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Saturday 3 January 2009

From The Ashes Of Gaza

 Tariq Ali  

 

(31 December, 2008) 

 

-- The assault on Gaza, planned over six months and executed with perfect timing, was designed largely, as Neve Gordon has rightly observed, to help the incumbent parties triumph in the forthcoming Israeli elections. The dead Palestinians are little more than election fodder in a cynical contest between the right and the far right in Israel. Washington and its EU allies, perfectly aware that Gaza was about to be assaulted, as in the case of Lebanon in 2006, sit back and watch.

 

Washington, as is its wont, blames the pro-Hamas Palestinians, with Obama and Bush singing from the same AIPAC hymn sheet. The EU politicians, having observed the build-up, the siege, the collective punishment inflicted on Gaza, the targeting of civilians etc (for all the gory detail, see Harvard scholar Sara Roy's chilling essay in the London Review of Books) were convinced that it was the rocket attacks that had "provoked" Israel but called on both sides to end the violence, with nil effect. The moth-eaten Mubarak dictatorship in Egypt and Nato's favourite Islamists in Ankara failed to register even a symbolic protest by recalling their ambassadors from Israel. China and Russia did not convene a meeting of the UN security council to discuss the crisis.

 

As result of official apathy, one outcome of this latest attack will be to inflame Muslim communities throughout the world and swell the ranks of those very organisations that the west claims it is combating in the "war against terror".

 

The bloodshed in Gaza raises broader strategic questions for both sides, issues related to recent history. One fact that needs to be recognised is that there is no Palestinian Authority. There never was one. The Oslo Accords were an unmitigated disaster for the Palestinians, creating a set of disconnected and shrivelled Palestinian ghettoes under the permanent watch of a brutal enforcer. The PLO, once the repository of Palestinian hope, became little more than a supplicant for EU money.

 

Western enthusiasm for democracy stops when those opposed to its policies are elected to office. The west and Israel tried everything to secure a Fatah victory: Palestinian voters rebuffed the concerted threats and bribes of the "international community" in a campaign that saw Hamas members and other oppositionists routinely detained or assaulted by the IDF, their posters confiscated or destroyed, US and EU funds channelled into the Fatah campaign, and US congressmen announcing that Hamas should not be allowed to run.

 

Even the timing of the election was set by the determination to rig the outcome. Scheduled for the summer of 2005, it was delayed till January 2006 to give Abbas time to distribute assets in Gaza - in the words of an Egyptian intelligence officer, "the public will then support the Authority against Hamas."

 

Popular desire for a clean broom after ten years of corruption, bullying and bluster under Fatah proved stronger than all of this. Hamas's electoral triumph was treated as an ominous sign of rising fundamentalism, and a fearsome blow to the prospects of peace with Israel, by rulers and journalists across the Atlantic world. Immediate financial and diplomatic pressures were applied to force Hamas to adopt the same policies as those of the party it had defeated at the polls. Uncompromised by the Palestinian Authority's combination of greed and dependency, the self-enrichment of its servile spokesmen and policemen, and their acquiescence in a "peace process" that has brought only further expropriation and misery to the population under them, Hamas offered the alternative of a simple example. Without any of the resources of its rival, it set up clinics, schools, hospitals, vocational training and welfare programmes for the poor. Its leaders and cadres lived frugally, within reach of ordinary people.

 

It is this response to everyday needs that has won Hamas the broad base of its support, not daily recitation of verses from the Koran. How far its conduct in the second Intifada has given it an additional degree of credibility is less clear. Its armed attacks on Israel, like those of Fatah's Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade or Islamic Jihad, have been retaliations against an occupation far more deadly than any actions it has ever undertaken. Measured on the scale of IDF killings, Palestinian strikes have been few and far between. The asymmetry was starkly exposed during Hamas's unilateral ceasefire, begun in June 2003, and maintained throughout the summer, despite the Israeli campaign of raids and mass arrests that followed, in which some 300 Hamas cadres were seized from the West Bank.

 

On August 19 2003, a self-proclaimed "Hamas" cell from Hebron, disowned and denounced by the official leadership, blew up a bus in west Jerusalem, upon which Israel promptly assassinated the Hamas ceasefire's negotiator, Ismail Abu Shanab. Hamas, in turn, responded. In return, the Palestinian Authority and Arab states cut funding to its charities and, in September 2003, the EU declared the whole Hamas movement to be a terrorist organization - a longstanding demand of Tel Aviv.

 

What has actually distinguished Hamas in a hopelessly unequal combat is not dispatch of suicide bombers, to which a range of competing groups resorted, but its superior discipline - demonstrated by its ability to enforce a self-declared ceasefire against Israel over the past year. All civilian deaths are to be condemned, but since Israel is their principal practitioner, Euro-American cant serves only to expose those who utter it. Overwhelmingly, the boot of murder is on the other foot, ruthlessly stamped into Palestine by a modern army equipped with jets, tanks and missiles in the longest-armed oppression of modern history.

 

"Nobody can reject or condemn the revolt of a people that has been suffering under military occupation for 45 years against occupation force," said General Shlomo Gazit, former chief of Israeli military intelligence, in 1993. The real grievance of the EU and US against Hamas is that it refused to accept the capitulation of the Oslo Accords, and has rejected every subsequent effort, from Taba to Geneva, to pass off their calamities on the Palestinians. The west's priority ever since was to break this resistance. Cutting off funding to the Palestinian Authority is an obvious weapon with which to bludgeon Hamas into submission. Boosting the presidential powers of Abbas - as publicly picked for his post by Washington, as was Karzai in Kabul - at the expense of the legislative council is another.

 

No serious efforts were made to negotiate with the elected Palestinian leadership. I doubt if Hamas could have been rapidly suborned to western and Israeli interests, but it would not have been unprecedented. Hamas' programmatic heritage remains mortgaged to the most fatal weakness of Palestinian nationalism: the belief that the political choices before it are either rejection of the existence of Israel altogether or acceptance of the dismembered remnants of a fifth of the country. From the fantasy maximalism of the first to the pathetic minimalism of the second, the path is all too short, as the history of Fatah has shown.

 

The test for Hamas is not whether it can be house-trained to the satisfaction of western opinion, but whether it can break with this crippling tradition. Soon after the Hamas election victory in Gaza, I was asked in public by a Palestinian what I would do in their place. "Dissolve the Palestinian Authority" was my response and end the make-believe. To do so would situate the Palestinian national cause on its proper basis, with the demand that the country and its resources be divided equitably, in proportion to two populations that are equal in size - not 80% to one and 20% to the other, a dispossession of such iniquity that no self-respecting people will ever submit to it in the long run. The only acceptable alternative is a single state for Jews and Palestinians alike, in which the exactions of Zionism are repaired. There is no other way.

 

And Israeli citizens might ponder the following words from Shakespeare (in The Merchant of Venice), which I have slightly altered:

 

"I am a Palestinian. Hath not a Palestinian eyes? Hath not a Palestinian hands, organs, dimensions, senses, affections, passions? Fed with the same food, hurt with the same weapons, subject to the same diseases, healed by the same means, warmed and cooled by the same winter and summer, as a Jew is? If you prick us, do we not bleed? If you tickle us, do we not laugh? If you poison us do we not die? And if you wrong us, shall we not revenge? If we are like you in the rest, we will resemble you in that ... the villainy you teach me, I will execute; and it shall go hard but I will better the instruction."



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Friday 2 January 2009

A World Without Borders

 

An interview with Howard Zinn

May 2006
 
[This essay is part of the ZNet Classics series. Three times a week we will re-post an article that we think is of timeless importance. This one was first published May, 2006.]

H
oward Zinn, professor emeritus at Boston University, is perhaps this country's premier radical historian. He was an active figure in the civil rights and anti-Vietnam War movements of the 1960s. Today, he speaks all over the country to large and enthusiastic audiences. His book, A People's History of the U.S. continues to sell in huge numbers. His latest work is Original Zinn .  

 

BARSAMIAN: Politicians use history as a kind of mystical element or device. We often hear that the U.S. is called on by history to do certain things in the world. 

ZINN: History is always a good entity to call on if you are hesitant to call on God because they both play the same role. They are both abstractions, they both are actually meaningless until you invest them with meaning. I've noticed that President Bush calls on God a lot. I think he's hesitant to call on history because I think the word history throws him. He's not quite sure what to do with it, but he's more familiar with God. 

 

Political leaders, I guess, suppose that the population is as mystified by the word history as they are by the word God and that they will accept whatever interpretation of history is given to them. So political leaders feel free to declare that history is on their side and the way is open for them to use it in whatever manner they want. 

 

Donald Macedo, in the introduction to On Democratic Education , mentions the Tom Paxton song, "What Did You Learn in School Today?" He quotes a couple of the lyrics."I learned that Washington never told a lie/I learned that soldiers seldom die/I learned that everybody's free." What does a democratic education mean to you? 

 

To me, a democratic education means many things: it means what you learn in the classroom and what you learn outside the classroom. It means not only the content of what you learn, but also the atmosphere in which you learn it and the relationship between teacher and student. All of these elements of education can be democratic or undemocratic. 

 

Students as citizens in a democracy have the right to determine their lives and to play a role in society. A democratic education should give students the kind of information that will enable them to have power of their own in society. What that means is to give students the kind of education that suggests to the students that historically there have been many ways in which ordinary people can play a part in making history, in the development of their society. An education that gives the student examples in history of where people have shown their power in reshaping not only their own lives, but also in how society works. 

 

In the relationship between the student and the teacher there is democracy. The student has a right to challenge the teacher, to express ideas of his or her own. That education is an interchange between the experiences of the teacher, which may be far greater than the student in certain ways, and the experiences of the student, since every student has a unique life experience. So the free inquiry in the classroom, a spirit of equality in the classroom, is part of a democratic education. 

 

It was very important to make it clear to my students that I didn't know everything, that I was not born with the knowledge that I'm imparting to them, that knowledge is acquired and in ways in which the student can acquire also. 

 

How do you as a teacher foster that sense of questioning and skepticism and how do you avoid its going over to cynicism?

 

Skepticism is one of the most important qualities that you can encourage. It arises from having students realize that what has been seen as holy is not holy, what has been revered is not necessarily to be revered. That the acts of the nation which have been romanticized and idealized, those deserve to be scrutinized and looked at critically. 

I remember that a friend of mine was teaching his kids in middle school to be skeptical of what they had learned about Columbus as the great hero and liberator, expander of civilization. One of his students said to him, "Well, if I have been so misled about Columbus, I wonder now what else have I been misled about?" So that is education in skepticism. 

 

When you taught at Spelman College, and later at Boston University, you were teaching kids just coming out of high school. They come with a lot of baggage, a lot of embedded ideas. How difficult was it for you to reach them? 

 

In the case of teaching at Spelman College, my students were African American and I was one of a few white teachers. For most of my students I was the first white teacher they had ever encountered. 

 

I tried to have them realize that my values and ideas were different from those of the white-supremacist society they had grown up in, that I believed in the equality of human beings, and that I took the claims of democracy seriously, not only to try to break down the barrier between us by what I said in the classroom, but by how I behaved toward them, by not indicating that their education had been poor, which it very often was, by not making them feel that they were coming into this classroom handicapped. 

 

Also by showing them that outside the classroom I was involved in the social struggle that related to their lives. When they decided to participate in this struggle and go to Atlanta and try to desegregate the public library or when they decided to follow the example of the four students in Greensboro, North Carolina and sit in, I was with them, I was supporting them, I was helping them, I was walking on picket lines with them, I was engaging in demonstrations with them, I was sitting in with them. More than anything, I tried to create an atmosphere of democracy in our relationship. 

 

You've been a lifelong reader from the time when as a kid you found Tarzan and the Jewels of Opar in the street with the first few pages torn out. Later, your parents got you the complete collection of Charles Dickens's novels. What's the value of reading? 

 

I don't know if my experience agrees with the experience of other people—I have talked to people, young people especially, who would say to me, "This book changed my life." I remember sitting in a cafeteria in Hawaii across from a student at the University of Hawaii and she had a copy of The Color Purple by Alice Walker. Since Alice Walker had been my student at Spelman, I didn't immediately say, "That's my student." I sort of cautiously said, "Oh, you're reading The Color Purple . What do you think of it?" The student said, "This book changed my life." And that startled me, a book that changed your life. 

 

And also, I must say, in all modesty, that I have run into a number of students who have read A People's History of the United States , and who've said, in ways that I first did not believe but I'm almost beginning to believe now, "You know, your book changed my life." 

 

There are books that have changed my life. I think reading Dickens changed my life. Reading Steinbeck's The Grapes of Wrath changed my life. Reading Upton Sinclair, yes, changed my life. 

 

Today there are debates about the canon and what books are being taught and what topics. There are charges that campuses are run by leftists, by Marxist professors. Is this issue more acute now or does it ebb and flow? 

 

There has always been conflict in the educational world. There has always been scrutiny of what young people learn—scrutiny of their textbooks and teachers—for the simple reason that education has always been dangerous to the establishment, and therefore, the risk that is taken when young people go into the classroom is a risk that the people in charge of the status quo want to watch very carefully. I remember that in 1950, during the McCarthy period, Harold Velde, the congressperson from Illinois, later to become chair of HUAC, opposed a proposal to fund mobile library units to go into rural areas because, he said, "Educating Americans through the means of the library service could bring about a change of their political attitude quicker than any other method. The basis of communism and socialistic influence is education of the people." While I don't think it's quite literally true, I think it is true that education has dangerous possibilities, always has had, and therefore it is guarded very carefully. Attempts to control it have always existed. 
 
Is this a more intense attempt to control the education of young people than we have had in the past? I think that may be so, for one reason. The stakes for the U.S. are higher than they ever were before. With the U.S. seeking to extend its power into more areas of the world, there is an enormous amount at stake for the establishment in bringing up a generation of young people who will accept what the U.S. government does and not be critical of it. 

 

The economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said that the paradox of the U.S. was "private wealth and public squalor." There is a story on page 16 in the New York Times describing how in John Steinbeck's hometown of Salinas, California where they're facing record deficits. The town is closing the three public libraries, including those named for Steinbeck and one for Cesar Chavez.  

 

It's interesting that that item appeared on page 16. It should have appeared on page 1 because it might have alerted more people to what is a horrifying development today. What is happening in Salinas, California, should be a wake-up call. 

 

But this attack on libraries, on schools, is it part of a pattern of undermining the commons? 

Let me interject my own personal note because I grew up in a cockroach-infested tenement in New York and we had no books in our house. I would go to a library in East New York on the corner of Stone and Sutter. I still remember that library. That was my refuge. It was a wonderful eye-opener and mind-opener for me. 

But your question is a larger one. And that is, what is happening to the public commons? That is what Galbraith pointed to when he wrote The Affluent Society . What has been really one of the terrible consequences of the militarization of the country is the starving of the public sector, education, libraries, health, housing. This is why people become socialists. People become socialists in the way that I became a socialist when I read Upton Sinclair and when I read Karl Marx. 

 

There are lots of distortions and misrepresentations attached to Marx. Should people be reading Marx today? 

Yes, but I wouldn't advise them to immediately plunge into Volume II or III of Das Kapital , maybe not even Volume I, which is formidable. But I think The Communist Manifesto , although the title may scare people, is still very much worth reading because what it does is suggest that the capitalist society we have today is not eternal. The Communist Manifesto presents an historical view of the world in which we live. It shows you that societies have evolved from one form to another, one social system to another, from primitive communal societies to feudal societies to capitalist societies. That capitalist society has only come into being in the last few hundreds years and it came into being as a result of the failure of feudal society to deal with the change in technology which was inexorably happening—the commercialization, industrialization, new tools and implements. Capitalist society was able to deal with this new technology and to enhance it enormously. 

 

But what Marx pointed out—and I think this is a very important insight—is that capitalist society, while it's developed the economy in an impressive way, nevertheless did not distribute the results of this enormous production equitably. So Marx pointed to a fundamental flaw in capitalism, a flaw that should be evident to people today, especially in the U.S. Here is this enormously productive and advanced technological country and yet more than forty-five million people are without health insurance, one out of five children grow up in poverty, and millions of people are homeless and hungry. 
 
I think another thing that would be important is Marx's view that when you look beneath the surface of political conflicts or cultural conflicts, you find class conflict. That the important question to ask in any situation is, "Who benefits from this, what class benefits from this?" If Americans understood this Marxian concept of class then, when they went to the polls and they had to choose between the Republican and Democratic Party, they would ask, "Which class does this party represent?" 

 

There was a parade in Taos, New Mexico on February 15, 2003. The lead banner read, "No Flag Is Large Enough to Cover the Shame of Killing Innocent People." That's a quote from you. How is patriotism being used today? 

Patriotism is being used today the way patriotism has always been used and that is to try to encircle everybody in the nation into a common cause, the cause being the support of war and the advance of national power. Patriotism is used to create the illusion of a common interest that everybody in the country has. I just mentioned about the necessity to see society in class terms, to realize that we do not have a common interest in our society, that people have different interests. What patriotism does is to pretend to a common interest. And the flag is the symbol of that common interest. So patriotism plays the same role that certain phrases in our national language play. 

 

The U.S. is the only country in history to use weapons of mass destruction. The year 2005 marked the 60th anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. That anniversary, incidentally, came amid reports that the U.S. was redesigning atomic weapons that would be sturdier and more reliable and last longer. Where were you when the bombs were dropped and what were your thoughts at the time? 

I remember it very clearly because I had just returned from flying bombing missions in Europe. The war in Europe was over, but the war in Asia with Japan was still on. We flew back to this country in late July 1945. We were given a 30-day furlough before reporting back for duty with the intention that we would then go to the Pacific and continue in the air war against Japan. 

 

We were there waiting at the bus stop and there was this newsstand and the big headline, "Atomic Bomb Dropped on Hiroshima." Because the headline was so big, although I didn't know what an atomic bomb was, I assumed it must be a huge bomb. And my immediate reaction was, well, maybe then I won't have to go to Japan. Maybe this means the end of the war on Japan. So I was happy. 

 

I began to question the bombing of Hiroshima when I read John Hersey's book, Hiroshima , which is based on a series of articles he wrote for the New Yorker . He had gone to Hiroshima after the bombing and spoken to survivors. You can imagine what the survivors looked like—people without arms, legs, blinded, their skin something that you couldn't bear to look at. Hersey spoke to these survivors and wrote down their stories. When I read that, for the first time the effects of bombing on human beings came to me. 

 

I had dropped bombs in Europe, but I had not seen anybody on the ground because when you're bombing from 30,000 feet, you don't see anybody, you don't hear screams, you don't see blood, you don't know what's happening to human beings. When I read John Hersey, it came to me, what bombing did to human beings. That book changed my idea not just about bombing, but it changed my view of war because it made me realize that war now, in our time, in the time of high-level bombing and long-range shelling and death at a distance inevitably means the indiscriminate killing of huge numbers of people and cannot be accepted as a way of solving problems. 

 

You're sometimes described as an anarchist and/or a democratic socialist. Are you comfortable with those terms? And what do they mean to you? 
 
How comfortable I am with those terms depends on who's using them. I'm not uncomfortable when you use them. But if somebody is using them who I suspect does not really know what those terms mean, then I feel uncomfortable because I feel they need clarification. After all, the term anarchist to so many people means somebody who throws bombs, who commits terrorist acts, who believes in violence. Oddly enough, the term anarchist has always applied to individuals who have used violence, but not to governments that use violence. Since I do not believe in throwing bombs or terrorism or violence, I don't want that definition of anarchism to apply to me. 

Anarchism is also misrepresented as being a society in which there is no organization, no responsibility, just a kind of chaos, again, not realizing the irony of a world that is very chaotic, but to which the word anarchism is not applied. 

 

Anarchism to me means a society in which you have a democratic organization of society—decision making, the economy—and in which the authority of the capitalist is no longer there, the authority of the police and the courts and all of the instruments of control that we have in modern society, in which they do not operate to control the actions of people, and in which people have a say in their own destinies, in which they're not forced to choose between two political parties, neither of which represents their interests. So I see anarchism as meaning both political and economic democracy, in the best sense of the term. 

 

I see socialism, which is another term that I would accept comfortably, as meaning not the police state of the Soviet Union. After all, the word socialism has been commandeered by too many people who, in my opinion, are not socialists but totalitarians. To me, socialism means a society that is egalitarian and in which the economy is geared to human needs instead of business profits. 

 

The theme of the World Social Forum, which is held annually, is "Another World Is Possible." If you were to close your eyes for a moment, what kind of world might you envision? 

The world that I envision is one in which national boundaries no longer exist, in which you can move from one country to another with the same ease in which we can move from Massachusetts to Connecticut, a world without passports or visas or immigration quotas. True globalization in the human sense, in which we recognize that the world is one and that human beings everywhere have the same rights. 

 

In a world like that you could not make war because it is your family, just as we are not thinking of making war on an adjoining state or even a far-off state. It would be a world in which the riches of the planet would be distributed in an equitable fashion, where everybody has access to clean water. Yes, that would take some organization to make sure that the riches of the earth are distributed according to human need. 

 

A world in which people are free to speak, a world in which there was a true bill of rights. A world in which people had their fundamental economic needs taken care of would be a world in which people were freer to express themselves because political rights and free speech rights are really dependent on economic status and having fundamental economic needs taken care of. 

 

I think it would be a world in which the boundaries of race and religion and nation would not become causes for antagonism. Even though there would still be cultural differences and still be language differences, there would not be causes for violent action of one against the other. 

 

I think it would be a world in which people would not have to work more than a few hours a day, which is possible with the technology available today. If this technology were not used in the way it is now used, for war and for wasteful activities, people could work three or four hours a day and produce enough to take care of any needs. So it would be a world in which people had more time for music and sports and literature and just living in a human way with others. 

 

You've said that you became a teacher for a very modest reason: "I wanted to change the world." How close have you come to achieving your goal? 

All I can say is, I hope that by my writing and speaking and my activity that I have moved at least a few people towards a greater understanding and moved at least a few people towards becoming more active citizens. So I feel that my contribution, along with the contribution of millions of other people, if they continue, and if they are passed on to more and more people, and if our numbers grow, yes, one day we may very well see the kind of world that I envision.


David Barsamian is director of Alternative Radio (www. alternativeradio.org) and author, with Tariq Ali,  of Speaking of Empire & Resistance


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The Great Indian Chaos Theory


   

Was this the worst year experienced by India (and Indians) since the country was founded? Our annus horribilis?


RAMACHANDRA GUHA
Gripped and horrified by the sixty-hour, commercial-free, non-stop television drama played out recently in south Mumbai, some of us may have overlooked the fact that this was only the last in a series of terror attacks that our country and its people were subjected to in 2008. Before Mumbai, there was Delhi; before Delhi, Ahmedabad; and before that, Bangalore and Jaipur. The cumulative impact of these barbaric acts may have obliterated, from collective memory, the troubles caused in this twelvemonth by the fanatics on the other side. Through several long weeks in the autumn, cadres of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Bajrang Dal attacked villagers in Orissa for having converted to Christianity. As a consequence, some 200 places of worship were destroyed, about forty people killed, and at least fifty thousand rendered homeless.
 
Turn your attention now to the most beautiful state in India where, this past June, several years of peace and (a relative) stability were disturbed and destroyed by a competitive communalism. A few hectares of land asked for by a temple board sparked protests by the residents of the Kashmir Valley; in exchange, the residents of Jammu blocked the highways and paralysed the state administration. The conflict escalated: mass meetings were held in the Valley calling for azadi, mass meetings were held in Jammu demanding justice and self-respect.

 

Lest we forget, 2008 also saw the renewal of sectarian protests based on identities other than religion. The MPs of the Telangana Rashtra Samiti resigned their posts; the cadres of the United Liberation Front of Asom set off a series of bombs. The activities of ULFA and the TRS pale into insignificance in comparison to the activities, also in 2008, of that other parochial body, the Maharashtra Navnirman Samiti. For the Mumbai that the terrorists attacked in November was also the Mumbai which Raj Thackeray and his goons had sought, just a few weeks previously, to purge of 'outsiders' to the city.

 

Move now from the domains of society and religion to the material bases of human existence. The ground here, seemingly sure and solid, was disturbed this past year by the meltdown in the global economy. The collapse of banks on Wall Street had its ripple effect in India too, with the Planning Commission revising its growth estimates downwards, auto companies asking workers to stay at home three days a week, and BPO firms laying off thousands of employees. Indian companies that had ventured into acquisitions abroad saw the prestige of those purchases being undermined by falling prices and profits. Meanwhile, at home, the aam admi was hit by inflation, whose rate had now reached double digits for the first time in more than a decade.

2008 was also the year that Mother Nature played havoc with her Indian children. In the last week of November, many parts of the great city of Chennai found themselves knee-deep in water. Earlier, in August, the same fate had been handed out to many districts of the great state of Bihar. The Kosi river changed course for the first time in more than a century, the overflow covering huge swathes of land with a fast-moving sheet of water, with humans and cattle fleeing in its wake. More than three million people were affected by the floods.

 

For the citizens of India, the calendar year 2008 was marked and scarred by the malign activities of Islamic fanatics, Hindu bigots and linguistic chauvinists; by the arresting of the onward march of the Indian economy; and by cyclones and floods. This listing probably overlooks some other nasty things that took place this past twelvemonth. But even the incomplete evidence offered above begs the question—was this the worst year experienced by India (and Indians) since the country was founded?

 

Speaking as an Indian who has just turned fifty, I can immediately offer one other candidate for that (very dubious) honour—1984, a year that was a nightmare for India at any rate, if not (as George Orwell had once predicted) for the whole world. On January 1, 1984, the Congress government led by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was on the verge of completing four years in office. It was somewhat less than secure, for there was an insurgency on in the Punjab, and a major oppositional movement afoot in Assam. To these angry complaints of peripheral regions were added tensions of caste and class, and a vulnerable economy.

 

On or shortly after New Year's Day the Congress began planning its strategy for re-election. Its best chances, it thought, lay in a departure from its previously non-sectarian politics in favour of a more overtly 'Hindu' image. The prime minister began visiting temples across the country. Then, as the Khalistan movement gathered momentum, troops were sent into the Golden Temple. Two days of bloody battle—fortunately, not covered by live television—led to many hundreds of deaths and the near-destruction of the Akal Takht.

 

Never before had an elected government attacked a place of worship, still less a shrine as holy, and as beautiful, as this one. That was bad enough, but worse was to follow. Four months later, the prime minister was gunned down by her Sikh bodyguards. This act of revenge was immediately followed by another, as mobs led by Congress politicians roamed the streets of Delhi in search of Sikhs to kill. The rioting spread to other cities of northern India. In the end, more than three thousand Sikhs died, all of them innocent of crimes of any kind.

 

As it limped into its last month, the calendar year 1984 had already witnessed three dramatic, dreadful events—the attack on the Golden Temple, the assassination of a serving prime minister, the killings of innocent Sikhs. I remember all three well, and also the fourth that was to follow. On the morning of the December 2, I got married in Bangalore. As my wife and I proceeded to Goa on our honeymoon, news reached us of the gas leak in Bhopal, revealed in time to be the most serious industrial accident of the twentieth century, worse even than Chernobyl, killing more than two thousand Indians and maiming many thousand others.

 

Indira Gandhi's last year in office was tragic for her, and for her country. As it happens, Mrs Gandhi's first twelvemonth as prime minister must also be a front-runner in the race to be considered the 'most horrible of all'. The year 1966 began with the death, through a heart attack suffered in Tashkent, of the prime minister, Lal Bahadur Shastri. In his short time in office, the short-statured Shastri had grown in assurance and credibility. He had led India commandingly in a war provoked by Pakistan, he had laid the seeds of the Green Revolution, and he had taken steps to liberalise the economy.

 

When Shastri died in January, Indira Gandhi was chosen by the Congress bosses to replace him. She did not at first inspire confidence. Although immaculately groomed, she had little previous experience in government.She had a fine command of English as well as Hindi, but was little inclined (at least in public) to exercise it, so much so that the combination of her silence and her (sartorial) elegance led the socialist politician Ram Manohar Lohia to dub her a goongi gudiya (dumb doll). But then no doll, dumb or otherwise, has had to face as stern a test as Mrs Gandhi did in her first months in office. A check-list of select events in 1966 follows:

 

February: The Mizo National Front launches an armed uprising against Indian rule. Banks are looted, offices burnt, roads blocked. One town is captured and another threatened. The army is called in, followed by the air force; thus, for the first time since Independence, the Indian state uses air power against its own people.

March: A tribal rebellion in Bastar is quelled by the use of force—forty adivasis die in police firing, among them their venerated former maharaja, Pravir Chandra Bhanj Deo.

March, again: Successive failures of the monsoon lead to starvation deaths in the countryside. There are food riots in India's most populous city, Calcutta. In desperation, the prime minister goes to Washington to ask for aid in the form of wheat. The mission is captured in one American newspaper headline: 'New Indian Leader Comes Begging'. Meanwhile, the sorrow and the succour are captured at home in the only joke ever known to have been made by an Indian economist, which is that the country was now leading 'a ship-to-mouth existence'.

April: The peace talks between Naga rebels and the Indian government break down. The insurgents return to the jungle, only to re-emerge to blast trains and assassinate officials.

June: The foreign exchange reserves are so seriously depleted that the government is forced to devalue the rupee, an act considered by its critics to be an admission of national failure, since the devaluation came close on the heels of the begging for food, and since it was undertaken on the advice—or the orders—of the International Monetary Fund.

November: Angry sadhus calling for a ban on cow slaughter hold a massive meeting on the Boat Club lawns in New Delhi. One swami, even angrier than the rest, calls for the crowd to storm Parliament. The holy men make for the gates, but are stopped by the police. They then turn their wrath on passers-by and on property. Some 500 vehicles go up in flames, also the house of the Congress president and the guard room of All India Radio. For the first time since 1947, the army is called out to restore order in the capital.

 

Mrs Gandhi's first year in office was marked by a series of unfortunate events, and so also the first full calendar year that her father, Jawaharlal Nehru, served as prime minister. The year 1948 began with attacks by Hindu extremists on Muslims in Delhi and the Punjab, in revenge for attacks on minorities in what was now Pakistan. The Father of the Nation, Mahatma Gandhi, went on fast to help restore communal amity. For this noble and heroic act, he was murdered by a former member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. The nation was stunned and the fanatics shamed, for they now retreated into the margins. Their place was taken by the extremists on the other side. In the first week of March 1948, and acting on the orders of their Soviet masters, the Communist Party of India launched an armed insurrection against the Indian state.

 

I was not alive in 1948, but reading the newspapers of the time I sense that this must have been a very dark year indeed. This young and vulnerable nation was challenged by radicals of the left and right. There was a war on in Kashmir. Then a fourth obstacle presented itself. This was the princely state of Hyderabad which, unlike five hundred others of its ilk, was refusing to join the Indian Union.Now that would have been the end of the idea of India—for the territory of Hyderabad extended across the heart of the subcontinent, separating north India from the south.

 

To judge how bad 1948 must have been, consider this excerpt from a letter written in that year by the last British commander-in-chief of the Indian army, General Claude Auchinleck: 'The Sikhs may try to set up a separate regime. I think they probably will and that will be only a start of a general decentralisation and break-up of the idea that India is a country, whereas it is a subcontinent as varied as Europe. The Punjabi is as different from a Madrassi as a Scot is from an Italian. The British tried to consolidate it but achieved nothing permanent. No one can make a nation out of a continent of many nations.'

 

To the very many Indians reeling under the impact of the tragic events of 2008, let me offer this consolation—that there have been some other very bad years, too. 1984 and 1966 and 1948 were likewise peppered with violence and murder, and by riots and rebellions. Then we must also consider those years where a single event may have been momentous enough to undermine one's faith in the ideals of the Republic. I think here of 1962, an otherwise placid year marred by the humiliating defeat in the border war with China; of 1975, a year when India, for the first and hopefully the last time, was brought under the authoritarian rule of a single party run by a single family; of 1992, when the destruction of a medieval mosque and the riots that followed called into question the secular and plural ideals of the Indian Constitution; and of 2002, when a pogrom against Muslims was conducted by the Gujarat administration with the complicity of the central government, the event and its aftermath shaming India in the eyes of the world.

 

Here, then, is a listing of the bad and the very bad years experienced by India in the sixty years since independence: 1948, 1962, 1966, 1975, 1984, 1992, 2002, 2008. Which of these was the very worst? It is hard to give an unambiguous answer, for three reasons. The first is the imperfect state of our knowledge, the flawed powers of recall of the historian as much as of the citizen. Had Outlook given me 30,000 words instead of 3,000, this essay might have made for more mournful reading still—with many more unfortunate and tragic events described, with yet other calendar years being offered as likely candidates for the title of the 'worst ever'.

 

A second reason why I prefer not to pick one year above (or below) the rest is that, in such a choice, bias and prejudice must always play some part. The Indian for whom secularism is the most important binding value of the Republic will tend to think of 1992 and 2002 as being the worst of all years. The Indian motivated by a dislike of the Nehru-Gandhis might instead choose 1962 or 1975. The admirer of Mahatma Gandhi might cast his vote for the year in which the greatest of all Indians was murdered. Indian citizens of the Sikh faith may have the darkest memories of 1984.

 

The third reason why any singular choice must be contentious lies in the method being followed here. Because the media—and the electronic media even more so—tends to privilege spectacular, dramatic events, the citizen chooses to do so too. However, behind and beyond the killings and the bomb blasts lie very many less visible sufferings and tragedies. To speak only of this past year, 2008, even if the fidayeen had not targeted Mumbai, the MNS not targeted Biharis, and the VHP not targeted Christians, there would still have been millions of Indians without access to safe drinking water, decent schools and hospitals, and a fair living wage.Had these dramas not been played out in front of television screens, in homes and localities across the land there would still have been women abused and violated, Dalits and tribals harassed and victimised, slum-dwellers evicted, and beggars turned away. Had no gunmen entered the Taj on the night of 26th November, farmers plagued by debt and crop failure would still be killing themselves in the villages of Maharashtra.

 

This, indeed, may be the most significant reason why one must refuse to single out one particular year as more dreadful than the rest. For, in constructing an index of 'Gross National Unhappiness', the trials of daily life must necessarily count as much as the dislocations and deaths caused by extraordinary happenings such as terrorist strikes. However, given the variability of these different events and processes, and the impossibility of measuring them in quantitative terms, our index must remain hypothetical. I suspect that even the combined talents of Albert Einstein and Srinivasa Ramanujam would have found it impossible to accurately compute a Gross National Unhappiness index for a single year, let alone so many.

 

Who is to say which of the sixty years since India became independent has been the worst of all? Not this historian, at any rate. You may call this cowardice; I prefer to think of it as prudence. Suffice it to say that in our short career as a nation we have had quite some bad years and a few disastrous ones too. By my reckoning, we have had at least eight years that live on in public memory for the wrong reasons, for having been witness to crimes against individuals and communities of a scale that deserve that telling epithet, 'inhuman'.

 

Reflecting on that very troubled decade, the 1980s, a decade marked by caste wars and communal conflicts and many other nasty things besides, the sociologist Ashis Nandy remarked that 'In India the choice could never be between chaos and stability, but between manageable and unmanageable chaos, between humane and inhuman anarchy, and between tolerable and intolerable disorder'. I disagree with Nandy about many things, but think he has it exactly right here. For, as I have argued elsewhere, India is both an unnatural nation as well as an unlikely democracy. Never before has a single political unit been constructed from such disparate and diverse parts. Never before was a largely illiterate population given the right to choose its own rulers.

 

For India to be both united and untroubled would be a miracle. For it to be both democratic and free of conflict would be doubly so. Thus, in the 1940s, we overcame the crisis of Partition by forging a democratic and federal Constitution. No sooner had the nation observed its first Republic Day than it was confronted by oppositional movements based on language. When we contained and tamed these—by creating linguistic states—our unity was freshly imperilled by the Naga insurgency. Then, in the 1960s, anti-Hindi protests in Tamil Nadu and the rise of Naxalism in West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh posed fresh questions to the idea of India. In the 1970s we were subjected to the Emergency; and, when we came out of that, to separatist movements in Assam and the Punjab. The 1990s saw the sharpening of caste and religious identities, a process that unleashed conflicts and animosities that, when I last looked, had scarcely abated. And through these six decades there has remained the problem of the Kashmir Valley—was it, could it, must it be properly part of the Republic of India?

The history of independent India is one of fires being lit, doused, and then lit again. Seduced by the surge in some sectors of the economy, sections of the Indian elite (the media elite included) have taken our unity and our democracy for granted, and made a claim to be heard on the high tables of the world.In their eagerness to be seen as the spokespersons of a coming superpower, they have neglected the fissures and tensions within their own society.

 

If sections of the (so to say) thinking classes have been guilty of a premature internationalism, sections of our political elite have lapsed, meanwhile, into a malevolent parochialism. The parish is constituted variously: for the bjp it is the upper-caste Hindu; for the Congress it is the interests of the dynasty; for the lesser parties it is Indians of a particular caste or language group. Even at a time of national calamity these groups have not found it possible to suppress their sectarian affiliations (or personal ambitions) in favour of the public good. In the aftermath of the attack on Mumbai, Priyanka Gandhi was silly to claim that what the nation needed to combat terror was the spirit of that experienced instigator and provoker of extremism, Indira Gandhi. And it was despicable of Narendra Modi to attempt to bribe the widow of a police officer he had, just the past week, so unfairly abused.

 

As an unnatural nation and an unlikely democracy, India was never destined for a smooth ride. It is not, and can never be, Sweden or Norway— that is to say, a small, mostly homogeneous country with little crime, less violence, and very few poor people.

 
That said, 2008 was, even by our standards, a truly horrible year for Indians. The task before us now is not to put this past twelvemonth behind us, but rather to learn, from what happened then, to more sensitively manage the tensions and conflicts within. The premature internationalists must set aside their concern—perhaps one should say 'obsession'—with the number of Indian billionaires in the Forbes list, the number of nuclear weapons we own, and the memberships of international bodies we covet. The parochialists, for their part, might think of working to moderate conflicts of language, caste and religion, rather than—as is their wont—seeking to intensify them. Were this to happen, we may yet succeed in making 2009 a year in which the Indian chaos shall be manageable, the Indian anarchy, humane, and the Indian disorder, tolerable.





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Wednesday 24 December 2008

Lok Sabha passes 8 bills in 17 minutes without debate

Amid din, LS passes 8 bills in 17 minutes without debate
24 Dec 2008, 0640 hrs IST, TNN


NEW DELHI: For the last two days, as the much-extended special session of parliament called for the Manmohan Singh government's July 22 trust vote drew to a close, a flurry of bills - four on Monday and a staggering eight in 17 minutes on Tuesday - were passed even as the Lok Sabha was frequently in disorder.

On Tuesday afternoon, when BJP MPs stormed the well rejecting the government's statement on minority affairs minister A R Antulay's demand that the shooting of ATS chief Hemant Karkare should be probed, the chair quickly took up pending legislation which had swelled to nine from the five listed at the start of the day.

With just one session of the current Lok Sabha to go in February-March, this week's proceedings marked yet another low for parliament.

The Times of India has consistently reported on the absence of debates and the decline in sittings. In its report on October 21 this year, TOI had pointed out that parliament had met only 32 days this year and the expectation that it should meet for a minimum of 100 days was not going to be met by a long margin. Looking at past years, the Lok Sabha met for as many as 151 days in 1956, and just 98 and 109 days in 1976 and 1985, respectively. In 1999, it had met for 51 days.

The procedure adopted on Tuesday was quite irregular as MPs complained that additional bills, pushed in as the supplementary list of business, were not circulated, while legislation was not discussed at all. In fact, amid the tremendous din in the House, it was barely possible to track which bill had been passed expect by keeping an eye on the minister rising in response to the chair.

Speaker Somnath Chatterjee, who had conducted proceedings since the morning, was absent when the House met at 2pm and, as was the case on Monday, deputy Speaker Charanjit Atwal simply ignored the tumult and went ahead with the legislative business. As it became apparent that the government was moving bill after bill, enraged Left MPs rushed to the chair in protest.

Left MPs N N Krishnadas and Sunil Khan gesticulated at the chair demanding that the proceedings be halted until they were hauled back by CPM deputy leader Mohammed Salim. The Left MPs then stood in a group and tore copies of the bills in their possession and flung them around in order to underline the mockery of parliamentary practice. All along, BJP MPs kept up a steady chorus of anti-Antulay slogans.

The bills rushed through the Lok Sabha on Tuesday were on the Post-Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, amendments to the Prevention of Corruption Act, Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority Amendment Bill, Compensatory Afforestation Act, Constitution (Scheduled Tribes) UT Order (Amendment), South Asian University Bill, Code of Criminal Procedure Amendment Bill and Collection of Statistics Bill.

Later, BJP spokesperson Shahnawaz Hussain said a ninth bill, High Court and Supreme Court Judges Salaries and Conditions of Service Bill, could not be taken up as law minister H R Bhardwaj was not in the House. However, ministry officials said a junior minister had been deputed but the bill was not taken up by the chair. What shocked MPs was the sheer opportunistic manner in which four bills were brought onto the list of business at the last minute.

On Monday, for a full 26 minutes, as the BJP MPs were yelling their lungs out in the well, telecom minister A Raja moved the Information Technology Amendment Bill clause by painful clause. A little earlier, railway minister Lalu Prasad moved the Appropriations Bill for his ministry. Other legislation to be passed included the Gram Nyayalaya Bill and the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in Animals Bill.

By any standard, passing 12 bills in two days is a mammoth task even if the House had decided to sit late into the night. Even the most innocuous of bills attracts a dozen-odd speakers and often a couple of hours of discussion can be expected. On Tuesday, ministers who had spent the morning in their offices in the Lok Sabha being briefed by officials had nothing more to do than move bills in the House.

Parliament has met irregularly during the current Lok Sabha, often due to political blockades and sometimes, as in the case of the just-concluded session, to avoid the possibility of a no-trust vote being moved by the opposition. And while the sittings have declined, the practice of passing bills when the House is in disorder has almost become a norm - a precedent that many MPs feel bodes ill for the health of parliament.



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Economics as Pseudoscience


 By The Mogambo Guru

Around here, Today's Big Burning Question (TBBQ) is "Will the stupid Mogambo ever shut up and actually get any work done?" while I am consumed with my own version of TBBQ, which is "Can the Federal Reserve continue to lower interest rates forever, to zero and beyond, perhaps to negative infinity?"

You will probably agree with me that "negative interest rates" is a very interesting theory, as is "negative infinity" and the concept of a totally flat yield curve where all interest rates for every maturity period, from three-month T-bills to 30-year bonds, all pay the same interest rate! Weird stuff!

Obviously, it is something that we would have hoped would be delved into more deeply, as the headline "Treasury Curve Flattens on Speculation Fed May Go Beyond Cuts" seems to so richly imply.

Alas, it was not to be, and thus the fascination of theoretical "negative interest rates" remains just another amazing artifact of mathematics, like the artificial "consumption function" that is at the root of the econometric neo-Keynesian crapola that is practiced by Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve to actually try and guide monetary policy, which they have done to such disastrous consequences, and which is a theory that was previously taught by him as the actual head of the economics department of Princeton University, where nobody in the math department or the history department ever questioned him, his ridiculous theories, or even said, "You must be some kind of moron to think the stupid equation-laden crap coming out of your stupid mouth is real economics, when any semi-literate halfwit can see that the Classical and the Austrian schools of economics are obviously right, whilst you low-wattage 'constant stimulus via deficit spending' morons are going to destroy the dollar and the US economy with your econometric insanity!" which, I think, says all you need to know about the intellectual prowess of Princeton University.

Instead of helping me shame Princeton for promoting the equivalence of astrology as a science and how America is now ruined for it, I found that I had accidentally missed the whole point of the article, and the headline "Treasury Curve Flattens on Speculation Fed May Go Beyond Cuts" was significant in that the important point was that the Fed "may go beyond cuts" in interest rates, and that Ben Bernanke admitted that "there was limited room to lower rates", and now has "suggested" that "the central bank would consider buying Treasuries to prevent yields from rising"!!

Notice the part at the end where I added the two exclamation points as my clever non-verbal editing way of saying, "The freaking Federal Reserve is creating money and credit for its own use so that it can buy increasing amounts of newly-issued Treasury bonds for itself, and other securities and assets, in order to manipulate the supposed free market while giving the government oodles and oodles of new money to spend because the Congressional lowlife morons have now spent us into the grave and are so panicked that they will reflexively respond with MORE deficit-spending for the Federal Reserve to finance by creating the money and credit to pay for it, which will cause inflation and economic distortions a-plenty!!!"

Notice again the use of, not two, but three exclamation points, which is again my clever non-verbal editing way of saying, "I am freaked out at the blatant corruption and fraud that is happening right in front of our noses by Wall Street, Congress and the Federal Reserve, and people ought to be sending me money with which to do emergency research into animating the dead so as to raise an Army of the Undead to descend upon Washington, DC, and eat the brains of anyone tainted with the stench of Congress and the Federal Reserve!"

Mr Bernanke is apparently not afraid of my threats of mobilizing an army of vengeful zombies to send against him and his loathsome ilk, and ignoring me completely, defiantly said that one option open to the Fed is to buy "longer-term Treasury or agency securities on the open market in substantial quantities", which seems really odd, coming as it does at the same time as "International investors purchased a net US$34.6 billion of Treasury notes and bonds in October, compared with purchases of $20.7 billion a month earlier."

Or maybe it isn't odd, as "Investors sold US stocks, corporate bonds and a record amount of debt issued by mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other agencies, according to the Treasury."

Bloomberg quoted Suvrat Prakash of BNP Paribas Securities saying that "There is still a lot of demand for assets at these yields. Whenever risky assets are performing as badly as they are now, you see people flock to safe assets."

Safe? Did he say safe? Hell, yes, it's safe! It's as safe as any fiat currency can be; if the government needs a little money to pay you back, it merely gets its central bank to create some credit in the banks from thin air, which becomes money when somebody borrows the money to buy the government debt! Hahahaha! What a racket!

So, since all the world's currencies are now fiat currencies, and they can all be easily inflated by infinite amounts until they are as worthless as a Zimbabwean dollar, thus they are all equally as safe and ultimately as valuable, too! Hahahaha!

About this time, you would normally expect me to switch to a rant on why this means that you should be buying gold, silver and oil, and indeed all commodities, but I will not, as your mere expectation proves that you understand this stuff perfectly!

I am very proud of you, my darling Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR)!

Richard Daughty is general partner and COO for Smith Consultant Group, serving the financial and medical communities, and the editor of The Mogambo Guru economic newsletter - an avocational exercise to heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it.




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Merry Xmas - An article on "Police State Britain"


 The Paranoia Squad

A British police unit is demonising peaceful protesters to stay in business. For how much longer will the government permit the police forces to drum up business like this? And at what point do we decide that this country is beginning to look like a police state?


GEORGE MONBIOT
When you hear the term "domestic extremist", whom do you picture? How about someone like Dr Peter Harbour? He's a retired physicist and university lecturer, who worked on the nuclear fusion reactor run by European governments at Culham in Oxfordshire. He's 70 next year. He has never been tried or convicted of an offence, except the odd speeding ticket. He has never failed a security check. Not the sort of person you had in mind? Then you don't work for the police.

Dr Harbour was one of the people who campaigned to save a local beauty spot � Thrupp Lake - between the Oxfordshire villages of Radley and Abingdon. They used to walk and swim and picnic there, and watch otters and kingfishers. RWE npower, which owns Didcot power station, wanted to empty the lake and fill it with pulverised fly ash(1).

The villagers marched, demonstrated and sent in letters and petitions. Some people tried to stop the company from cutting down trees by standing in the way. Their campaign was entirely peaceful. But RWE npower discovered that it was legally empowered to shut the protests down.

Using the Protection from Harrassment Act 1997, it obtained an injunction against the villagers and anyone else who might protest. This forbids them from "coming to, remaining on, trespassing or conducting any demonstrations or protesting or other activities" on land near the lake(2). If anyone breaks this injunction they could spend five years in prison.

The act, parliament was told, was meant to protect women from stalkers. But as soon as it came onto the statute books, it was used to stop peaceful protest. To obtain an injunction, a company needs to show only that someone feels "alarmed or distressed" by the protesters, a requirement so vague that it can mean almost anything. Was this an accident of sloppy drafting? No. Timothy Lawson-Cruttenden, the solicitor who specialises in using this law against protesters, boasts that his company "assisted in the drafting of the … Protection from Harassment Act 1997″(3). In 2005 parliament was duped again, when a new clause, undebated in either chamber, was slipped into the Serious Organised Crime and Police Act(4). It peps up the 1997 act, which can now be used to ban protest of any kind.

Mr Lawson-Cruttenden, who represented RWE npower, brags that the purpose of obtaining injunctions under the act is "the criminalisation of civil disobedience"(5). One of the advantages of this approach is that very low standards of proof are required: "hearsay evidence … is admissable in civil courts". The injunctions he obtains criminalise all further activity, even though, as he admits, "any allegations made remain untested and unproven."(6)

Last week, stung by bad publicity, npower backed down. The villagers had just started to celebrate when they made a shocking discovery: they now feature on an official list of domestic extremists.

The National Extremism Tactical Co-ordination Unit (NETCU) is the police team coordinating the fight against extremists. To illustrate the threats it confronts, the NECTU site carries images of the people marching with banners, of peace campaigners standing outside a military base and of the Rebel Clown Army (whose members dress up as clowns to show that they have peaceful intentions). It publishes press releases about Greenpeace and the climate camp at Kingsnorth(7). All this, the site suggests, is domestic extremism.

NECTU publishes a manual for officers policing protests. To help them identify dangerous elements, it directs them to a list of "High Court Injunctions that relate to domestic extremism campaigns", published on NECTU's website(8). On the first page is the injunction obtained by npower against the Radley villagers, which names Peter Harbour and others.Dr Harbour wrote to the head of NETCU, Steve Pearl, to ask for his name to be removed from the site. Mr Pearl refused. So Dr Harbour remains a domestic extremist.

It was this Paranoia Squad which briefed the Observer last month about "eco-terrorists". The article maintained that "a lone maverick eco-extremist may attempt a terrorist attack aimed at killing large numbers of Britons."(9) The only evidence it put forward was that someone in Earth First! had stated that the world is overpopulated. This, it claimed, meant that the movement might attempt a campaign of mass annihilation. The same could be said about the United Nations, the Optimum Population Trust and anyone else who has expressed concern about population levels.

The Observer withdrew the article after NETCU failed to provide any justification for its claims(10). NETCU now tells me that the report "wasn't an accurate reflection of our views"(11). But the article contained a clue as to why the police might wish to spread such stories. "The rise of eco-extremism coincides with the fall of the animal rights activist movement. Police said the animal rights movement was in disarray" and that "its critical mass of hardcore extremists was sufficiently depleted to have halted its effectiveness."(12) If, as the police maintain, animal rights extremism is no longer dangerous, it is hard for NETCU to justify its existence: unless it can demonstrate that domestic extremism exists elsewhere. A better headline for the article might have been "Keep funding us, say police, or civilisation collapses."

NETCU claims that domestic extremism "is most often associated with single-issue protests, such as animal rights, anti-war, anti-globalisation and anti-GM crops."(13) With the exception of animal rights protests, these campaigns in the UK have been overwhelmingly peaceful. As the writer and activist Merrick Godhaven points out, the groups whose tactics come closest to those of violent animal rights activists are anti-abortion campaigns(14). The UK Life League, for example, has published the names and addresses of people involved in abortion and family planning(15,16). Two of its members have been convicted of sending pictures of mutilated foetuses to doctors and pharmacies(17). Anti-abortionists in the US have murdered doctors, nurses and receptionists. Yet there is no mention of the UK Life League or anti-abortion campaigning on the NETCU site. This looks to me like partisan policing.

Just as the misleading claims of the security services were used to launch an illegal and unnecessary war against Iraq, NETCU's exaggerations will be used to justify the heavy-handed treatment of peaceful protesters. In both cases police and spies are distracted from dealing with genuine threats of terrorism and violence.

For how much longer will the government permit the police forces to drum up business like this? And at what point do we decide that this country is beginning to look like a police state?

www.monbiot.com

References:

1. saveradleylakes.org.uk/
2. The High Court of Justice. Order arising from Case HQ07X00505. para 6.4. netcu.org.uk

3. lawson-cruttenden.co.uk

4. Sections 125-127. opsi.gov.uk

5. Timothy Lawson-Cruttenden, 2007. Injunctive Relief Against Harassment and trespass.Case Commentaries, p194. Environmental Liability.

6. ibid.

7. netcu.org.uk

8. NETCU, November 2007. Policing Protest: pocket legislation guide, p51. It can be viewed here: indymedia.org.uk

9. Mark Townsend and Nick Denning, 9th November 2008. Police warn of growing threat from eco-terrorists. The Observer.

10. Stephen Pritchard, 23rd November 2008. Anonymous sources and claims of eco-terrorism. The Observer

11. NETCU, pers comm, 22nd December 2008.

12. Mark Townsend and Nick Denning, ibid.

13. netcu.org.uk

14. Merrick Godhaven, 15th November 2008. Civil Disobedience is a Terrorist Threat. UK Watch.

15. Leading article, 12th March 2006. Email campaigns. The Observer.

16. Linda Harrison, 9th July 2001. Anti abortion activists step up UK Net campaign. theregister.co.uk

17. Jeremy Laurance, 8th May 2006. Anti-abortionist jailed for photo protest. independent.co.uk




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Tuesday 23 December 2008

Can You See The Fog?


  

Links between financial crises and recessions are unalterably vague


KAUSHIK BASU
Until a few weeks ago there was no agreement among experts on whether or not a recession was imminent. Then last week, America's National Bureau of Economic Research—widely viewed as the final arbiter on such matters—declared that the recession is here. Not just that, it started in December 2007. So a recession, it seems, is not only unpredictable, but also cannot always be recognised when present. Clearly, this is not the high point of the economics profession.

The fact that this financial crisis came upon us with so little forewarning has led to a lot of criticism of economics as a discipline. Some of the criticism is valid, but not all. First, it needs to be appreciated that in economics a prediction itself can alter the object of the prediction. Hence, for certain kinds of economic phenomena, forecasting may be a logical impossibility. Consider predicting a fall in stock prices one month in advance. If anyone can actually master the art of doing this, then, as soon as the person makes this forecast, people will sell their shares and prices will come down immediately. So no one can have a reputation for predicting share price declines well in advance.

Second, in these troubling times, the demand is for economists who do not temporise but make clear statements, who do not waver about the causes of the crisis but are unequivocal. This, however, is the wrong lesson.

I am currently reading Jean-Jacques Rousseau's autobiography, Confessions. Poor fellow. When at last, in his late forties, he makes it as a man of letters, music composer, trenchant critic of 18th century European mores and, above all, the grand philosopher, his bladder gives way. Page after page, he laments about poor "urine retention" and how he cannot accept invitations from kings and dukes for fear that he may have to run, mid-conversation, to the loo. He sees the best doctors of France and Geneva. The medical diagnoses that follow (and are described in some detail) remind me of the pronouncements on the current crisis by finance experts. Notwithstanding the primitive knowledge of human anatomy, Rousseau's doctors prescribed confidence treatments that had no scientific basis.

The correct stance in such situations is to recognise that we do not understand. So for economists, now is the time to be sceptical and to question. Fortunately, scepticism is the mainspring of knowledge. It may not be entirely coincidental that at the same time that contributions to knowledge in ancient Greece peaked, the philosophy of scepticism was also at its height. Pyrrho of Ellis (circa 300 BC), the "apostle of disillusionment", lectured on the value of equivocation. Pyrrho's disciple, Timon, wrote about the essential ambiguity of nature. Later, circa 200 AD, Sextus Empiricus penned a series of books challenging traditional knowledge. This is clear from the titles of his many books—Against Dogmatists; Against the Physicists; Against the Ethicists; Against the Professors. He wrote more, but you get the point.

In economics the big open question is the connection between financial assets and the real economy. If one million rupee notes owned by a businessperson burns down, what will happen to the total amount of apples, homes and haircuts in the economy? Not only do we not have an answer to this question, we do not even have a methodology for answering it. Till we get to grips on this, the link between financial crises and recessions will remain ambiguous.

In this age of quick claims and hasty recognitions, our urge is for quick assertions. However, 'social phenomena' are inherently ambiguous. To ignore this is to court failure.

Postscript: Tenuous though its links may be with science and scholarship, and feeble though it may be in humour, let me end with the best account of ambiguity that I have heard.It consists of a husband's remark and how one may interpret it. After a lady was declared dead and was being carried out of the house in a coffin, the pall-bearers bumped into a wall, whereupon they heard a groan. The coffin was promptly set down and, lo and behold, the lady had not died. She was taken out and nursed back to health. Ten years passed, and then she died. Her corpse was placed in a coffin; and, as the pall-bearers carried it out, they heard her husband's anxious voice, "Mind the wall".




(Kaushik Basu is Chair and C. Marks Professor, Department of Economics, Cornell University)




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