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Showing posts with label evaluate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label evaluate. Show all posts

Friday 11 August 2023

Economics for Dummies 4: It's not the Figures Lying; but the Liars Figuring

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The phrase "It's not the figures lying but the liars figuring" is a clever play on words that highlights the concept that deceptive or misleading information doesn't originate from the numbers themselves, but rather from the individuals who manipulate or interpret those numbers to suit their agenda. In other words, the problem isn't with the data itself, but with the people who present or analyze it dishonestly. Let's explore this idea further with several examples:

  1. Political Manipulation: Imagine a politician using unemployment statistics to make a false claim about job growth during their term in office. They might present the figures in a way that only highlights a specific time frame or excludes certain groups from the calculation, making the situation seem better than it actually is. In this case, the figures themselves aren't lying; it's the politician who is manipulating the data to create a deceptive narrative.


  2. Marketing Deception: A company might advertise a product as "80% fat-free," emphasizing the low-fat aspect while conveniently ignoring that the product is loaded with sugar and unhealthy additives. The numeric figure (80%) isn't lying, but the company is deliberately omitting important information to mislead consumers about the overall healthiness of the product.


  3. Financial Misrepresentation: An investment advisor might use historical stock market data to convince potential clients that their investment strategy has consistently yielded high returns. However, they might conveniently leave out the years of losses or market crashes that occurred in between those successful periods. The data itself is accurate, but the omission of crucial information makes the overall representation deceptive.


  4. Media Manipulation: A news outlet could present crime statistics for a particular neighborhood, emphasizing a recent decrease in reported crimes. However, they might not mention that the police have changed their reporting methods, leading to a potential undercount of certain crimes. Here, the figures are accurate, but the media outlet is framing the information to create a misleading impression.


  5. Scientific Distortion: A study might be conducted on a new drug, and the researchers focus solely on the positive outcomes for a specific subgroup of participants while ignoring negative effects in a larger group. The statistics accurately reflect the results among the subgroup, but the study as a whole is presented in a way that distorts the overall effectiveness and safety of the drug.


  6. Historical Revisionism: A historian could present data on a historical event, emphasizing aspects that support a particular narrative while downplaying or ignoring contradictory evidence. This selective interpretation of historical figures and events can shape public understanding in a biased or misleading way.

In each of these examples, the underlying data or figures might be accurate, but it's the intentional manipulation, selective presentation, or omission of relevant information that leads to deception. The phrase "It's not the figures lying but the liars figuring" serves as a cautionary reminder to critically evaluate the context, interpretation, and motivations behind any presentation of information.

---Some more examples

  1. Political Spin: During an election campaign, a candidate might boast about reducing the budget deficit by 50% during their tenure as mayor. While this figure is accurate, they conveniently omit the fact that the deficit was much higher when they took office, and their policies actually contributed to a slight increase in the deficit in recent years. The numbers themselves are true, but the candidate is shaping the narrative to make their performance seem more impressive than it is.


  2. Food Labeling Tricks: A cereal brand advertises that it contains "only 10g of sugar per serving," giving the impression of a healthy breakfast option. However, they fail to mention that the serving size is half of what an average person would eat, making the actual sugar content much higher. The figure presented is true, but it's manipulated to deceive consumers about the product's nutritional value.


  3. Stock Market Deception: A stockbroker promotes a trading strategy by highlighting a series of successful trades that generated substantial profits over a short period. What they don't disclose is that these successes were part of a high-risk gamble that wiped out most of their clients' investments in the long run. The actual trade figures are accurate, but the broker is manipulating the narrative to attract clients without revealing the full context.


  4. Cherry-Picked Research Findings: A pharmaceutical company publishes a study showing that their new medication has a higher success rate compared to a placebo. They omit the fact that the medication also has severe side effects in a significant number of cases. While the success rate data is true, the company is selectively presenting only the positive outcomes to create a favorable impression of the drug's effectiveness.


  5. Climate Change Denial: Critics of climate change might point to a period of unusually cold weather to argue that global warming is a hoax. They ignore the broader trend of rising global temperatures over decades, which is supported by extensive scientific data. While the localized cold weather figures are accurate, their selective use distorts the larger reality of climate change.


  6. Historical Manipulation: A country's government downplays the atrocities committed during a war, emphasizing instances where their military acted heroically while omitting documented cases of civilian casualties. This skewed presentation of historical figures and events seeks to shape a more favorable national narrative, despite the factual accuracy of the individual incidents mentioned.


Thursday 10 August 2023

A Level Economics: Essay Type Summary

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Here's a comparison of the two types of essay answers, presented in a tabular format:

AspectEvaluation QuestionsExplanation & Analysis Questions
Nature of TaskRequires forming an opinion or judgment based on evidence and analysis.Focuses on explaining concepts and theories, and analyzing their application.
Key VerbsAssess, evaluate, to what extent, discuss pros and cons.Explain, analyze, illustrate, demonstrate, describe.
ObjectiveInvolves expressing your subjective judgment, supported by evidence.Requires providing an objective analysis with evidence-based explanations.
Balanced ViewDemands a balanced consideration of different viewpoints and evidence.May not require an explicit balance of views, but rather a comprehensive understanding of the topic.
Use of OpinionYour opinion is central to the response and should be well-informed.Your personal opinion is generally not required; instead, you focus on objective analysis.
StructureIntroduction, balanced evaluation of arguments, conclusion with a judgment.Introduction, clear explanation of concepts, analysis of their application, supporting examples, and a conclusion summarizing the analysis.
Examples & EvidenceNecessary to support your judgment. Examples illustrate arguments.Essential to clarify explanations and provide context. Examples demonstrate the application of theories.
SubjectivityMore subjectivity due to the inclusion of your personal judgment.Generally more objective since your own opinion is not a central component.
Depth of AnalysisIn-depth analysis of various aspects, considering trade-offs and implications.In-depth explanation of concepts, theories, and their practical relevance.
Decision-MakingRequires making a decision or drawing a conclusion based on the analysis.Requires breaking down information and analyzing it without necessarily drawing a final decision or conclusion.

Wednesday 9 August 2023

Critical Thinking 3 - How to teach Critical Thinking

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Case Scenario:

The country of Prosperia has experienced consistent GDP growth over the past decade. However, despite this growth, concerns have arisen about whether the average citizen's standard of living, as measured by per capita income, has improved. The government is seeking to understand the dynamics between GDP growth and per capita income.

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Here's a comprehensive list of exercises you can assign your students to enable a critical evaluation of the case involving the relationship between GDP growth and per capita income in Prosperia:

1. Analysis and Understanding: 
Read the case scenario and identify the key economic indicators involved (GDP growth and per capita income).
Define GDP growth and per capita income, explaining their significance in assessing a country's economic well-being.
Summarize the concerns raised in the case about the potential disparity between GDP growth and per capita income.

2. Questioning and Curiosity: 
List questions that arise from the case, such as "Why might per capita income not reflect GDP growth?" or "What factors could influence this discrepancy?"

3. Data Examination: 
Analyze the historical data provided on Prosperia's GDP growth and per capita income over the past decade.
Critically assess the reliability and sources of the economic data, discussing any limitations.

4. Bias and Assumptions: 
Discuss potential biases in how economic data is presented by the government, considering whether certain aspects might be highlighted or downplayed.

5. Factors Analysis: 
Identify and explain at least three potential factors that could contribute to the discrepancy between GDP growth and per capita income in Prosperia.
For each factor, discuss how it might influence the relationship between the two indicators.

6. Counterarguments and Differing Views: 
Prepare arguments supporting the idea that higher GDP growth doesn't necessarily lead to improved per capita income.
Prepare arguments against the above idea, emphasizing the positive relationship between GDP growth and per capita income.

7. Policy Solutions: 
Brainstorm and propose policy solutions that the government could consider to bridge the gap between GDP growth and per capita income, considering the identified factors.

8. Ethical Considerations: 
Discuss the ethical implications of prioritizing GDP growth over improving per capita income and citizens' well-being.

9. Data Analysis in Context: 
Analyze news articles or reports discussing similar cases in other countries, identifying any logical fallacies or biased claims related to GDP growth and per capita income.

10. Alternative Indicators: 
Research and propose alternative indicators beyond GDP and per capita income that could provide a more comprehensive understanding of citizens' well-being.

11. Reflective Discussion: 
Reflect on how your perspective on the relationship between GDP growth and per capita income has evolved throughout the case study.
Share insights gained about critical thinking in economic analysis and real-world policy decisions.

12. Final Research Paper: 
Compile all the exercises and insights into a comprehensive research paper that critically evaluates the relationship between GDP growth and per capita income in Prosperia, incorporating evidence, counterarguments, and ethical considerations.