Economics for Dummies 4: It's not the Figures Lying; but the Liars Figuring

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The phrase "It's not the figures lying but the liars figuring" is a clever play on words that highlights the concept that deceptive or misleading information doesn't originate from the numbers themselves, but rather from the individuals who manipulate or interpret those numbers to suit their agenda. In other words, the problem isn't with the data itself, but with the people who present or analyze it dishonestly. Let's explore this idea further with several examples:

1. Political Manipulation: Imagine a politician using unemployment statistics to make a false claim about job growth during their term in office. They might present the figures in a way that only highlights a specific time frame or excludes certain groups from the calculation, making the situation seem better than it actually is. In this case, the figures themselves aren't lying; it's the politician who is manipulating the data to create a deceptive narrative.

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3. Marketing Deception: A company might advertise a product as "80% fat-free," emphasizing the low-fat aspect while conveniently ignoring that the product is loaded with sugar and unhealthy additives. The numeric figure (80%) isn't lying, but the company is deliberately omitting important information to mislead consumers about the overall healthiness of the product.

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5. Financial Misrepresentation: An investment advisor might use historical stock market data to convince potential clients that their investment strategy has consistently yielded high returns. However, they might conveniently leave out the years of losses or market crashes that occurred in between those successful periods. The data itself is accurate, but the omission of crucial information makes the overall representation deceptive.

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7. Media Manipulation: A news outlet could present crime statistics for a particular neighborhood, emphasizing a recent decrease in reported crimes. However, they might not mention that the police have changed their reporting methods, leading to a potential undercount of certain crimes. Here, the figures are accurate, but the media outlet is framing the information to create a misleading impression.

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9. Scientific Distortion: A study might be conducted on a new drug, and the researchers focus solely on the positive outcomes for a specific subgroup of participants while ignoring negative effects in a larger group. The statistics accurately reflect the results among the subgroup, but the study as a whole is presented in a way that distorts the overall effectiveness and safety of the drug.

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11. Historical Revisionism: A historian could present data on a historical event, emphasizing aspects that support a particular narrative while downplaying or ignoring contradictory evidence. This selective interpretation of historical figures and events can shape public understanding in a biased or misleading way.

In each of these examples, the underlying data or figures might be accurate, but it's the intentional manipulation, selective presentation, or omission of relevant information that leads to deception. The phrase "It's not the figures lying but the liars figuring" serves as a cautionary reminder to critically evaluate the context, interpretation, and motivations behind any presentation of information.

---Some more examples

1. Political Spin: During an election campaign, a candidate might boast about reducing the budget deficit by 50% during their tenure as mayor. While this figure is accurate, they conveniently omit the fact that the deficit was much higher when they took office, and their policies actually contributed to a slight increase in the deficit in recent years. The numbers themselves are true, but the candidate is shaping the narrative to make their performance seem more impressive than it is.

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3. Food Labeling Tricks: A cereal brand advertises that it contains "only 10g of sugar per serving," giving the impression of a healthy breakfast option. However, they fail to mention that the serving size is half of what an average person would eat, making the actual sugar content much higher. The figure presented is true, but it's manipulated to deceive consumers about the product's nutritional value.

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5. Stock Market Deception: A stockbroker promotes a trading strategy by highlighting a series of successful trades that generated substantial profits over a short period. What they don't disclose is that these successes were part of a high-risk gamble that wiped out most of their clients' investments in the long run. The actual trade figures are accurate, but the broker is manipulating the narrative to attract clients without revealing the full context.

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7. Cherry-Picked Research Findings: A pharmaceutical company publishes a study showing that their new medication has a higher success rate compared to a placebo. They omit the fact that the medication also has severe side effects in a significant number of cases. While the success rate data is true, the company is selectively presenting only the positive outcomes to create a favorable impression of the drug's effectiveness.

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9. Climate Change Denial: Critics of climate change might point to a period of unusually cold weather to argue that global warming is a hoax. They ignore the broader trend of rising global temperatures over decades, which is supported by extensive scientific data. While the localized cold weather figures are accurate, their selective use distorts the larger reality of climate change.

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11. Historical Manipulation: A country's government downplays the atrocities committed during a war, emphasizing instances where their military acted heroically while omitting documented cases of civilian casualties. This skewed presentation of historical figures and events seeks to shape a more favorable national narrative, despite the factual accuracy of the individual incidents mentioned.

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Doctors' basic errors are killing 1,000 patients a month

The Independent 13 July 2012

Almost 12,000 patients are dying needlessly in NHS hospitals every year because of basic errors by medical staff, according to the largest and most detailed study into hospital deaths ever performed in the UK.

The researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and colleagues found something went wrong with the care of 13 per cent of the patients who died in hospitals. An error only caused death in 5.2 per cent of these – equivalent to 11,859 preventable deaths in hospitals in England.

Helen Hogan, who led the study, said: "We found medical staff were not doing the basics well enough – monitoring blood pressure and kidney function, for example. They were also not assessing patients holistically early enough in their admission so they didn't miss any underlying condition. And they were not checking side-effects... before prescribing drugs."

In one case a middle-aged man who had a cyst on his neck removed developed an infection. He was treated with antibiotics but medical staff did not realise he was not responding until it was too late and he died.

In another case, a 40-year-old obese woman was in hospital for three weeks while doctors investigated symptoms including vomiting and weight loss before discovering she had ovarian cancer. She was never given preventive treatment for blood clots – a risk of prolonged bed rest – and died of a clot on the lung.

The study was based on analysis of 1,000 deaths at 10 NHS trusts during 2009. Previous estimates have suggested up to 40,000 deaths a year are caused by errors in care but these have been based on international studies and have not directly linked the errors with the cause of death.

Dr Hogan added: "Hospitals must learn from careful analysis of preventable deaths and make every effort to avoid [them]."

Most of the patients who died were elderly and frail and suffering from multiple conditions. But some were in their 40s and 30s. More supervision by senior consultants was required to ensure junior doctors carried out proper assessment on admission and liaised with GPs and social services.

International evidence suggests one in 10 hospital patients suffers harm as a result of errors in their care, ranging from short-term effects from a wrong prescription to severe harm resulting from an operation on the wrong limb.

But the new study, published online in BMJ Quality and Safety, found errors of omission were more frequent than active mistakes.

Dr Hogan said: "The NHS in the future is going to have to look after very frail elderly patients as their numbers increase. Our systems are not robust enough to ensure we avoid harming them."

The authors say the quality of hospital care should be assessed on the basis of harm caused by errors, rather than on deaths. "If 95 per cent of deaths in hospital are not due to preventable poor care, the scope for hospitals to demonstrate reduction in their mortality rate is limited," they say.

A Department of Health spokesperson said it was an important study which revealed a picture of preventable deaths.

"Patients have a right to expect the very best care from the NHS. Any preventable death in hospital is unacceptable and we expect the NHS to ensure patients receive high-quality, safe and effective care. We know that data like this can help hospitals to improve services," said the spokesperson.

Man who died of dehydration was killed by hospital neglect

Neglect by medical staff led to a man dying of dehydration in a hospital bed, a coroner has ruled. Medical staff at St George's Hospital in Tooting, south London, did not give Kane Gorny vital medication to help him retain fluids. The 22-year-old, who was a keen sportsman, even phoned police from his hospital bed as he was so desperate for a glass of water, the inquest heard. Deputy Coroner Dr Shirley Radcliffe told the hearing: "A cascade of individual failures has led to an incredibly tragic outcome."

She recorded a narrative verdict at Westminster Coroner's Court and said Mr Gorny had died from dehydration contributed to by neglect. Dr Radcliffe said: "Kane was undoubtedly let down by incompetence of staff, poor communication [and] lack of leadership, both medical and nursing."

James Stevenson, the solicitor for Mr Gorny's family, said they were "devastated by the number of missed opportunities" to prevent his death.