Extracts from Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke
In 2004 Phil Ivey destroyed a start studded table in a poker
tournament. After his win, during dinner, Ivey deconstructed every potential
playing error he thought he might have made on the way to victory, asking
others’ for their opinion about each strategic decision. A more run of the mill
player might have spent the time talking about how great they played, relishing
the victory. Not Ivey. For him, the opportunity to learn from his mistakes was
much more important than treating the dinner as a self-satisfying celebration.
Ivey, clearly has different habits than most players and most
people in any endeavor in how he fields his results. Habits operate in a
neurological loop consisting of three parts: the cue, the routine and the
reward. In cricket the cue might be a won game, the routine taking credit for
it and the reward is a boost to our ego. To change a habit you must keep the
old cue, and deliver the old reward but insert a new routine.
What we do: When
we have a good outcome, it cues the routine of crediting the result to our
awesome decision-making, delivering the reward of a positive update to our
self-narrative. A bad outcome cues the routine of off-loading responsibility
for the result, delivering the reward of avoiding a negative self-narrative
update. With the same cues, we flip the routine for the outcomes of our peers,
but the reward is the same – feeling good about ourselves.
The good news is that we can work to change this habit of
mind by substituting what makes us feel good. The golden rule of habit change
says we don’t have to give up the reward of a positive update to our narrative,
nor should we.
We can work to get the reward of feeling good about ourselves
from being a good credit-giver, a good mistake-admitter, a good finder of
mistakes in good outcomes, a good learner and a good decision maker. Instead of
feeling bad when we have to admit a mistake, what if the bad feeling came from
the thought that we might be missing a learning opportunity just to avoid
blame? Or that we might be basking in the credit of a good result instead of recognizing,
like Ivey, where we could have done better? If we put in the work to practice
this routine, we can field more of our outcomes in an open minded, more
objective way, motivated by accuracy and truth-seeking to drive learning. The
habit of mind will change, and our decision making will better align with our
long term goals.
When we look at the people performing at the highest level
of their chosen field, we find they have developed habits around accurate
self-critique.
Changing the routine is hard and takes work.