Beware the great 2016 financial crisis, warns leading City pessimist

Larry Elliot in The Guardian

Albert Edwards joins RBS in warning of a new crash, saying oil price plunge and deflation from emerging markets will overwhelm central banks, tip the markets and collapse the eurozone.

 

Are the doommongers right – are we heading for a big global economic fall? Photograph: Dennis M. Sabangan/EPA

The City of London’s most vocal “bear” has warned that the world is heading for a financial crisis as severe as the crash of 2008-09 that could prompt the collapse of the eurozone.


Albert Edwards, strategist at the bank Société Générale, said the west was about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them. His comments came as analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland urged investors to “sell everything” ahead of an imminent stock market crash.

Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists



“Developments in the global economy will push the US back into recession,” Edwards told an investment conference in London. “The financial crisis will reawaken. It will be every bit as bad as in 2008-09 and it will turn very ugly indeed.”


Fears of a second serious financial crisis within a decade have been heightened by the turbulence in markets since the start of the year. Share prices have fallen rapidly and a slump in the cost of oil has left Brent crude trading at barely above $30 a barrel.

“Can it get any worse? Of course it can,” said Edwards, the most prominent of the stock market bears – the terms for analysts who think shares are overvalued and will fall in price. “Emerging market currencies are still in freefall. The US corporate sector is being crushed by the appreciation of the dollar.”

The Soc Gen strategist said the US economy was in far worse shape than the country’s central bank, the US Federal Reserve, realised. “We have seen massive credit expansion in the US. This is not for real economic activity; it is borrowing to finance share buybacks.”

Edwards attacked what he said was the “incredible conceit” of central bankers, who had failed to learn the lessons of the housing bubble that led to the financial crisis and slump of 2008-09.

“They didn’t understand the system then and they don’t understand how they are screwing up again. Deflation is upon us and the central banks can’t see it.”

Edwards said the dollar had risen by as much as the Japanese yen had in the 1990s, an upwards move that pushed Japan into deflation and caused solvency problems for the Asian country’s banks. He added that a sign of the crisis to come was the collapse in demand for credit in China.

“That happens when people lose confidence that policymakers know what they are doing. This is what is going to happen in Europe and the US.”

Europe has shown tentative signs of recovery in the past year, but Edwards said the efforts of the European Central Bank to push the euro lower and growth higher would come to nothing in the event of a fresh downturn. “If the global economy goes back into recession, it is curtains for the eurozone.”

Countries such as France, Spain and Italy would not accept the rising unemployment that would be associated with another recession, he said. “What a disaster the euro has been: it is a doomsday machine in favour of the German economy.”

The warning from Edwards came as stock markets had a respite from the wave of selling seen since the start of the year. The FTSE 100 index rose by 57 points to close at 5,929, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 10 points in early trading in New York.

The mood in equity markets was helped by intervention by the People’s Bank of China overnight to support the yuan, with the Chinese currency moving higher on foreign exchange markets.

But the slide in the oil price continued, with Brent crude falling a further 3.5% to close in London at $30.45. Oil has not been below $30 a barrel since 2003.

Edwards joked that after years in which he has tended to be a lone voice, other institutions were also becoming a lot gloomier about global prospects.

He was referring to the RBS advice, which warned that investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel.

In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high-quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point, RBS said.

It’s time for Europe to turn the tables on bullying Britain

Joris Luyendijk in The Guardian


So far all the talk has been of David Cameron’s demands. But the EU would hold all the power in post-Brexit negotiations, so it should spell out how it would make an outgoing Britain suffer

 

‘The best way forward for Europe is to threaten to hit the English as hard as we can.’ Illustration: Robert G Fresson

As the European Union faces the worst and most dangerous crisis since its creation, not only is Britain refusing to help, it is actually using this historic moment of weakness to extract “concessions” from its fellow members. This is the back story to the “Brexit” referendum, in which the government is threatening to leave the EU unless its demands for a “better deal for Britain” are met. Indeed, why merely kick a man while he’s down if you can go through his wallet too?

The negotiations in Brussels over this deal are entering their final stages: last week cabinet members were told they’d be free to campaign for an exit whatever the outcome of the talks. So this makes it high time for Europeans to take a cold and honest look at the British. Or rather, the English. Scotland is largely pro-EU while Wales and Northern Ireland, with their smaller populations and the less imminent threat of secession, have far less influence. How to deal with the English, then, over Brexit?

Step one is to ask if this referendum is actually a once in a lifetime opportunity to cut the English loose. Why not let them simmer in their splendid irrelevance for a decade or more, and then allow them back in – provided they ask really, really nicely. The English will still be in Nato, and what are they going to do? The United States values Britain as its proxy seat at the European table. With that seat empty, why would Washington keep its poodle?

Meanwhile half of British trade is with the EU, but only 11% of EU trade is with Britain. As the Oxford-educated Polish politician Radoslaw “Radek” Sikorski – one European who knows how to talk to the English elite – characterised the balance of power post-Brexit: “No prizes for guessing who would have the upper hand in the negotiations.” So if the English want to be a little Russia or mini-Turkey – former empires suffering from debilitating withdrawal symptoms – why not let them?

But then there is the unprecedented refugee crisis, the euro mess, the ever-growing terrorist threat, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Together they make this a really bad time for further instability. Yes, we would strangle or crush the English in the post-Brexit negotiations, the way any group of nations comprising 450 million people would to an opponent eight times smaller who has just tried to blackmail them.

But here’s step two. We must recognise that the English elite has chosen its moment well. Europe is vulnerable, and we just cannot afford another distraction from our real problems. Which means we must help the pro-EU camp in England.

One way to do this would be to meet at least some of the English demands. This is what David Cameron is clearly hoping for, but it would be a historic mistake. If the UK is rewarded for its cynical act of extortion there will be referendums all over the place, paralysing Europe for a decade.

This is why the best way forward for Europe is to threaten to hit the English as hard as we can. We must stop treating membership of the EU as a favour granted by England, and instead make the English feel their vulnerability and dependence.

First and foremost, this means a change of tone. For many mainland Europeans the EU offers the promise of freedom from the threat of nationalism. But the English have a different experience. They are taught to believe that nationalism is what saved them from Adolf Hitler and, as a consequence, they see no need for a post-national political entity. This is why for England, the EU is an economic rather than a cultural and political project. Read pro-Europe newspapers such as the Financial Times or listen to English pro-Europe politicians, and every argument is framed around the country’s national interest.

In other words, the English attitude towards the EU is transactional rather than transformational – therefore appealing to the European ideal or England’s better self is pointless. Instead we need to spell out all the ways in which we will make the English suffer if they leave. Using explicit threats may seem to be a very un-European thing to do, but think again: for nearly all England’s mainstream politicians and pundits, “un-European” is a compliment.

So let us start talking now, out loud in Brussels as well as in Europe’s opinion pages and in national parliaments, about the offer we are going to make to the Scots, should they prefer Brussels to London in the event of Brexit. Let’s also discuss in which ways we are going to repatriate financial powers from London to the European mainland. It is strange enough that Europe’s financial centre lies outside the eurozone, but to have it outside the EU? That would be like placing Wall Street in Cuba.

‘How electrifying it would have been if Cameron had demanded an end to the insanely wasteful practice of moving the European parliament back and forth between Strasbourg and Brussels.’ Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images

Clearly multinational corporations from China, Brazil or the US cannot have their European HQs outside the EU. So let’s have an EU summit about which European capitals these headquarters should ideally move to. Make sure the English can hear these discussions, and in the meantime keep an eye on how the value of commercial real estate in London plummets.

Or consider the UK-based Japanese car industry – would Greece, with its excellent port and shipping facilities, not be its ideal new home? Oh yes, and sooner or later, the 1.3 billion Indians will object again to not having a permanent seat on the UN security council when 55 million English do. Let’s work out what favours we want from India in exchange for our support.

The best way for the EU to prevent Brexit is to start preparing for it, loudly. But this is not enough. European politicians and pundits must not be shy of cutting England down to size. This is the chief problem for those in England trying to make the EU case: they must acknowledge first how irrelevant and powerless their country has become. Except that is still a huge taboo.

Seen from China or India, the difference between the UK and Belgium is a rounding error: 0.87% of world population versus 0.15%. But this is not at all how Britain sees itself – consider the popular derogatory expression “a country the size of Belgium”.
But alas, what a missed opportunity this referendum is. A child can see that the EU needs fundamental reform and just imagine for a moment that England had argued not for a better deal for Britain, but for all of us Europeans.

How electrifying it would have been if Cameron had demanded an end to the insanely wasteful practice of moving the European parliament back and forth between Strasbourg and Brussels. If he had insisted on a comprehensive overhaul of the disastrous common agricultural policy, on the long overdue reduction in salaries and tax-free perks for Eurocrats, and on actual prosecution of corrupt officials. Instead he has set his sights on largely symbolic measures aimed at humiliating and excluding European migrants, safeguarding domestic interests versus those of the eurozone and, no surprises here, guarantees for London’s financial sector.

Ultimately, as far as the EU is concerned, the English are only in it for themselves. All the more reason, then, for Europeans to stop imploring them to stay in, and begin using their strength in the negotiations. 

Australia bet the house on never-ending Chinese growth. It might not end well

Lindsay Davis in The Guardian

Assumptions about coal and iron ore exports helped build Australian prosperity. But with China’s economy threatening to unravel, a less rosy picture is emerging

 

Chinese tourists in Sydney. The two countries have prospered through their close economic ties but there could also be a downside. Photograph: David Gray/REUTERS


Over the last couple of decades, China has undergone profound change and is often cited as an economic growth miracle. Day by day, however, the evidence becomes increasingly clear the probability of a severe economic and financial downturn in China is on the cards. This is not good news at all for Australia. The country is heavily exposed, as China comprises Australia’s top export market, at 33%, more than double the second (Japan at 15%).

Is 2016 the year when the world tumbles back into economic crisis?



A considerable proportion of Australia’s current and future economic prospects depend heavily on China’s current strategy of building its way out of poverty while sustaining strong real GDP growth. To date, China has successfully pulled hundreds of millions of its people out of poverty and into the middle class through mass provision of infrastructure and expansion of housing markets, alongside a powerful export operation which the global economy has relied upon since the 1990s for cheap imports.

Though last week’s volatile falls on the Chinese stock markets alongside a weakening yuan sent shockwaves through the global markets, Australia’s exposure lies much deeper within the Chinese economy. The miracle is starting to look more and more fallible as it slumps under heavy corporate debts and an over-construction spree which shall never again be replicated in our lifetimes or that of our children.

As of the second quarter of 2015, China’s household sector debt was a moderate 38% of GDP but its booming private non-financial business sector debt was 163%.Added together, it gives a total of 201% and its climbing rapidly. This may well be a conservative figure, given it is widely acknowledged the central government has overstated GDP growth.

Australia, though it frequently features high on lists of the world’s most desirable locations, currently has the world’s second most indebted household sector, at 122% of GDP, soon to overtake Denmark in first place. Combined with private non-financial business sector debt, Australia has a staggering total of 203%, vastly larger than public debts at all levels of government.

Australia’s long-term bet on China was and still is conceptually simple – an incredibly flawed assumption that the country would never cease to consume increasingly more iron ore.

The assumption ran right to the top. Back during the Labor (Rudd/Gillard/Rudd) administrations of 2007-13, the bureaucrats at the Reserve Bank and the treasury, alongside the then treasurer Wayne Swan, forecast that China would import so much iron ore up to 2029 that the only way so much steel could be consumed was if they built more houses than there were people. There would also be infrastructure projects like airports, highways, exhibition centres and sports stadiums.

This was just the base forecast. The best-case scenario manufactured by Australian bureaucrats would liken parts of China to resemble the planet Coruscant from the Star Wars movies (the political centre of the galaxy, whose surface is covered by an entire city). With incredible complacency, politicians from both sides of parliament basked in the glory and reacted smugly when the US and the eurozone hit a brick wall.

So what did Australia do with this rosy outlook? Like a letter of guarantee, the financial services industry used it to convince the international wholesale lending community that the Australian economy was as safe as houses. Lenders around the world were facing an indefinite period of zero interest rates and were desperate for better yield. Australia must have seemed a good place to put their money.

For a time, the Australian bet looked good. The banking and financial system collected all the debt they could source from overseas wholesale lenders, underpinning increasingly greater expansion into Australia’s already grossly overvalued residential housing market.

Like most other nations in the Asia-Pacific region, the problem for Australia now is that riding on the back of China’s economic growth is no longer a “letter of guarantee” but a statement of significant overexposure to a bad bet and risky mortgage debt. The current downturn in China is smashing the Australian mining industry via lower demand for commodities amid increased global supply, especially in iron ore.

As well as hitting Australia hard, the mining export-driven states and territories (Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory) will suffer the most.Population growth rates are falling in these regions, growth is softening and underutilization (unemployment and underemployment) is steadily rising. Spillover effects into the other states are likely, which could impact the country’s largest and most leveraged asset class: the housing market.

This may leave little desire for international wholesale lenders to provide credit to the banking and financial system in the future as Australia’s economic prospects deteriorate. It is becoming obvious both domestically and internationally that the country is beset with a massive housing bubble, driven by debt-financed speculation. Without Australia’s lenders importing an ever increasing sum of credit, the overleveraged and overvalued housing market will run into trouble.

Government and industry have managed over the last decade and a half to instill severe complacency in Australia, hoping policymakers’ two big bets on the finance, property and mining sectors would continue to pay dividends far into the future. While these bets paid off in the short-term, genuine productivity-enhancing policies which would diminish the incredible and mostly unearned wealth millionaires and billionaires have siphoned off could then be ignored.

With the Chinese economy beginning to falter, the fear is Australians must now figure out where their economic future lies for the next generation who have been brainwashed into believing that digging up rocks and flipping houses by accumulating a gargantuan mountain of private debt is how a modern western country builds its future. The results will not be pretty.

China share turmoil: How it affects the rest of the world

Andrew Walker BBC World Service


Image copyrightAFP



A slump in Chinese shares has prompted stock markets across Asia, Europe and the US to fall sharply. Why is this so significant?

What's behind the fall in China?

The wider story is that China's economic growth is slowing and there are concerns that the transition to a slower and more sustainable rate of growth might be disruptive.

That was true of the period of several weeks of volatility the market experienced after it peaked in June last year.

It's true this time too and the link is perhaps rather more direct now.

Why? Because the immediate sparks for the latest bout of instability were warning signs about the wider economy.

The first day when trading was suspended, figures showing a continued decline in manufacturing were one of the factors that set things rolling downhill. On the second day of suspension it was the sliding currency which raised concerns about whether it was a sign that the economy was slowing down more sharply than thought.

Image copyrightGetty Images

What does this mean for the rest of the world?

The direct financial impact of lower share prices in China is moderate. There is not enough foreign investment in the Chinese market for it to be a major problem. The London consultancy Capital Economics has said foreigners own just 2% of shares

The issue is more about whether the financial turbulence shines a light on wider issues about the economic slowdown in China: is the economy heading for what's called a "hard landing", too sharp a slowdown?

China is now such a big force in the global economy that it would inevitably affect the rest of the world. It is the second largest economy and the second largest importer of both goods and commercial services.

Image copyrightAFP

It's not just stocks.

The prices of many commodities have been affected, notably crude oil. It's not just about China, for sure. Abundant supplies have been every bit as important in the oil market in the last eighteen months. But China's problems have been a significant factor adding further downward pressure to the price of crude oil. The price of Brent crude has fallen by about half since mid-June, when the first stage of the Chinese stock market slide began.

China is such a large buyer of industrial commodities that the possibility of lower-than-expected sales to the country has also undermined the prices of copper and aluminium, for example.

Gold has gained ground a little this week. It is seen by many as a safe investment, protection against both inflation and more general financial instability.

There is certainly a possibility of that kind of "safe haven" effect in other markets if the Chinese stock price falls make investors more wary about risks. In the currency markets, the most likely candidates are the yen and the Swiss franc. The dollar could also be affected, though the US currency already has a strong tailwind from the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The Fed started to raise rates last month and that has been encouraging investors to buy dollars. But it's a bit early to draw any firm conclusions.

Some of the currencies that investors might sell if they become more risk averse have shown some impact. Turkey, Brazil and South Africa all have problems of their own and their currencies have weakened in the last few days.

There is also some sign this week of investors putting money into safe government bonds or debts, those seen as having negligible risks of default, such as the US, Germany, the UK and Switzerland.

Image copyrightReuters

What about ordinary Chinese people?

Those who have borrowed money to buy shares in the last year have already been hit very hard. But most people don't own shares - only one person in 30 does, according to Capital Economics.

For most Chinese the wider issue is about the health of the country's economy. If China manages a smooth transition to a slower and more sustainable growth rate, it is likely to still be fast enough to generate rising living standards for most people. A more disruptive slowdown would mean many business failures and job losses.

What might the Chinese authorities do next?

They have several options to stimulate the economy which can affect the stock markets. They could cut interest rates, they could relax the rules on bank lending or they could increase spending. They could also encourage the currency, the yuan, to fall further to stimulate exports. There are problems with these options. Anything that encourages more lending could mean more distressed borrowers in the future. A falling currency has already fed into the stock market drama.

In addition the authorities have taken steps more specifically targeted on the stock market. They have extended restrictions on large investors selling shares. State investment funds have been buying shares. These measures can have an impact but they are unlikely to provide a definitive solution.
How worried should we be?

Views vary about how healthy the Chinese economy is. Capital Economics have been consistently relatively upbeat about China and they said in a note to clients this week:

"We continue to believe that growth is more likely to pick up than weaken over coming months."

But the investor George Soros is more gloomy, telling an economic forum in Sri Lanka:

"China has a major adjustment problem. I would say it amounts to a crisis. When I look at the financial markets there is a serious challenge which reminds me of the crisis we had in 2008."

A crisis there would be serious for the rest of the world, particularly countries and firms that export to China.