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Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label elections. Show all posts

Sunday, 2 June 2024

How Accurate are the Election Predictions of India's Illegal Bookmakers?

Girish Menon

'Satta Bazaar' is the name given to Indian bookmakers. Bookmaking is banned in India, however there exists what appears to be a huge underground network of bookies and punters who take bets on most events where the outcome is unknown. Here, I am going to test the bookies' predictions on the Indian election results with the actual results which will be available to the public on 4 June 2024.

---Also read
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Economic Truism: The Wisdom of Crowds

In economics, market prices, such as share prices in stock markets, are generally considered an accurate reflection of ground realities and available information. This is because share prices are determined by the collective buying and selling decisions of numerous investors, each acting on their analysis of a company's fundamentals, future prospects, and other relevant factors. Similarly, bookmaker odds and prices in betting markets are driven by the weight of money being placed on different outcomes, reflecting the collective assessments and expectations of bettors. Just as share prices adjust dynamically to incorporate new information, bookmakers continuously update their odds based on the flow of bets, aiming to balance their books and minimize risk exposure. This market-driven price discovery mechanism ensures that both share prices and bookmaker odds serve as reasonably accurate reflections of the underlying realities and expectations of market participants.

So let me list the predictions of various Indian bookmakers as mentioned in Times Now's programme on 1 June 2024 around 5-6 pm.

Satta Bazaar on 1 June 2024

BJP Seats

NDA (BJP’s alliance) seats

Actual Results on 4 June 2024

Phalodi

270-300


BJP-240, NDA-293

Palanpur

216

247


Vijayawada

270-290

300+


Hyderabad

270-290

300+


Ahmedabad

301-303



Karnal

235

263


Belgaum

223

265


Kolkata

218

261


Indore

260

283


Mumbai

295-305




Then there are the exit polls, most of them seem to predict a return of the BJP government with probably more seats than in 2019. However, I have preferred to stick to the bookies' predictions because the bookmakers and punters are betting with their money and so it will help me test the economic principle that market prices (satta bazaar prices) reflect reality accurately.

Friday, 31 May 2024

Indian Elections 2024 - A Personal Note

Girish Menon

As the incumbent Prime Minister Modi heads off to Kanyakumari for some much-needed R&R (or maybe just to escape the election madness), I thought I'd share my two rupees on the 2024 Indian election extravaganza. But before you get too excited, let me warn you – these observations are based on the ramblings of biased commentators who probably couldn't tell the truth from a hole in the ground. So, take it all with a pinch of salt (or maybe a whole shaker).

The Election Commission's Impartiality? What's That?

The Election Commission of India (ECI) was supposed to be the impartial referee in this political boxing match, ensuring a fair fight. But let's be real, when has any referee ever been truly impartial? It's like expecting the umpire at an India-Pakistan cricket match to be completely unbiased. The ruling party was pulling all sorts of shenanigans, and the ECI just turned a blind eye. At least in the IPL, every team gets an equal chance to buy the best players in a glitzy auction. But in this election, it felt like one team was playing with a committed umpire.


---Also read

How accurate are the betting markets of India

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The Olympic Games of Democracy? 

Elections in India are touted as the "Olympic games of democracy," a grand 44 day spectacle where all parties compete on an even playing field, much like the athletes gathering for Paris '24. However, the reality is far from this idealized notion. It's more akin to a rigged game where the ruling party shows up with a souped-up, nitro-boosted sports car, while the opposition parties are stuck with rusty old clunkers, and the track is greased with ill-gotten gains, making it nearly impossible for them to gain traction. The opposition faces disadvantages similar to a woman athlete from Afghanistan competing against a well-trained, well-funded athlete from a developed nation. As Donald Trump aptly put it, the entire exercise is a "rigged game," where the dice were loaded long before the race even began, and I haven't even mentioned the EVMs (Electronic Voting Machines) and the conspiracy theories surrounding it. If the opposition wins then it will be nothing short of an Act of God.

The Mandate Debate: A Never-Ending Soap Opera

Ah, the age-old "mandate" debate. It's like a never-ending soap opera, with the winning party claiming they have a mandate to do whatever they want, and the opposition crying foul. It's a classic case of "he said, she said," and in the end, the only ones benefiting are the lawyers raking in the big bucks.

Expert Predictions: A Game of Darts in the Dark

Then we have the "expert" predictions. Sanjay Dikshit, Prashant Kishore, Yogendra Yadav, and Parakala Prabhakar have thrown out numbers ranging from 180 to 400 seats for the BJP in the 542-member Lok Sabha. That's a wider range than my waistline after a weekend of binge-drinking and snacking. Are these experts consulting some mystical crystal ball, or are they just playing a game of darts in the dark, hoping to hit the bullseye by sheer luck? Who knows, maybe they're just trying to keep their political overlords happy by telling them what they want to hear.

My Two Rupees? The BJP as the Loyal Opposition

Personally, I'd love to see the BJP end up as the single largest party with around 200-210 seats, taking on the role of the loyal opposition. They actually represent only a minority of the Indian population (38% in 2019). They've proven themselves to be quite the watchdogs in the past, barking at every perceived injustice (whether real or imagined). But at the same time, I can't help but worry about the plight of the common folk who've had to bear the brunt of their policies implemented over the last decade.  So there you have it, folks – my completely unbiased (wink, wink) take on the 2024 Indian election circus. Just remember, when it comes to politics, it's always better to laugh than to cry (or maybe do both, just to be safe).




Wednesday, 26 June 2019

Modi’s publicity machine cannot hide India’s patchy progress

PM has persuaded millions of his achievements but reality tells another story writes Amy Kazmin in The FT


In the run-up to the recent general election, Indians were hit by a tidal wave of propaganda hammering home the message that prime minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata party had, in five short years, transformed their country into a prosperous, powerful nation. 

The shortlived “NaMo” television channel broadcast Mr Modi’s speeches and infomercials talking up his achievements. BJP call centres contacted more than 200m recipients of new gas cylinders, toilets and other benefits to remind them of the premier’s munificence. Viral WhatsApp videos exulted in the dubious claim that Indian missiles killed 300 Pakistani terrorists in February — avenging the earlier deaths of 44 Indian paramilitaries in a suicide bombing. 

Then there was a catchy rap video targeting first-time voters, in which dancers in trendy western clothes celebrated India’s ostensible metamorphosis. Mr Modi, the dancers rapped, was “the one: one-and-only one who’s got everything done”. 

But as the euphoria has receded since Mr Modi’s re-election last month, Indians have been waking up to hard realities of the severe economic, social and ecological challenges confronting their country. The sudden shift in public mood feels much like a severe hangover, after a giddy celebration the night before. 

Mr Modi’s supporters were still enjoying the afterglow of his landslide victory and swearing-in ceremony when they were hit with the news that the slowing economy grew 5.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2019, its lowest increase in five years, and a sharp deceleration from the 6.6 per cent gross domestic product growth in the last quarter of 2018. 

New Delhi also finally released a long-awaited labour report showing that about 18 per cent of young men, aged 15-29, are unemployed. The grim findings were ready months earlier, but officials had tried to bury them. National Statistics Commission members resigned in protest at the delay, but, with the election over, the survey was finally made public. 

That is not the only new information to emerge. As Indian and Pakistani planes engaged in aerial skirmishes on February 27 — a day after missiles struck Pakistan, an Indian air force helicopter crashed in the disputed northern state of Kashmir, killing six personnel on board. At the time, authorities claimed the crash was unrelated. But in recent weeks, local media has reported that the chopper was shot down by an Indian missile in a “friendly fire” incident, kept quiet so as not to embarrass the government. 

In another reminder of India’s urgent need to upgrade its outdated military equipment, an Antonov AN-32 transport plane with 13 people on board went missing 30 minutes after take-off on June 3. It took eight days, and a massive military hunt, before the crash site was found. 

But the biggest tragedy so far of Mr Modi’s fledgling second term has been the deaths of 150 children in the lychee-growing region of Bihar from acute encephalitis syndrome, known colloquially as brain fever. 

Scientists have linked the regular outbreaks of this disease at the peak of the harvest to overconsumption of the fruit by highly malnourished children. They can then suffer hypoglycaemic shock, particularly if they do not eat other food before going to bed. Along with highlighting the chronic malnutrition still stalking rural areas, the deaths have shown up the dismal state of India’s public healthcare infrastructure, with its acute shortage of doctors, nurses, equipment and supplies. 

Meanwhile in the south of the country, Chennai, India’s sixth-largest city with about 8.5m people, has run out of water. Its reservoirs are dry after several years of below-normal rainfall. Residents of this major business and industrial hub are queueing for hours for tiny quantities of water from tankers, at exorbitant prices. 

All these are sobering developments for a nation seemingly intoxicated by the belief that it can muscle its way to the global high table, led by a powerful, self-confident strongman. Mr Modi is undoubtedly a master of manipulating the political narrative, who has persuaded hundreds of millions of people of his integrity, intent and achievements. But facts on the ground point to the vast work still to be done.