Search This Blog

Wednesday 9 December 2009

Are we better off without religion?

 

We should be careful about drawing rash conclusions from the correlation between religiosity and societal breakdown

 

Popular religious belief is caused by dysfunctional social conditions. This is the conclusion of the latest sociological research (pdf) conducted by Gregory Paul. Far from religion benefiting societies, as the "moral-creator socioeconomic hypothesis" would have it, popular religion is a psychological mechanism for coping with high levels of stress and anxiety – or so he suggests.


I've long been interested in Paul's work because it addresses a whole bunch of fascinating questions – why are Americans so religious when the rest of the developed world is increasingly secular? Is religious belief beneficial to societies? does religion make people behave better?

 

Many believers assume, without question, that it does – even that there can be no morality without religion. They cite George Washington who believed that national morality could not prevail without religions principles, or Dostoevsky's famous claim (actually words of his fictional character Ivan Karamazov) that "without God all things are permitted". Then there are Americans defending their country's peculiarly high levels of popular religious belief and claiming that faith-based charity is better than universal government provision.


 

Atheists, naturalists and humanists fight back claiming that it's perfectly possible to be moral without God. Evolutionary psychology reveals the common morality of our species, and the universal values of fairness, kindness, and reciprocity. But who is right? As a scientist I want evidence. What if – against all my own beliefs – it turns out that religious people really do behave better than atheists, and that religious societies are better in important respects than non-religious ones, then I would have cause to rethink some of my ideas.


 

This is where Gregory Paul and his research come in. I have often quoted his earlier, 2005, research which showed strong positive correlations between nations' religious belief and levels of murder, teenage pregnancy, drug abuse and other indicators of dysfunction. It seemed to show, at the very least, that being religious does not necessarily make for a better society. The real problem was that he was able to show only correlations, and the publicity for his new research seemed to imply causation. If so this would have important implications indeed.


 
In this latest research Paul measures "popular religiosity" for developed nations, and then compares it against the "successful societies scale" (SSS) which includes such things such as homicides, the proportion of people incarcerated, infant mortality, sexually transmitted diseases, teenage births and abortions, corruption, income inequality, and many others. In other words it is a way of summing up a society's health. The outlier again and again is the US with a stunning catalogue of failures. On almost every measure the US comes out worse than any other 1st world developed nation, and it is also the most religious.

 

For this reason Paul carries out his analysis both with and without the US included, but either way the same correlations turn up. The 1st world nations with the highest levels of belief in God, and the greatest religious observance are also the ones with all the signs of societal dysfunction. These correlations are truly stunning. They are not "barely significant" or marginal in any way. Many, such as those between popular religiosity and teenage abortions and STDs have correlation coefficients over 0.9 and the overall correlation with the SSS is 0.7 with the US included and 0.5 without. These are powerful relationships. But why?


 
The critical step from correlation to cause is not easy. Paul analyses all sorts of possibilities. Immigration and diversity do not explain the relationships, nor do a country's frontier past, nor its violent media, and so he is led to his conclusions: "Because highly secular democracies are significantly and regularly outperforming the more theistic ones, the moral-creator socioeconomic hypothesis is rejected in favour of the secular-democratic socioeconomic hypothesis"; "religious prosociality and charity are less effective at improving societal conditions than are secular government programmes".

 

He draws implications for human evolution too. Contrary to Dan Dennett, Pascal Boyer and others, he argues that religion is not a deep-seated or inherited tendency. It is a crutch to which people turn when they are under extreme stress, "a natural invention of human minds in response to a defective habitat". Americans, he says, suffer appalling stress and anxiety due to the lack of universal health care, the competitive economic environment, and huge income inequalities, and under these conditions belief in a supernatural creator and reliance on religious observance provides relief. By contrast, the middle class majorities of western Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Japan have secure enough lives not to seek help from a supernatural creator.


 
These are powerful conclusions indeed, and if they are right the US in particular needs to take note. But are they? I still retain some caution. I keep reminding myself of the obvious point that in science it is all too easy to apply a more critical eye to research whose conclusions you disagree with. In this case the wiggly route from correlation to cause includes many questionable steps, and clearly a lot more research is needed. I was also dismayed by what might seem trivial – the appalling number of typos and other mistakes in the only version of the paper I could find – the one that is linked from the press release and several other places. There are missing words, added words, "their"s for "there"s and other errors that sometimes made it hard to follow. If the text was so poorly checked, I wondered, what about the data? Should I apply my critical concerns to those stunningly high correlations too?

I guess we'll find out, for this is a hot topic and a thriving research area. For now we need not necessarily agree with Paul that "it is probably not possible for a socially healthy nation to be highly religious" but he has certainly shown that the healthiest nations are also the least religious.



Have more than one Hotmail account? Link them together to easily access both.

Immigrants now require 'permission' to stay in UK


 

Immigrants now require 'permission' to stay in UK

Text Size:
|
LONDON: Further tightening its noose on immigrants, the UK has proposed a bill under which five current application categories available to such people will be replaced with a clear-cut concept - 'permission' to be in the country.

Under the new Immigration Bill, immigrants will either be granted permission or refused, making the rules easier for applicants and staff.

Those in the United Kingdom must gain permission or face removal for breaking the law.

These proposals are the next step in building on the rapid progress the government has made in tightening up Britain's border controls.

Over the past three years the UK has seen the introduction of e-Borders to check individuals in and out of the country and the implementation of the points-based system which ensures that only those who benefit the economy can come here to work.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Gordon Brown had announced that doors will be shut to highly skilled non-EU doctors and engineers, and the government will consider denying visa to students seeking entry to short-term programmes.

In order to bring together the essential changes that have already taken place, the government is proposing a new bill to bring forward a new legal framework to simplify and consolidate 40 years of immigration laws.

A tough new menu of conditions is proposed for those on immigration bail, including restrictions on residence, work or study, access to public funds, and reporting and electronic monitoring.

The government also published proposals for a new streamlined asylum support system wherein those plying with the rules will be rewarded and tough stance will be taken against those who do not streamline the current complex system of support.

"I believe our proposals strike a fair balance between supporting asylum seekers while their claim is being determined and encouraging the return of those who have no protection needs and who have no right to be in the UK," Woolas said.


New! Receive and respond to mail from other email accounts from within Hotmail Find out how.

Tuesday 8 December 2009

It's time we reread Mahabharata for soul searching


 
 
Mallika Sarabhai / DNA
 

Have you ever wondered why the Ramayana became a religious text and the Mahabharata remained an epic? Why Sita became Sitama and Rama became Sri Rama, while Arjuna or Yudhishthira or Draupadi didn't become gods or goddesses?
 
I have often wondered about it and this is what I think. The Ramayana is a simple story, where good is good and bad is bad - for the most part anyway. In some versions Rama might put Sita through an agni pariksha (thankfully husbands haven't instituted this one in daily life) and in others he might have trusted a dhobi more than his ardhangana, but for the most part he is a good hero.
 
In the Mahabharata, on the contrary, no one is clearly good and no one is clearly bad. In fact, the characters are much more like us - with strengths and weaknesses, good sides and bad, convictions and doubts. This makes us uncomfortable - how can we idolize people who, like us, dither? How can we worship such complicated characters? And how can we make into a religious text a book which has no clear cut answers but demands that we assess personal dharma and universal dharma at every step of our lives? It is too much hard work, and that we certainly don't want to cope with - especially since we have to cope with doubts and risks all the time in our real lives. It's much better to have clear cut good and evil.
 
Of all the great religions of the world and especially the three religions of the Book - Christianity, Judaism and Islam - god makes the rules (or the son of god or a variant of this). Humans just follow these rules. No questions asked, no debate. Rules, rules and rules - and, if you break the rules you go to hell. In our Sanatana Dharma there are no such facilities. It is we who are at the core, not god.
 
It is the Brahman or the paramatma in US that is the truth not an external behaviour checking being. And this makes it really hard. Amidst the humdrumness of coping with self, family, community, finance, illness etc. where do we have time to be self questioning? Isn't it easier just to light a lamp at home or in the temple, offer some prayers and ask god to do what we want - get a first class, get more money from my shares than my neighbour, get my daughter married, ………..?
 
Further, Hinduism depends on enquiry, on doubt, on questions.  The Upanishads, Vedanta, some of the Vedas are a result of enquiry. Draupadi's two questions in the Rajsabha after the Pandava lose at dice are at the root of all the questions and doubts that all the players battle with for the rest of the epic.
 
As a society we have become afraid of enquiry, of a child's curiosity, about an adolescent's search for answers to a grown up and incomprehensible world. We know of teachers beating their students for daring to ask a question, for it is seen as disrespect to an authority. We know of parents (are we amongst them?) who ask their children to shut up or lie to them when they ask 'uncomfortable' questions. We know how governments respond with anger to questions asked through RTI enquiries.  And how often have we not heard the retort "mane puchchva vala tame kaun chho?' (Who are you to question me?)
 
Without questioning a society becomes frozen. Without self testing - of beliefs, of mores, or traditions, of habits - we become what Gurudev Tagore describes as a society mired in the dead weight of old habit.
 
With today being the black day of the demolition of the Babri Masjid, and Ambedkar Day, and two days ago being the 25th anniversary of the Bhopal tragedy, it is perhaps time for the thinking amongst us to go back to the Mahabharata, not as a story, but to question and grapple with the dilemmas that each character faces, and to source the parallel realities that surround us so many thousand years later.




Use Hotmail to send and receive mail from your different email accounts. Find out how.

Love's bite is deeper, Tiger


 

Without risk there can be no passion. Philosophers know that, beyond golf, romance is under threat

 

A curious saga unfolded across the media last week. Hour by hour we were fed reports on the Tiger Woods car crash, his refusal to meet police, and speculation about extramarital affairs. The best-paid sports star in the world barricaded himself at home and apologised for his "transgressions" and "failings". But this did not stop the alleged "love cheat" being lectured about Truth with a capital T. Indeed, so many words ring false in this modern chronicle of love: hero, zero, recompense – as well as truth.

If this saga proves one thing, it is not Woods's "malice", but that love is threatened by the world's two leading ideologies: libertarianism and liberalism. These two 21st-century diseases concur to make us believe that love is a risk not worth taking: as if we could have, on one hand, a safe conjugality; and on the other, sexual arrangements that will spare us the dangers of passion. Both are illusions.

 

In a remarkable book that has just come out called Eloge de l'Amour (Eulogy of Love), the French philosopher Alain Badiou ponders on the nature of love, and how Judaism, Christianity, philosophy, politics and art have in turn treated and considered this universal event: the bursting on to the stage of our lives of this most unruly agent.

 

Badiou was struck by an advertising campaign last year for Meetic, a European dating website. Its slogans: "Get Love without the hazards!"; "You can love without falling in love"; and "You can love without suffering!" In other words, Meetic offers the public 100% Guaranteed Risk Free Love. This prompted Badiou to comment: "Love without the fall, love without the risks, is just another piece of propaganda, just like the presumed security of arranged marriages or, for that matter, the American invention of a zero-casualty war. Love is what gives our life intensity and meaning, thus full of risks, in my opinion worth taking." For the philosopher, the other threat to love today is the liberal dogma: one that denies love its importance by making it another extension of hedonism and consumerism.

 

As Rimbaud said, "Love must be reinvented" – against the dictatorship of security and comfort. Placing himself between the extremes represented by Schopenhauer's pessimism and Kierkegaard's absolute, Badiou starts from Plato – for whom love is an elan towards idealism – and distances himself from French moralists, who traditionally view love as the ornament to desire and sexual jealousy. For him, love is not truth, but a construction of the truth with someone who is not identical but different. It is also a pig-headed attempt to make an event last in time. "Obstinacy is a strong element of love."

 

Artists have always preferred the figure of love as an all-consuming encounter, revolutionary perhaps, but doomed from the start, as in André Breton's Nadja. In the arts, obstinate love hasn't much inspired artists. Except one perhaps: in Samuel Beckett, Badiou sees the real champion of love. For Badiou, Beckett's Happy Days is far more romantic than Tristan and Isolde. "Think of this old couple who have pigheadly loved each other: magnificent!" Badiou refutes the romantic notion of fusion and the dissolution of oneself in the other's gaze. He insists that love is built on the alterity between lovers, and says – in opposition to religious thinkers – that children are steps along the way, not love's final destination.

 
For all these reasons, Badiou links love to revolution and resistance: a revolution because it implies contradictions and violence; and a resistance to today's tyranny of puritanical lecturing, hypocritical public confession, naming and shaming, and the ultimate fantasy – the infallible hero.



View your other email accounts from your Hotmail inbox. Add them now.

Monday 7 December 2009

Iran: Time To Leave The NPT?


 

 

By Nader Bagherzadeh & Soraya Sepahpour-Ulrich

06 December, 2009
Countercurrents.org

 

Article IV of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) acknowledges the "inalienable right" of non-nuclear weapons states (NNWS) to research, develop, and use nuclear energy for non-weapons purposes. The NPT also supports the "fullest possible exchange" of such nuclear-related information and technology between nuclear weapons states (P5) and non-nuclear weapons states. Iran, a NNWS has been denied its "inalienable rights" while support and the exchange of nuclear-related information has been withheld. This begs the question why Iran should continue to honor the NPT?

 

Indications are that Tehran did not believe that in the international arena, its biggest foe would be injustice. When former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton was busy engineering completely illegal sanctions against Iran, it was with the goal of testing Tehran's patience in the hope of having it exit the NPT so that he could muster up support for yet another war against an Islamic country in the Middle East. But Iran remained steadfast and in sharp contrast to the United States, it continued to respect international laws in the firm belief that justice would prevail. It did not.

 

Since 2003, the IAEA has consistently failed its obligations towards Iran as defined by the 1974 Safeguards Agreement. It has failed to facilitate refueling of a small reactor in Tehran, used mostly for short-lived medical isotopes. It has cancelled several key technical assistance programs with Iran, some of them related to nuclear safety issues, under pressure from the US. At America's behest, the IAEA has become a conventional weapon inspector agency, seeking information about national secrets of Iran related to missiles and conventional bomb making capabilities; which is completely outside of its jurisdiction, as spelled out in the 1974 agreement. In violation of Article 9 of the 1974 Agreement, the IAEA has shared Iran's sensitive nuclear technology with member nations, as well as outside nuclear experts with dubious connections to Iran's enemies. And most importantly, the Agency with tremendous pressure from US, has elevated a technical non-compliance matter to the level Chapter 7 UNSC sanctions, which should have been used when there is a clear indication of a nuclear weapons program.

 

The Agency's clear violation of Iran's rights under the NPT leads one to wonder if the IAEA is ever going to clear Iran's file and revert it back to the normal status while the US is exerting pressure. It is unrealistic for Iran's leadership to assume that by fully engaging the IAEA, sometime in the near future, this agency, working against the wishes of Obama's administration, will clear Iran's path to have nascent enrichment capability. After all, the so called "laptop" filled with mostly fabricated information against Iran's nuclear programs did not show up until it was clear that the IAEA was going to declare 6 outstanding concerns on Iran's past nuclear activities were no longer valid.

 

Although Obama has extended his hand towards Iran, the policy of "zero-enrichment" has not changed an iota from Bush's policy. When Obama chose Gary Samore and Dennis Ross to handle Iran's nuclear case, it was obvious that Obama did not have any major changes in mind, and the goal was to use a softer approach to gather more support for putting pressure, or as Ross calls it "bigger sticks." Moreover, a recent trip by Ross to Beijing to convince Chinese leadership to sign up for more sanctions against Iran on behalf of Obama, shows that not only Ross was not marginalized after he was transferred from the State Department to the White House, but he is practically in the driver's seat for Obama's Iran policy.

 

In addition to the West's shaping of IAEA's illegitimate position on Iran's nuclear file, relentless fabricated attacks by the western media has finally resulted in portraying Iran as an outlaw when it comes to the nuclear activities. The propaganda machine led by the likes of Fred Hiatt of Washington Post and Nicolas Goldberg of Los Angeles Times, have helped create such an environment that a recent Pew poll showed that more than 50% of Americans support a US military strike against Iran while the U.S. is in a quagmire in the graveyard of the empires - Afghanistan, and continues to be engaged in its sixth year war in Iraq.

 

The latest IAEA's report which continued its demands from Iran to go beyond its obligations under the NPT safeguards and Subsidiary Arrangement Code 3.1 is another misrepresentation of the truth by the Agency. Iran's Majlis (parliament) never approved this code which requires reporting any nuclear project at the point of inception. It is ironic that a major NPT member (i.e. US) is allowed to threaten Iran's nuclear facilities with military strikes, but when Iran rightfully wants to prevent that from happening by using passive defensive majors, she is censured by the Board.

 

Iran's continued cooperation with the IAEA may be a call for equality. Their security in pursuing their goal stems from the justness of their cause, itself a compelling reason to delay a war with the US. However, this cooperation is not serving the development of peaceful nuclear energy in Iran. The Agency has been a tool in the hands of major powers and it does not seem that the status will change anytime soon. The way Obama is pushing the chess pieces against Iran by seeking an oil embargo and crippling sanctions, he may be boxed into a war, even if he is ostensibly against it. Perhaps it is time for Iran to reconsider her membership and leave the NPT.

 

Dr. Nader Bagherzadeh is a professor of electrical engineering and computer science at UC Irvine, California.

 

Soraya Sepahpour-Ulrich has a Master's in Public Diplomacy from USC Annenberg. She is an independent researcher and writer.



View your other email accounts from your Hotmail inbox. Add them now.

Saturday 5 December 2009

UK should open borders to climate refugees


 

UK should open borders to climate refugees, says Bangladeshi minister

Europe and US should also be responsible for millions who will be displaced by climate change, says Abul Maal Abdul Muhith

Bangladesh's finance minister, Abul Maal Abdul Muhith Link to this video

Up to 20 million Bangladeshis may be forced to leave the country in the next 40 years because of climate change, one of the country's most senior politicians has said. Abul Maal Abdul Muhith, Bangladesh's finance minister, called on Britain and other wealthy countries to accept millions of displaced people.

In a clear signal to the US and Europe that developing countries are not prepared to accept a weak deal at next week's Copenhagen climate summit, Abdul Muhith said Bangladesh wanted hosts for managed migration as people began to abandon flooded and storm-damaged coastal areas.
"Twenty million people could be displaced [in Bangladesh] by the middle of the century," Abdul Muhith told the Guardian. "We are asking all our development partners to honour the natural right of persons to migrate. We can't accommodate all these people – this is already the densest [populated] country in the world," he said.

He called on the UN to redefine international law to give climate refugees the same protection as people fleeing political repression. "The convention on refugees could be revised to protect people. It's been through other revisions, so this should be possible," he said.

Tens of thousands of people in Bangladesh and other low-lying areas of Asia are leaving their communities as their homes and land become inundated. But this is the first time that a senior politician from a developing country has openly proposed that those countries considered responsible for climate change should take physical responsibility for the refugees created.

Bangladesh, India, and many small island states such as the Maldives face having to relocate large populations over the next 50 years as sea levels rise up to one metre. This would have profound effects on the 1.5 billion people who presently live in coastal areas. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the scientific body that assesses the impact of climate change, has said there could be 200 million climate change migrants by 2050.

There is mounting evidence in India and Bangladesh and other low-lying countries that sea levels are rising faster than the global average of 1.2mm a year. Islands and coastal communities in the Ganges delta and the Bay of Bengal have recorded rises of up to 5mm a year. In Bangladesh hundreds of coastal villagers are forced to drink salty water as tides continue to rise and the sea intrudes on fresh water aquifers.
Abdul Muhith said managed migration could be positive for Bangladesh and the west: "We can help in the sense of giving the migrants some training, making them fit for existence in some other country.
Managed migration is always better – we can then send people who can attune to life more easily." But he added, in another warning before Copenhagen where money will be a critical issue, that current levels of aid were inadequate. "Total aid in Bangladesh today is less than 2% of GDP. It is almost the same in China and in India. So we, the most populated, least developed country, gets peanuts. This inequity is terribly intolerable."

Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, said the Bangladeshi migration proposal should be taken seriously. "This is clearly a warning signal from Bangladesh and similar countries to the developed countries. And I think it has to be taken very seriously. If you accept that those countries that have really not been responsible for causing the problem, and have a legitimate basis for help from the developed countries, then one form of help would certainly be facilitation of immigration from these countries to the developed world," he said.


"If you had 30 or 40 million migrating to other parts of the world, that's a sizable problem for which we have to prepare. And if it requires changes to immigration laws and facilitating people settling down and working in the developed countries, then I suppose this will require legislative action in the developed world," he said.
Douglas Alexander, the international development secretary, said: "As the largest international donor to Bangladesh, Britain has been urging the international community to provide extra money for climate change adaptation." But Jean-Francois Durieux, who is in charge of climate migration at the UN refugee agency, cautioned against reworking the UN convention on refugees.
"The risk of mass migration needs to be managed. It's absolutely legitimate for Bangladesh and the Maldives to make a lot of noise about the very real risk of climate migration – they hope it will make us come to their rescue. But reopening the 1951 convention would certainly result in a tightening of its protections."
He said there was a danger of a backlash in rich countries. "The climate in Europe, North America and Australia is not conducive to a relaxed debate about increasing migration. There is a worry doors will shut if we start that discussion," he said.
There is extreme sensitivity about adapting the UN convention on refugees. A UNHCR report in August warned: "In the current political environment, it could result in a lowering of protection standards for refugees and even undermine the international refugee protection regime altogether."



View your other email accounts from your Hotmail inbox. Add them now.

Friday 27 November 2009

The dark side of the internet


 

 

In the 'deep web', Freenet software allows users complete anonymity as they share viruses, criminal contacts and child pornography.

 

 

The Principality of Sealand

Freenet means controversial information does not need to be stored in physical data havens such as this one, Sealand. Photograph: Kim Gilmour/Alamy

 

Fourteen years ago, a pasty Irish teenager with a flair for inventions arrived at Edinburgh University to study artificial intelligence and computer science. For his thesis project, Ian Clarke created "a Distributed, Decentralised Information Storage and Retrieval System", or, as a less precise person might put it, a revolutionary new way for people to use the internet without detection. By downloading Clarke's software, which he intended to distribute for free, anyone could chat online, or read or set up a website, or share files, with almost complete anonymity.

 
"It seemed so obvious that that was what the net was supposed to be about – freedom to communicate," Clarke says now. "But [back then] in the late 90s that simply wasn't the case. The internet could be monitored more quickly, more comprehensively, more cheaply than more old-fashioned communications systems like the mail." His pioneering software was intended to change that.
His tutors were not bowled over. "I would say the response was a bit lukewarm. They gave me a B. They thought the project was a bit wacky … they said, 'You didn't cite enough prior work.'"
 
Undaunted, in 2000 Clarke publicly released his software, now more appealingly called Freenet. Nine years on, he has lost count of how many people are using it: "At least 2m copies have been downloaded from the website, primarily in Europe and the US. The website is blocked in [authoritarian] countries like China so there, people tend to get Freenet from friends." Last year Clarke produced an improved version: it hides not only the identities of Freenet users but also, in any online environment, the fact that someone is using Freenet at all.
 
Installing the software takes barely a couple of minutes and requires minimal computer skills. You find the Freenet website, read a few terse instructions, and answer a few questions ("How much security do you need?" … "NORMAL: I live in a relatively free country" or "MAXIMUM: I intend to access information that could get me arrested, imprisoned, or worse"). Then you enter a previously hidden online world. In utilitarian type and bald capsule descriptions, an official Freenet index lists the hundreds of "freesites" available: "Iran News", "Horny Kate", "The Terrorist's Handbook: A practical guide to explosives and other things of interests to terrorists", "How To Spot A Pedophile [sic]", "Freenet Warez Portal: The source for pirate copies of books, games, movies, music, software, TV series and more", "Arson Around With Auntie: A how-to guide on arson attacks for animal rights activists". There is material written in Russian, Spanish, Dutch, Polish and Italian. There is English-language material from America and Thailand, from Argentina and Japan. There are disconcerting blogs ("Welcome to my first Freenet site. I'm not here because of kiddie porn … [but] I might post some images of naked women") and legally dubious political revelations. There is all the teeming life of the everyday internet, but rendered a little stranger and more intense. One of the Freenet bloggers sums up the difference: "If you're reading this now, then you're on the darkweb."
 
The modern internet is often thought of as a miracle of openness – its global reach, its outflanking of censors, its seemingly all-seeing search engines. "Many many users think that when they search on Google they're getting all the web pages," says Anand Rajaraman, co-founder of Kosmix, one of a new generation of post-Google search engine companies. But Rajaraman knows different. "I think it's a very small fraction of the deep web which search engines are bringing to the surface. I don't know, to be honest, what fraction. No one has a really good estimate of how big the deep web is. Five hundred times as big as the surface web is the only estimate I know."

Unfathomable and mysterious

"The darkweb"; "the deep web"; beneath "the surface web" – the metaphors alone make the internet feel suddenly more unfathomable and mysterious. Other terms circulate among those in the know: "darknet", "invisible web", "dark address space", "murky address space", "dirty address space". Not all these phrases mean the same thing. While a "darknet" is an online network such as Freenet that is concealed from non-users, with all the potential for transgressive behaviour that implies, much of "the deep web", spooky as it sounds, consists of unremarkable consumer and research data that is beyond the reach of search engines. "Dark address space" often refers to internet addresses that, for purely technical reasons, have simply stopped working.
And yet, in a sense, they are all part of the same picture: beyond the confines of most people's online lives, there is a vast other internet out there, used by millions but largely ignored by the media and properly understood by only a few computer scientists. How was it created? What exactly happens in it? And does it represent the future of life online or the past?
Michael K Bergman, an American academic and entrepreneur, is one of the foremost authorities on this other internet. In the late 90s he undertook research to try to gauge its scale. "I remember saying to my staff, 'It's probably two or three times bigger than the regular web,"' he remembers. "But the vastness of the deep web . . . completely took my breath away. We kept turning over rocks and discovering things."
 
In 2001 he published a paper on the deep web that is still regularly cited today. "The deep web is currently 400 to 550 times larger than the commonly defined world wide web," he wrote. "The deep web is the fastest growing category of new information on the internet … The value of deep web content is immeasurable … internet searches are searching only 0.03% … of the [total web] pages available."
 
In the eight years since, use of the internet has been utterly transformed in many ways, but improvements in search technology by Google, Kosmix and others have only begun to plumb the deep web. "A hidden web [search] engine that's going to have everything – that's not quite practical," says Professor Juliana Freire of the University of Utah, who is leading a deep web search project called Deep Peep. "It's not actually feasible to index the whole deep web. There's just too much data."
But sheer scale is not the only problem. "When we've crawled [searched] several sites, we've gotten blocked," says Freire. "You can actually come up with ways that make it impossible for anyone [searching] to grab all your data." Sometimes the motivation is commercial – "people have spent a lot of time and money building, say, a database of used cars for sale, and don't want you to be able to copy their site"; and sometimes privacy is sought for other reasons. "There's a well-known crime syndicate called the Russian Business Network (RBN)," says Craig Labovitz, chief scientist at Arbor Networks, a leading online security firm, "and they're always jumping around the internet, grabbing bits of [disused] address space, sending out millions of spam emails from there, and then quickly disconnecting."
 
The RBN also rents temporary websites to other criminals for online identity theft, child pornography and releasing computer viruses. The internet has been infamous for such activities for decades; what has been less understood until recently was how the increasingly complex geography of the internet has aided them. "In 2000 dark and murky address space was a bit of a novelty," says Labovitz. "This is now an entrenched part of the daily life of the internet." Defunct online companies; technical errors and failures; disputes between internet service providers; abandoned addresses once used by the US military in the earliest days of the internet – all these have left the online landscape scattered with derelict or forgotten properties, perfect for illicit exploitation, sometimes for only a few seconds before they are returned to disuse. How easy is it to take over a dark address? "I don't think my mother could do it," says Labovitz. "But it just takes a PC and a connection. The internet has been largely built on trust."

Open or closed?

In fact, the internet has always been driven as much by a desire for secrecy as a desire for transparency. The network was the joint creation of the US defence department and the American counterculture – the WELL, one of the first and most influential online communities, was a spinoff from hippy bible the Whole Earth Catalog – and both groups had reasons to build hidden or semi-hidden online environments as well as open ones. "Strong encryption [code-writing] developed in parallel with the internet," says
Danny O'Brien, an activist with the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a long-established pressure group for online privacy.
 
There are still secretive parts of the internet where this unlikely alliance between hairy libertarians and the cloak-and-dagger military endures. The Onion Router, or Tor, is an American volunteer-run project that offers free software to those seeking anonymous online communication, like a more respectable version of Freenet. Tor's users, according to its website, include US secret service "field agents" and "law enforcement officers . . . Tor allows officials to surf questionable websites and services without leaving tell-tale tracks," but also "activists and whistleblowers", for example "environmental groups [who] are increasingly falling under surveillance in the US under laws meant to protect against terrorism". Tor, in short, is used both by the American state and by some of its fiercest opponents. On the hidden internet, political life can be as labyrinthine as in a novel by Thomas Pynchon.

The hollow legs of Sealand

The often furtive, anarchic quality of life online struck some observers decades ago. In 1975, only half a dozen years after the internet was created, the science-fiction author John Brunner wrote of "so many worms and counter-worms loose in the data-net" in his influential novel The Shockwave Rider. By the 80s "data havens", at first physical then online locations where sensitive computerised information could be concealed, were established in discreet jurisdictions such as Caribbean tax havens. In 2000 an American internet startup called HavenCo set up a much more provocative data haven, in a former second world war sea fort just outside British territorial waters off the Suffolk coast, which since the 60s had housed an eccentric independent "principality" called Sealand. HavenCo announced that it would store any data unless it concerned terrorism or child pornography, on servers built into the hollow legs of Sealand as they extended beneath the waves. A better metaphor for the hidden depths of the internet was hard to imagine.

 
In 2007 the highly successful Swedish filesharing website The Pirate Bay – the downloading of music and films for free being another booming darknet enterprise – announced its intention to buy Sealand. The plan has come to nothing so far, and last year it was reported that HavenCo had ceased operation, but in truth the need for physical data havens is probably diminishing. Services such as Tor and Freenet perform the same function electronically; and in a sense, even the "open" internet, as online privacy-seekers sometimes slightly contemptuously refer to it, has increasingly become a place for concealment: people posting and blogging under pseudonyms, people walling off their online lives from prying eyes on social networking websites.
 
"The more people do everything online, the more there's going to be bits of your life that you don't want to be part of your public online persona," says O'Brien. A spokesman for the Police Central e-crime Unit [PCeU] at the Metropolitan Police points out that many internet secrets hide in plain sight: "A lot of internet criminal activity is on online forums that are not hidden, you just have to know where to find them. Like paedophile websites: people who use them might go to an innocent-looking website with a picture of flowers, click on the 18th flower, arrive on another innocent-looking website, click something there, and so on." The paedophile ring convicted this autumn and currently awaiting sentence for offences involving Little Ted's nursery in Plymouth met on Facebook. Such secret criminal networks are not purely a product of the digital age: codes and slang and pathways known only to initiates were granting access to illicit worlds long before the internet.
 
To libertarians such as O'Brien and Clarke the hidden internet, however you define it, is constantly under threat from restrictive governments and corporations. Its freedoms, they say, must be defended absolutely. "Child pornography does exist on Freenet," says Clarke. "But it exists all over the web, in the post . . . At Freenet we could establish a virus to destroy any child pornography on Freenet – we could implement that technically. But then whoever has the key [to that filtering software] becomes a target. Suddenly we'd start getting served copyright notices; anything suspect on Freenet, we'd get pressure to shut it down. To modify Freenet would be the end of Freenet."

Always recorded

According to the police, for criminal users of services such as Freenet, the end is coming anyway. The PCeU spokesman says, "The anonymity things, there are ways to get round them, and we do get round them. When you use the internet, something's always recorded somewhere. It's a question of identifying who is holding that information." Don't the police find their investigations obstructed by the libertarian culture of so much life online? "No, people tend to be co-operative."
The internet, for all its anarchy, is becoming steadily more commercialised; as internet service providers, for example, become larger and more profit-driven, the spokesman suggests, it is increasingly in their interests to accept a degree of policing. "There has been an increasing centralisation," Ian Clarke acknowledges regretfully.
 
Meanwhile the search engine companies are restlessly looking for paths into the deep web and the other sections of the internet currently denied to them. "There's a deep implication for privacy," says Anand Rajaraman of Kosmix. "Tonnes and tonnes of stuff out there on the deep web has what I call security through obscurity. But security through obscurity is actually a false security. You [the average internet user] can't find something, but the bad guys can find it if they try hard enough."
As Kosmix and other search engines improve, he says, they will make the internet truly transparent: "You will be on the same level playing field as the bad guys." The internet as a sort of electronic panopticon, everything on it unforgivingly visible and retrievable – suddenly its current murky depths seem in some ways preferable.
 
Ten years ago Tim Berners-Lee, the British computer scientist credited with inventing the web, wrote: "I have a dream for the web in which computers become capable of analysing all the data on the web – the content, links, and transactions between people … A 'Semantic Web', which should make this possible, has yet to emerge, but when it does, the day-to-day mechanisms of trade, bureaucracy and our daily lives will be handled by machines talking to machines." Yet this "semantic web" remains the stuff of knotty computer science papers rather than a reality.
 
"It's really been the holy grail for 30 years," says Bergman. One obstacle, he continues, is that the internet continues to expand in unpredictable and messy surges. "The boundaries of what the web is have become much more blurred. Is Twitter part of the web or part of something else? Now the web, in a sense, is just everything. In 1998, the NEC laboratory at Princeton published a paper on the size of the internet. Who could get something like that published now? You can't talk about how big the internet is. Because what is the metric?"

Gold Rush

It seems likely that the internet will remain in its Gold Rush phase for some time yet. And in the crevices and corners of its slightly thrown-together structures, darknets and other private online environments will continue to flourish. They can be inspiring places to spend time in, full of dissidents and eccentrics and the internet's original freewheeling spirit. But a darknet is not always somewhere for the squeamish.
 
On Freenet, there is a currently a "freesite" which makes allegations against supposed paedophiles, complete with names, photographs, extensive details of their lives online, and partial home addresses. In much smaller type underneath runs the disclaimer: "The material contained in this freesite is hearsay . . . It is not admissable in court proceedings and would certainly not reach the burden of proof requirement of a criminal trial." For the time being, when I'm wandering around online, I may stick to Google.



New! Receive and respond to mail from other email accounts from within Hotmail Find out how.