) policies to stimulate economic growth. As the Fed expanded its balance sheet and injected large amounts of money into the economy, concerns arose about potential future inflation. Even though inflation remained relatively subdued at the time, some market participants and consumers expected that the massive increase in the money supply could lead to higher inflation in the future. These inflation expectations influenced investment decisions and price-setting behavior, impacting the trajectory of inflation in subsequent years.

5. Brexit Referendum in the United Kingdom: After the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom in 2016, uncertainty about the future economic environment led to heightened inflation expectations. As the UK prepared to leave the European Union, businesses and consumers anticipated potential disruptions to trade, supply chains, and economic conditions. This led to increased prices for imported goods and services, contributing to a rise in inflation. The Bank of England had to carefully manage inflation expectations while balancing monetary policy to support the economy during this period of uncertainty.

These real-world examples illustrate how expectations about future economic conditions can impact inflation through various channels, including wage-price spirals, changes in consumer behavior, and price-setting decisions by businesses. Policymakers and central banks must consider and manage these expectations to achieve their inflation objectives and maintain economic stability.