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Tuesday 24 June 2008

A thought provoking essay - a good read!

 Will India Become A Superpower?

The leading historian offers seven reasons why it will not. And then, to this objective judgement, he adds the subjective desires of a citizen—that it should not even attempt to become one.


RAMACHANDRA GUHA
A specially commissioned essay for Outlook
Sixty years ago, in the summer of 1948, our nation, then newly born, was struggling for its very survival. In January, Mahatma Gandhi had been murdered by a Hindu fanatic. The act had shocked many Indians, but apparently it had the approval of some. According to one news report, the jailed assassin, Nathuram Godse, received an average of 50 letters a day expressing admiration for his action. This was part of a much wider right-wing, religious, reaction against Partition. Hindu and Sikh refugees from Pakistan were calling for retribution against the Muslims who had stayed behind in India. The relations between the two communities were poisoned further by the tribal invasion of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. With the raiders aided and equipped by the Pakistani army, the religious conflict had, inevitably, become a national one. A bloody battle was on in the high mountains of the Himalaya, as the Indian Army sought to rid Kashmir of the intruders.
Six weeks after Godse fired those three shots from a Beretta pistol in New Delhi, the then undivided Communist Party of India (CPI met in a secret conclave in Calcutta. At this meeting, the leadership of the CPI was taken away from a gentle and very cultured Kumaoni named P.C. Joshi. Joshi wanted the Communists to collaborate with Jawaharlal Nehru's government in building the new nation. His replacement, an austere Maharashtrian named B.T. Ranadive, believed on the other hand that the transfer of power from British to Indian hands was a sham, and that Nehru and his men were puppets of the Western imperialist powers. He took the Communists towards a new 'people's war' line, which mandated the overthrow of the Indian State through armed struggle, and its replacement by a single-party dictatorship.
In June 1948, the infant Indian State looked very fragile indeed. It was pierced from the left by the Communists, and pinched from the right by the Hindu extremists. And there were other problems aplenty. Eight million refugees had to be resettled; provided with land, homes, employment, and a sense of citizenship. Five hundred princely states had to be integrated, one by one, a process that involved much massaging of egos (for the Maharajas tended to think very highly of themselves), and just a little coercion.
The task of princely integration was in the hands of Vallabhbhai Patel and his outstanding secretary, V.P. Menon. Some rulers were willing to immediately join up with the new Dominion. Others waited in the hope of better terms. And some princes were actively hostile. In this very hot summer of 1948, the ruler giving the most trouble was the Nizam of Hyderabad, who was probably the wealthiest man in the world, and without question the most miserly. He insisted that the independence of his (very large and very badly administered realm) had been guaranteed by the British monarch; and that he would now negotiate a separate treaty with His Majesty's Government, which would assure the State of Hyderabad its political sovereignty.
British politicians, Winston Churchill among them, were egging on the Nizam to declare independence. That was a truly dangerous possibility. For, as Sardar Patel observed, an independent Hyderabad would be "a cancer in the belly of India", cutting off communications between the north and the south of the country. Despite the ruler's ambitions, it was clear that the majority of the people of Hyderabad State wished to be citizens of a free India. After waiting a year for the Nizam to come to terms, Patel sent in the Army and compelled him to join the Union.
Few Indians now alive know how uncertain our future looked in the summer of 1948.The question then being asked everywhere was 'Will India Survive?' Now, 60 years down the road, that fearful query has been replaced by a far more hopeful one, namely, 'Will India Become a Superpower?'
This new, anticipatory, expectant question has been prompted by the extraordinary resilience, in the long term, of India's democratic institutions. When the first general elections were held, in 1952, they were dubbed the 'Biggest Gamble in History'. Never before had universal adult franchise been tried in a poor, divided, and largely illiterate society. Evidently, it is a gamble that has worked. The country has successfully held 14 general elections to the national Parliament, as well as countless polls to different state assemblies. Rates of voter participation are higher than in Western democracies. And after what happened in Florida in 2000, we can add that the conduct of polls is at least as fair.
Back in 1948, doubts were also being cast about the Indian experiment with nationhood. Never before had a new nation not based its unity on a single language, religion, or common enemy (or, preferably, all of the above). However, all Indians did not have to speak Hindi or be Hindus. They did not even have to hate the people who colonised them (in fact, Mahatma Gandhi, the Father of the Nation, counted an Englishman, the Christian priest Charles Freer Andrews, as his closest friend). As an inclusive, plural and non-adversarial model of nationalism, the idea of India had no precedent or imitator. It set itself apart from European nationalisms, which were based on a common language and, often, a shared faith and common enemy as well. Thus the citizens of England were united by the fact that they all spoke English, that they were mostly Protestant, and that many of them disliked France and the French. Likewise, the citizens of Poland spoke Polish, were almost all Catholic, and often detested Russia and the Russians. (In this respect, the idea of Pakistan is wholly European, based as it is on the privileging of a single religion, Islam; of a single language, Urdu; and, not least, on a collective hatred of the larger nation to its east.)
In the words of the political theorist Sunil Khilnani, India has been "a substantial bridgehead of effervescent liberty on the Asian continent". As such, it inspires hope that the largely poor, still divided, and formerly colonised countries of Africa can likewise move towards a more democratic political system. Meanwhile, through its collective coexistence of different faiths, languages, cultures and cuisines, India is a better model for world governance than more homogeneous countries such as China, Japan or the United States. Once, the heterogeneity of India was seen as its greatest flaw; now, it may justly be celebrated as its greatest strength.
India was not expected to survive as a democracy; but it has. India was not expected to hold together as a single nation; but it has. These manifest successes, achieved against the odds and against the logic of human history, have compelled a worldwide admiration. If calls are now being heard that India must be made a permanent member of the Security Council of the United Nations, then these demands are not just legitimate, but also overdue. It is India's long-term record as a stable, multicultural democracy that lies behind its claims for a place on the High Table of Global Affairs. But if politics were all, then we would not be asking whether India will become a superpower. That question is prompted also by the spectacular success, in the short term, of the Indian economy, the impressive growth rates of the past decade, the entrepreneurial drive manifest in such crucial, cutting-edge sectors such as information technology and the creation of an ever larger and ever more confident middle class.
Superficially, the summer of 2008 looks all too different from the summer of 1948.Then, we Indians did not know how long we would hold together as a single nation; whether we would come under a Communist dictatorship of the left or a theocratic regime on the right, or simply balkanise into a dozen or more different parts. Now—despite the dissensions in the borderlands, in Kashmir and the Northeast—we know that we are and will be a single country, whose leaders shall be chosen by (and also replaced by) ourselves. We no longer fear for our existence as a sovereign nation or as a functioning democracy. What we hope for instead is a gradual enhancement of our material and political powers, and the acknowledgement of our nation as one of the most powerful and respected on earth.
Look more closely, however, and perhaps the more things appear to change, the more they are actually the same. For, in the summer of 2008, the Indian State once more faces a challenge from left-wing extremism. The Prime Minister of India, no less, has identified the Communist Party of India (Maoist), known more familiarly as the Naxalites, as the "greatest internal security threat" facing the nation. The Union home ministry lists more than 150 districts as being 'Naxalite-affected'. This is an exaggeration for, with even one single, stray, incident, a state government is moved to get a district listed under that category, so as to garner more funds from the Central treasury. Still, the Naxalites do have a considerable presence in some 40 or 50 districts; these spread out over the central and eastern parts of the country. Their greatest gains have been among tribal communities treated with contempt and condescension by the Indian State and by the formal processes of Indian democracy.

The conventional wisdom is that the erstwhile Untouchables or Dalits, are the social group who are most victimised in India. In fact, the tribals fare even worse. In a recent book, the demographer Arun Maharatna compared the life chances of an average Dalit with that of an average tribal. On all counts the tribals were found to be more disadvantaged. Some 30.1 per cent of Dalits are literate, but only 23.8 per cent of tribals. As many as 41.5 per cent of Dalits live below the official poverty line; however, the proportion of poor tribal households is even higher, at 49.5 per cent. One in six Dalits has no access to doctors or health clinics; as many as one in four tribals suffers from the same disability. 63.6 per cent of Dalits can avail of safe drinking water, but only 43.2 per cent of tribals.

Two summers ago, I visited the districts of Dantewara and Bastar in the state of Chhattisgarh. Here, a civil war is under way, which pits the Naxalites on one side against a vigilante group promoted by the state government on the other. The revolutionaries identify with the tribals in the short term, fighting for better wages for forest work and against their harassment by petty officials. Their long-term goal, however, is the capture of political power by armed struggle. In their bid to plant the Red Flag on the Red Fort in New Delhi, the revolutionaries view tribals merely as a stepping stone, or, one might say, as cannon fodder. The Maoists use violence regularly and recklessly. Policemen are slaughtered in their police stations, civilians killed by land mines set off on main roads. Their treatment of dissenters is especially savage; they are tried in 'people's courts' and then sentenced to amputation or death.

When I was in Bastar, the Nepali Maoists had just declared a ceasefire.Their leader, Prachanda, had gone so far as to say that multi-party democracy was the political system most suited to the 21st century. I put it to a Naxalite ideologue we met that perhaps they could think of emulating their Nepali comrades. He was contemptuous of the suggestion. He insisted that in India bourgeois democracy was a sham; here, the state had to be overthrown through the use of force. Shortly afterwards, I came across a statement on the Internet, issued by Ganapathi, general secretary of the Communist Party of India (Maoist). This reported the 'successful completion' of a party congress "held deep in the forests of one of the several guerrilla zones in the country...". The party congress "reaffirmed the general line of the new democratic revolution with agrarian revolution as its axis and protracted people's war as the path of the Indian revolution...". The meeting "was completed amongst great euphoria with a call to the world people: Rise up as a tide to smash Imperialism and its running dogs! Advance the Revolutionary war throughout the world!"

Tragically, the vicious and violent methods of the Maoists have been reproduced by the state government of Chhattisgarh. They have set up a vigilante army called Salwa Judum, composed of tribal youths equipped with rifles. Bands of vigilantes now roam the Bastar countryside accompanied by the police and paramilitary, in search of Naxalite sympathisers, alleged or real. They have attacked dozens of villages and burnt hundreds of homes. They have killed many innocent people and terrorised many others. With the Supreme Court, as I write, are some first-hand testimonies of villagers who have suffered at the hand of these state-supported vigilantes. The residents of Pakela village, for example, recorded that 20 of their homes had been burnt by Salwa Judum cadres. "Everything in the homes," reads the English translation of their evidence, "rice, clothes, utensils and money—got reduced to ashes." Other villagers offered more precise accounts of the damage, listing the number of paddy sacks or hens or pigs seized or burnt from individual households. The collective sentiments of those targeted by the Salwa Judum were expressed most poignantly by the residents of Korcholi village. They said:


"The frightened villagers of Gangaloor, Cherpal and Bijapur, seeing the Salwa Judum, have fled into [the] forests. The Salwa Judum burns the food stock, houses and clothes. They also break the cooking utensils. Raping women, slitting people's throat to kill, killing people by drowning them in water, robbing them etc are the main activities of the Salwa Judum leaders. Why is this happening in our country, why is this happening in Chhattisgarh? Why has the Chhattisgarh administration been running this? Has our chief minister been elected only for this?"
The creation and consolidation of Salwa Judum has greatly increased the level of violence in Dantewara. Villagers are being forced to choose one side or the other. Those who hesitate to join the vigilantes are savagely set upon. In the past two years, close to a thousand people have died as a consequence of the conflict. Meanwhile, the Salwa Judum and the state government between them have forcibly uprooted some 50,000 villagers and put them in camps along the main roads.

An atmosphere of fear and terror pervades the district. Families, clans, tribes and villages are divided by the civil war. As ever, it is the innocent who suffer most. For, the majority of villagers are not interested in this fight at all. They have been dragged into it, willy-nilly, by the Maoists on the one side and the Salwa Judum on the other.As one tribal in the village of Nelasnar told me: "Hamein donon taraf se dabaav hai aur hum beech mein pis gaye." It sounds far tamer in English—pressured from both sides, here we are, squeezed in the middle.

Salwa Judum is a model of how not to fight left-wing extremism. The menace of Naxalism—and let us be clear about this, it is a menace—can be tamed and tackled in two ways: by prompt and efficient policing, and by providing the tribals a greater share in political power and in the fruits of economic development. Unhappily, even tragically, the tribals have become the main victims of economic globalisation. In the days when the state occupied the commanding heights of the Indian economy, the adivasis lost their lands and livelihoods to hydel power plants and commercial forestry schemes. Now, they lose their lands and livelihoods to mining projects which excavate the vast amounts of iron ore and bauxite found on or under land the tribals live on, but whose ownership (or rights of disposal) are claimed by the state. Non-tribal politicians hand over these resources to large firms, foreign and Indian, in exchange for a share of the proceeds. All that the tribals get, in exchange, is dispossession.

In naming themselves after Mao Zedong, the Naxalites hope to do in this country what that Chinese revolutionary accomplished in his—that is to say, to build a single-party dictatorship that calls itself, in Orwellian fashion, a 'People's Democracy'. This dream is a fantasy, but, since the Maoists are determined to play it out, a bloody war of attrition lies ahead of us. The Indian State will not be able to easily recapture the hearts and minds of the adivasis, nor able either to authoritatively reassert its control, by day and especially by night, in the territories where the extremists are now active. At the same time, if the Maoists try to move into the open country, they will be mowed down by the Indian Army. But in the hills and forests of Central India, the conflict will persist, without any side claiming a decisive victory. In the next decade, thousands of lives will be lost, some of policemen, others of Naxalites, the majority perhaps of adivasis caught in the crossfire.

There is then this serious threat posed by left-wing Communist extremism. And—as in 1948—there is also a serious threat offered by right-wing religious fundamentalism. However, while the Naxalites are implacably opposed to the Indian Constitution, the religious bigots work within the democratic process, seeking to divert and distort it. The word 'Hindutva' was coined by the revolutionary-turned-reactionary Vinayak Damodar Savarkar. The most effective work in pursuing the political philosophy that bears this name was undertaken by his younger colleague Madhav Sadashiv Golwalkar. Golwalkar was head of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) in the first, formative decades of Indian independence. He was preceptor and mentor to, among other men, Atal Behari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani, as well as countless other political activists who have occupied positions of influence and importance in different states of India.

Golwalkar's core philosophy is contained in a book entitled A Bunch of Thoughts. Published in 1966, this is a collection of addresses delivered in RSS shakhas across the land. The book consistently elevates Hindus to a superior place in the history of humankind. Hindus had once ruled the world; and they would do so again in the future. Their science was once superior to Western science (Golwalkar sneered that the Europeans were eating raw, uncooked meat while we Hindus were composing the Vedas); and so it would be again.In sum, the Hindus were a Chosen People, favoured by destiny and the Divine Spirit to rule over other lands and other religions.

If Hindutva merely promoted a nostalgia for the alleged achievements of the Hindus in the past, one need not have worried very much. But it also assures them victory in the present; and insists that this victory can come about only by trampling upon the rights of Indians who have the misfortune to be born in homes owing allegiance to faiths other than theirs. Golwalkar once went so far as to say that "in this land Hindus have been the owners, Parsis and Jews the guests, and Muslims and Christians the dacoits. Then do all these have the same right over the country?"

Golwalkar disliked Indian Christians, and positively detested Indian Muslims. He saw them as a fifth column always and invariably working against the interests of the Motherland. Towards the end of Bunch of Thoughts occurs this very chilling passage: "[W]hatever we believed in, the Muslim was wholly hostile to it. If we worship in the temple, he would desecrate it.... If we worship cow, he would like to eat it. If we glorify woman as a symbol of sacred motherhood, he would like to molest her. He was tooth and nail opposed to our way of life in all aspects—religious, cultural, social etc. He had imbibed that hostility to the very core."

This demonising of the Muslims had a political purpose. In the 1950s, and again in the 1960s, Golwalkar promoted a campaign to protect the cow, which he hoped would create a unified Hindu votebank; this naturally opposed to those Muslims who "like to eat cow while we worship it". Then, a decade after his death, the same themes and oppositions were resurrected via the dispute over the Babri Masjid. This dispute allowed Golwalkar's followers to succeed where he himself had failed. The campaign to construct a Ram temple brought together a large number of believers and bigots spread across the country, these by no means representing the majority of the Hindu public opinion, but still large enough to provoke a series of communal riots (in which, inevitably, the main victims were Muslims), and to bring the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power in many states and, eventually, at the Centre.

One reason that Hindutva has been so successful is that it speaks in different voices. Mr Vajpayee can be trotted out to calm the liberals; Mr Advani to appeal to the hardliners. (Now, with Mr Vajpayee's retirement from active politics, Mr Advani has recast himself as the benign face while Narendra Modi has taken over as the unsmiling fanatic). The BJP can distance itself from the RSS when it suits them, but at other times can claim to be tied by an umbilical cord to it. The RSS in turn can opportunistically own or disown the trishul-waving goondas of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Bajrang Dal.

Back in 1968, the scholar-statesman C. Rajagopalachari observed that the Jana Sangh (the predecessor of today's BJP) was a party which "has quite a few good leaders". Then he added: "What is needed however is a broadmindedness that not just practices toleration but looks upon Mussalmans, Christians, Parsis and others as politically and culturally as good as Hindus." Forty years later, Indians still wait for that broadening of Hindutva minds. Perhaps the wait has been in vain. For, in its origins and core beliefs, the Sangh parivar is motivated by values and ideals that are antithetical to those of modern, secular, liberal democracy.

I forget who it was who called Atal Behari Vajpayee a mukhauta, a mere mask. Some younger leaders of the BJP have followed him in concealing a chauvinistic hard-core underneath an apparently modernist, cosmopolitan exterior.As chief minister of Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje has cultivated technocrats and multinational executives; but in the election that won her the job, she publicly supported the distribution of trishuls by that most bigoted of Hindu bigots, Praveen Togadia (don't rule out, either, similarly cynical tactics when elections in Rajasthan next come around). The most ardent defender of Narendra Modi's indefensible conduct during the pogrom against Muslims in Gujarat was the urbane, cricket-loving lawyer, Arun Jaitley. To cultivate the urban voter during the recent assembly elections in Karnataka, the BJP omitted any mention in their manifesto of their long-standing desire to convert a multi-faith shrine in the hills of Chikmagalur into an exclusively Hindu temple. That was merely a mask, however; their real sentiments and prejudices were revealed by the fact that not one of the 224 BJP candidates was a Muslim.

Some commentators use the term 'Hindu nationalists' to characterise the members and leaders of the Sangh parivar. It is a label that we must reject. How can they be called 'nationalists' when they would withhold full citizenship from those Indians who are Muslims or Christians or Parsis or atheists? One major Hindutva ideologue, Ashok Singhal, has long argued that India should emulate Pakistan by denying the top jobs to the minorities and by making them vote in separate electorates. The Hinduvta cadres take this kind of thinking to the streets, as in their notorious slogan, shouted during communal riots, of Pakistan ya Kabristan (Pakistan or the graveyard).

In fact, the Hindutvawadis treat as enemies even those Hindus, such as myself, who do not subscribe to their vision of what makes a true or faithful Indian. (My Inbox is filled with the most vicious abuse from RSS types. A sample: "Cowards like you shd get lost from India too. And take your crappy book with you- to wipe your dirty ass." And another: "You are busy r[e]ading literature glorifying Mr. Nehru and engaged with thoughts how to please and serve the shameless muslims of India whose forefathers have had br[u]talized the natives of India the hindus for about eight hund[r]ed years or how to please the British so that you can retain your job or m[i]grate either England or America and work there as a coolie.")

For all their talk of the past and future greatness of India, the philosophy of Hindutva is, in fact, a form of petty and at times vindictive chauvinism.

The Kannada writer, U.R. Ananthamurthy, adds an interesting caveat to this argument. He says that we should not call the Sangh parivar the 'saffron brigade' either. For, saffron is a beautiful colour, the colour of wisdom and renunciation, with so many rich resonances in our myths and our history. Why should we then cede it to the hard, humourless men on the right? Let them not usurp the lovely colour 'saffron', nor indeed, the inclusive term 'nationalist'. The correct characterisation of the ideology of the Sangh parivar, therefore, is 'Hindu chauvinist'.

That the politics of the Sangh parivar is exclusive and divisive has been demonstrated in the hundreds of reports published by civil liberties groups, extending over four decades and covering at least a dozen states, that document their hand in communal riots, big and small. Although they work within the Indian Constitution, they are, in effect, as opposed to its underlying ideals as are the Naxalites.

The real hate figure for the Sangh parivar is the Muslim. But, as my late teacher, the historian Dharma Kumar, once pointed out, they actually secretly admire and even wish to emulate their historic enemies. What the BJP wanted for India, she said, was to construct "an Islamic State—for Hindus". In medieval Muslim states, there was a category known as dhimmi, consisting of Jews and Christians who, as people of the book, were treated somewhat more leniently than the kaffirs, the unbelievers.The dhimmi were barred from the top positions in the state and in the army. However, so long as they paid their taxes and did not challenge the ruler, they could live in peace and security. The kaffirs, on the other hand, were seen always and invariably as adversaries. In the same manner, if the RSS were to get its way, the Muslims and Christians in modern India would live undisturbed, so long as they acknowledged their theological and political inferiority to the dominant Hindus. But if they sought equal rights of citizenship, they would be punished as the kaffirs had once been.

To be fair, there are also other kinds of religious fundamentalisms lurking around in India. Some Christian and Muslim groups in India are as convinced of their theological superiority, as sure of their victory at the altar of history as any bigot of the Sangh parivar. The hold of the Muslim orthodoxy over the community is so strong that even liberal Muslim intellectuals are cowed down by them. As a Hindu, I do not need to refer to any religious text to attack Untouchability—I can merely point out that it is an inhuman practice impermissible in a civilised society. Regardless of what the Shastras might or might not say on the subject, the fact that the Indian Constitution abolishes Untouchability is good enough for me. But a Muslim asking for equal rights for women finds it far more difficult to argue from first principles. He takes refuge instead in one or the other verse from the Quran, read or interpreted in a way most congenial to his argument. He tends to suppress or ignore the contrary evidence in other verses or sections.

There is, indeed, a reassertion of religious orthodoxy in all faiths in modern India—among Muslims and Christians as well as Sikhs and Hindus (and even, as it happens, among Jains). It is the illiberal tendencies in all these religions that, at the present juncture, are in the ascendant. The mullahs who abuse Sania Mirza or Taslima Nasreen, and the Sikh hardliners who terrorise the Dera Sacha Sauda, are also wholly opposed to the spirit of the Indian Constitution. But simply by virtue of numbers—Hindus are, after all, more than 80 per cent of India's population—and their much wider political influence, Hindu bigotry is indisputably the most dangerous of them all.

The political history of the modern world can be written in terms of a three-way contest. On the left, there are varieties of socialist or communist extremism. On the right, there are varieties of national or religious fanaticism. Placed in the middle are the forces of liberal, constitutional democracy. When the centre is fragile, as in Russia in 1917 or in Germany in 1933, one or the other form of extremism will triumph. When the centre is resolute, as in India in 1948, liberal democracy can consolidate itself.

Indians less than 70 years of age—that is to say, 98 Indians out of 100—are insufficiently aware of, and possibly insufficiently grateful to, the great democracts and patriots who, back in the late 1940s, successfully stood their ground against the challenges of revolutionary communism and religious fundamentalism. Nehru, Patel, Ambedkar, Rajagopalachari and others, working together, made sure that the centre held, that the princely states were integrated, that the refugees were resettled, that the Hindu extremists and the Communist insurrectionists were tamed and conquered. They united a diverse and fragmented country, and then gave it a democratic, plural, federal and republican Constitution.

Who, now, are the Indians who shall hold the centre against the challenges from left and right? Here lies a fundamental difference between the India of 1948 and the India of 2008.Then, the government was run by men and women of proven intelligence and integrity, who were deeply committed to the values and procedures of democracy, and wholly aware of the threats posed to these values and procedures by men such as M.S. Golwalkar and B.T. Ranadive. Now, the Government of India is run by men and women of limited intelligence and dubious integrity, who know little about and care less for the ideals on which the Republic was founded. (As the late Pramod Mahajan once candidly confessed, the first time most Members of Parliament see the Indian Constitution is when, after being elected, they are made to take an oath on it.)

The current state of Indian politics is exemplified above all by the state of the Indian National Congress, which was once the vehicle of a great, countrywide freedom struggle, but is now merely a vehicle for the ambitions of a single family. I am just about old enough to remember a Congress party which had vigorous district and state units, who chose their leaders regardless of the wishes of the High Commmand in New Delhi. I can remember, too, a Congress whose leaders were genuinely committed to inter-faith harmony, and deeply concerned with mitigating social inequalities. But then, in the 1970s, Mrs Indira Gandhi destroyed the Congress organisation. Her successors have since rid the party of any vestiges of liberal or progressive thought. The terms that came to mind in characterising an earlier generation of Congress leaders were: patriotic, efficient, social democratic, incorruptible. The terms that come to mind now are: selfish, nepotistic, sycophantic, on the make.

However, the decline and degradation of the Congress is symptomatic of the decline and degradation of public life in general. Other, lesser parties have taken inspiration—if that is the word!—from the Congress, and likewise converted their parties into family firms. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam once stood for social reform; now, it exists only in order that M.K. Stalin becomes the next chief minister of Tamil Nadu. The Shiv Sena was once the party of Maharashtrian pride; now, it hopes only that the son of its founder will one day become chief minister of the state (or, better still, the remote control directing a puppet chief minister). The Janata Dal in Karnataka once claimed, with some reason, to stand for the interests of the farmers against those of the city-dwellers; now, its main purpose is to ensure that two sons of a former farmer named H.D. Deve Gowda themselves become the most privileged of city-dwellers.

In the year 1948 or thereabouts, it was not just the politicians who were patriotic and incorruptible—the civil servants were, too. Without the work, for example, of Sardar Tarlok Singh in resettling refugees, or of Sukumar Sen in organising our first, definitive general elections, or of V.P. Menon in integrating the princely states, there would be no India, still less a united and democratic one. The example they set was carried forward down the line—much as the example set by Nehru and company was deepened by provincial Congress leaders, most of whom were likewise capable and efficient. Now, however, the unelected officials at times exceed the elected politicians in the scale and ambition of their corruption.

In 1948, the men and women who ran the Indian administration were patriotic and very focused indeed. In 2008, the centre is corrupt, corroded. Fortunately, the sense of Indian nationhood cultivated over six decades has struck deep roots. We are not about to become a Hindu Rashtra. Nor are we about to become a one-party Maoist state either. It is striking that the Naxalites have tried hard, but wholly without success, to impose a poll boycott in areas where they have influence.The habit, once acquired, of voting freely to choose one's representatives is impossible to shake off.

We still remain a single nation. We continue to hold regular elections, permit the free movement of citizens, and encourage a moderately free press (of which more anon). But with a corrupt and corroded centre, Indian democracy will not be able to win an authoritative victory over extremists of left or right. Since the tribals will continue to be dispossessed and discriminated against, the Naxalites will still find a sympathetic voice among them. Since the Congress party will continue to be staffed by time-servers and sycophants, who shall veer between acting as a 'Hindutva B team' and cultivating the most reactionary sections of the Muslim leadership, the BJP will still win many state elections and the odd general election.

The utter paralysis of the centre is manifested also in its inability to take on chauvinisms of other kinds. Raj Thackeray should long ago have been put in jail for his incitements to hatred and violence. The pusillanimity of the democratic centre in the face of petty chauvinism acts only to embolden the more dangerous extremists, whose incitements to hatred and violence are conducted in the name of Hindutva and Maoism.

The decline in the quality and capability of our politicians and public officials has been compensated, in part, by the rise of a vigorous and very active civil society. Back in the 1950s, there were a few dedicated social workers working in the Gandhian tradition, such as Thakurdas Bang, Baba Amte and Kamaladevi Chattopadhyay. However, hopes for reform and uplift then mostly devolved on the state. The Government of India was expected to provide education and healthcare for all its citizens, and dignified employment for the able-bodied adults among them.

By the early 1970s, it became clear that the state was unwilling or unable to take on these larger responsbilities. In 1972, a Gujarati woman named Ela Bhatt started the Self-Employed Women's Association. The next year a Garhwali man of peasant extraction who shared her surname started the Chipko movement. These two Bhatts, Ela and Chandi Prasad, were in the vanguard of a much larger wave of voluntary action on behalf of the poor and marginalised of India. Through the 1970s and 1980s, hundreds of citizens' groups came into being, which sought to open schools and clinics for the rural and urban poor; to run cooperatives for farmers and craftspeople; to plant trees, revive village tanks and otherwise restore a ravaged environment.

The proliferation of non-governmental organisations has been satirised in a series of abbreviations: PINGO (for Personally-Inclined NGO), GONGO (for Government-Organised NGO), FONGO (for Foreign-Oriented ngo), etc. Admittedly, many NGOs are mere paper entities; many others, vehicles for personal aggrandisement or enrichment. That said, the flowering of so many good, committed, focused civil society initiatives has contributed immensely to the nurturing of a democratic ethos in India. The space vacated by the State has at least been partially filled by individuals and groups motivated by a fine kind of disinterested idealism.

Ispoke earlier of a brutal side to globalisation, as manifest in the intensification of mining operations. But there is also a benign side to globalisation, this manifest most dramatically in the city I live in. In the tribal districts of Orissa, the opening of the Indian economy has encouraged short-term speculation via forms of resource extraction that are socially damaging as well as environmentally polluting. On the other hand, in cities with a skilled workforce, such as Bangalore or Hyderabad, economic liberalisation has generated huge amounts of wealth through the provision of high-end, high-value services such as software and biotechnology.The proceeds from mining go to a privileged few; the proceeds from service industries to very many more. At the same time, the software boom has generated a new wave of philanthropy, with the promoters of companies like Wipro and Infosys contributing handsomely to ngos working on enhancing the quality and reach of education and healthcare in rural India.

For too long were the creative energies of the Indian entrepreneur suppressed by what C. Rajagopalachari memorably called the 'license-permit-quota-raj'. In the early years of Independence, Indian industry perhaps needed protection—it certainly demanded it. The Bombay Plan of 1944, endorsed by G.D. Birla and J.R.D. Tata among others, asked both for curbs on foreign investment and for an enhanced role for the state. India had once been colonised by a Western multinational corporation—having, at last, gained its freedom, it intended to keep it. At the same time, Indian capitalists lacked the capital and knowhow to invest in sectors such as steel, power, roads and ports. They were thus content to focus on the manufacture and distribution of consumer goods, leaving capital goods and infrastructure to the State.

The time to liberalise the Indian economy was the late 1960s. A manufacturing base was now in place; so, too, was a steady supply of skilled technicians and engineering graduates. However, for reasons of political expediency, the prime minister of the day, Mrs Indira Gandhi, chose instead to strengthen the stranglehold of the State over the economy. Key sectors such as coal and petroleum were nationalised. The licensing procedure in sectors still open to the private sector was at once made more arbitrary and more stringent. Those industrialists who knew how to massage political egos or hand over bribes had an advantage over those who trusted their entrepreneurial abilities alone.

The 1970s was verily the lost decade, in a political as well as economic sense (this was also the decade of the Emergency, of the nurturing of committed judges and bureaucrats, and, on the non-Congress side, of the elevation of street protest over the procedures of democratic deliberation). Government policies became somewhat more business-friendly in the 1980s; and, at last, more market-friendly in the 1990s. The surge in economic growth is a direct consequence of this greater (if also greatly belated) trust placed in the capabilities of the Indian entrepreneur. Along with software, other sectors such as telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, motorised vehicles and air transport have also made impressive strides in recent years.

The growth in investment and productive capacity has generated many jobs, and, through them, a substantial and rapidly expanding middle class. The term 'middle class' is very elastic, of course. Defined more capaciously, it may embrace some 200 million Indians; defined more rigorously, perhaps half that number. At any rate, there has been a distinct embourgeoisement of Indian society, with millions of previously working-class families now qualifying as belonging to the middle class.

There remain, of course, very many more Indians who still count as poor. Here, again, the estimates vary widely—roughly 300 million if one goes by official figures, perhaps twice that number if one adopts more stringent criteria. There are thus two nations, living side by side. In the words of Amartya Sen, the first India lives a lot like California, the second (and more populous) India a lot like sub-Saharan Africa.

Marxist ideologues claim that one is the consequence of the other—that many Indians have recently become prosperous only because many other Indians are still poor. This is a gross simplification.Economic growth is not a zero-sum game. A more nuanced and more accurate way to understand these difference in income and status is to interpret them through the lens of culture and geography. A certain kind of Indian, with a certain kind of social or caste background, living in a certain kind of concentrated settlement, and in certain states of India, is likely to be better off than Indians of other social backgrounds and other residential locations in other states. As the economist T.N. Srinivasan writes:
"if one is poor in India...one is more likely to live in rural areas, more likely to be a member of the Scheduled Caste or Tribe or other discriminated group, more likely to be malnourished, sick and in poor health, more likely to be illiterate or poorly educated and with low skills, more likely to live in certain states (such as...Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, and also Orissa) than in others..."
One consequence of market-led economic growth shall be to accentuate these differences. Since upper castes tend to have higher levels of education and greater mobility across India, they are likely to garner the most profitable jobs. Since well developed regions have a reputation for being rich in skills and open to innovation, the bigger investors will flock to them. Since cities have more resources and better infrastructure as compared to small towns and villages, they will continue to get the bulk of new investment. In this manner, the already substantial gap between Bangalore and rural Karnataka, South India and eastern India, city-dwellers and country-folk will grow even larger.

These inequalities of income and status are made more striking by their magnification by the media, with its breathless worship of wealth and success. A leading newspaper routinely speaks of the India that wants to march ahead allegedly being kept back by the other India that refuses to come with them. There is a kind of Social Darwinism abroad, where the new rich promiscuously parade their wealth, while insinuating that the poor are poor because they deserve to be poor. The exhibitionism of the rich has reached its apogee in the construction of a 27-storey building in downtown Bombay. Costing two billion dollars, and covering 4,00,000 square feet of interior space, this structure is meant for the exclusive use of a single nuclear family.

Rising inequalities have historically been part of the growth process all across the world. In the early phase of industrialisation, the gap between the rich and the poor widens. Over time, however, these inequalities tend to come down. That, at any rate, was the experience of Europe and America. Will later industrialisers such as China and India also follow the same route? I cannot speak for China, but in India one cannot be unduly optimistic. One reason that inequalities tapered off in the West was because their governments worked effectively towards providing equality of opportunity. The contributions of the European Welfare State in providing decent healthcare and education to its citizens are well known. Less acknowledged, perhaps, is the part played in levelling inequalities by the outstanding system of public schools and publicly funded universities in the United States.

The situation in India is all too different. The inequalities in access to good education and healthcare are immense. The school my children go to in Bangalore is world-class; the school run by the state a few yards down the road is worse than third-rate. I can avail of top-quality healthcare, by paying (admittedly, through my nose); my house help must go to the local quack instead. To address these disparities, outstanding work has been done by social workers in the fields of primary education and healthcare.Brave, selfless, utterly patriotic Indians have worked 24 by 7 to get slum and low caste children into school, and to provide them protection against dangerous diseases. Ultimately, though, the scale of the problem is so immense that their work, heroic as it is, can only very partially make up for the apathy and corruption of the state. For only a properly functioning state can equalise the life chances of all Indians, whether men or women, high, middle or low caste, Hindus or Muslims, northerners or southerners.

In the West, the bulk of the population resides in the middle class. Will this ever happen in India? Can the vast majority of Indians come to enjoy the creature comforts of the average Outlook reader? The prospect is uncertain, for two reasons. The first has been alluded to, the palpable failure of the State to provide education and healthcare to all its citizens. The second is the environmental constraint. Eighty years ago, Mahatma Gandhi had pointed to the unsustainability, at the global level, of the Western model of economic development. "God forbid," he wrote, "that India should ever take to industrialisation after the manner of the West. The economic imperialism of a single tiny island kingdom (England) is today keeping the world in chains. If an entire nation of 300 million took to similar economic exploitation, it would strip the world bare like locusts."

These words come from an article published in the journal Young India in December 1928. Two years earlier, Gandhi had claimed that to "make India like England and America is to find some other races and places of the earth for exploitation". As it appeared that the Western nations had already "divided all the known races outside Europe for exploitation and there are no new worlds to discover", he pointedly asked: "What can be the fate of India trying to ape the West?"

With India, China too is trying to ape the West, attempting to create a mass consumer society whose members can all drive their own cars, live in their own air-conditioned homes, eat in fancy restaurants and travel to the ends of the earth for their family holidays. Will these Chinese and Indian consumers collectively strip the world bare like locusts? Between them, they have set off a new scramble for Africa, stripping or at least strip-mining that unhappy continent to fuel their ever-growing appetite for resources. Between them, they have also consolidated the control of a brutal military junta in Myanmar, putting their own selfish interests in minerals and energy well ahead of the elementary human rights of the Burmese people.

The environmental challenges posed by the economic rise of China and India are of three kinds. First, at the global level, is the threat of rapid and irreversible climate change due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases. As the early industrialisers, the West were the original culprits here; that said, the two Asian giants are rapidly making up for lost time. Second, at the regional or continental level, are the environmental (and social) costs of the ecological footprint of China and India outside their own national borders. The West has for some time worked to relocate its dirty industries to the Third World, passing on the costs to the poor and the powerless. In the same manner, the externalities of Indian and Chinese consumers will be increasingly borne by the people of other lands.

The third challenge is that posed to the environments of these countries themselves. Chinese cities have the highest rates of air pollution in the world. Rivers such as the Ganga and the Jamuna are effectively, dead. India and China both have unacceptably high levels of air and water pollution.They have also witnessed, in recent years, the large-scale depletion of groundwater aquifers, the loss of biodiversity, the destruction of forests and the decimation of fish-stocks.

There are two stock responses to the environmental crisis in India. One is to hope, or pray, that in time and with greater prosperity, we will have the money to clean up our surroundings. The other is to see ecological degradation as symptomatic of the larger failure of modernity itself. The first response is characteristic of the consuming classes; the second, that of the agrarian romantic, who believes that India must live only in its villages, that, indeed, the majority of Indians are happy enough to live on in their villages. Both responses are deeply wrong-headed. Contra the rural romantic, life among the peasantry can be nasty, brutish and short. Most Indian villagers would cheerfully exchange a mud hut for a solid stone house, well water for clean piped water, kerosene lanterns for steady and bright tube lights. The living standards of the majority of Indians can and must be enchanced. At the same time, the living standards of the most wealthy Indians must be moderated.

The demands placed on the earth by the poor and excluded are disproportionately low; the demands placed by those with cars and credit cards excessively high. A rational, long-range, sustainable strategy of development has to find ways of enhancing the resource access of those at the bottom of the heap while checking the resource demands of those in positions of power and advantage. This strategy has then to be broken down into specific sectors; so that, for example, we can design suitable policies for transport, energy, housing, forests, pollution control, water management, and so on.

Once, the media played a catalytic role in promoting environmental awareness. Through the 1970s and 1980s, journalists like Anil Agarwal, Darryl D'Monte, Usha Rai and Nagesh Hegde wrote extensively on issues such as deforestation, species loss, water abuse and sustainable energy policies. They drew in part on their own field investigations, and in part on the work of a whole array of Indian ecological scientists. However, when liberalisation got underway and the economy began to show higher rates of growth, there was an anti-environmental backlash. Now, environmentalists began to be portrayed as party-poopers, as spoilers who did not want India to join the ranks of the Great Powers of the world. In response to these criticisms, and sensible also of the pressures of commercial advertisers, most newspapers laid off their environment correspondents or perhaps sent them to cover the stockmarket instead. Anil Agarwal once wrote of the environmental debate as being "beyond pretty trees and tigers". In India, at least, the state and fate of the natural environment is intimately linked to livelihood and survival. Without sustainable irrigation practices, Indian farmers cannot assure themselves a long-term future. Without decent public transport and energy conservation, India will be beholden to the whims and fancies of countries with more oil than ourselves. Without clean air and safe drinking water, our children will be far less healthy than we want them to be.

However, in the eyes of the new, excessively market-friendly media, the environment is only about pretty trees and tigers. They wish their readers to have their cake and eat it too; to live resource-intensive lifestyles and yet be able to glory in the beauties of the wild. They cannot, or will not, see that the one imperils the other. Nor will they acknowledge the persistence and significance of more local, less glamorous environmental issues—such as the state of the air and the water, the conservation of energy, the provision of safe and affordable housing.These issues affect the lives of hundreds of millions of Indians. However, by succumbing so readily to the cult of wealth and celebrity, the media can find no space for them.

The market is good at producing consumer goods efficiently and cheaply, and at distributing them quickly and widely. But the market cannot provide fair access to education or healthcare. And the operations of the market can actually promote environmental destruction. It makes perfect sense for a privately owned firm to pollute the environment, so long as the costs of this pollution are being borne by someone else.

The value of clean air and species diversity cannot be assessed in monetary terms. Energy and transport policies that are suitable from the point of view of a city, a state, or a nation, cannot be designed by a single private enterprise. A sustainable path of economic development thus depends crucially on a far-seeing state as well as a vigilant media. Tragically, we in India have neither.

For very many years, the Indian experiment with nationhood and democracy was written off by very many Western observers. We were informed, through a series of premature obituaries, that our country was too diverse to be a single nation, and too poor to be run on democratic lines. In every secessionist movement was seen the prospect of balkanisation, in every death of a prime minister the imminent threat of military takeover. To be sure, the nation was scarcely stable or secure—it lurched, as it were, from crisis to crisis, from riot to assassination to border conflict to open war. But somehow, India survived; somehow (and despite the Emergency) it even stayed democratic.

When did these prophecies stop coming? When, finally, did foreign scholars and travellers concede that the Republic of India was here to stay? I think it was the year 1997 that marked the end of Western scepticism about the fate of India. That year, this unnatural nation and unlikely democracy officially marked five full decades of its existence.

Now, of course, we hear a different kind of tune being sung. We are told, not that we are going down the tube, but that, with China, we are one of the rising superpowers of the century. This newer, more hopeful kind of prophecy is eagerly seized upon by two kinds of Indians: those who enjoy political power, and those who own vast amounts of wealth. Both see the bestowing of superstardom as not very much more than their due.

This new, self-confident, even arrogant India is on display most prominently in two cities—the city I live in, and the city I visit most frequently for research. New Delhi is, for me, the place where the archives are; but for most others, it is the political capital of India. Bangalore is, from my narrow perspective, merely my home town, but in the eyes of the world it is the centre of a rising Asian giant's showpiece software industry. Not unexpectedly, the power elite of both cities are marked by a very high sense of self-regard. In the case of the Delhi politicians, this self-praise is essentially unearned. If India is now given respect in the councils of the world for its successes in nurturing nationhood amidst diversity, and democracy despite illiteracy, the credit should really go to the first generation of political leaders. The netas who now occupy the largest offices of the Government of India are, in this connection, merely free riders.

The self-esteem of the new generation of Indian entrepreneurs is based on their own hard work and achievement. Given an opening, they have seized it; by building world-class companies on Indian soil with Indian capital and Indian workers. But here, too, there is a tendency for self-regard to shade into hubris.Having so successfully nurtured a private company, they see no reason why they cannot be part of a very successful nation-state, without quite understanding that the leap from one to the other involves agencies and processes of which they sometimes have little understanding and over which they often have no control.

The imagination of the Indian elite is constructed around these twin poles: one political, the other economic. But to fly from Bangalore to Delhi, and back, is literally to fly over a serious challenge to the emergence of India as a global superpower. Obscured from the bird in the sky is the Naxalite insurgency in central India, which covers at least one-tenth of the country's surface, and which has at its core the sufferings and discontent of tens of millions of tribal people.

For the middle class, the threat from the left is wholly hidden. They do not see or confront it in their daily lives. They can go to work or college or shop or play without ever seeing a single Naxalite, or a single adivasi either. On the other hand, they do know of the threat from the right. Yet, they tend to disregard it. Some middle-class Indians are converted Hindutvawadis anyway. Many others naively hope that the mask will in time become the real face, and that with economic modernisation the BJP will be able to successfully distance itself from the RSS. In the case of the dumbing down of the media, the middle class has been an active collaborator. So, too, with the degradation of the environment, whose links to their own lifestyles are scarcely understood or commented upon. The disparity between the rich and the poor is too obvious to be ignored; still, the hope is that with an even freer play of market forces, those presently at the bottom of the pyramid will come to occupy its middle ranks. The one challenge to superstardom that is most clear to the consuming classes is the corruption and corrosion of the democratic centre. They are witness to the shocking amoralism of our political class; and subject in their daily lives to its consequences. The market, and their own ability to pay, can in part insulate them from the breakdown of public services. They can trust the courier service instead of the post office, get themselves a mobile phone and forget about the land line, and have a stand-by generator in case the lights suddenly go on the blink. And yet, every now and then, they are served a powerful reminder that they remain at the mercy of the malfunctioning state. Time is money, never more so when one is caught for hours in a traffic jam caused either by the precedence given to a politician's convoy or by the fact that the surface of a major road has suddenly caved in.

In the short term, at any rate, the Indian political class can only get more corrupt, and the Indian State more inefficient. Multi-party coalition governments are already the norm in the centre; they will become increasingly common in the states. As the price of joining a coalition led by one of the major parties, the smaller formations demand the most lucrative ministries. When, in my home state of Karnataka, a coalition government fell within a week of its taking office, the press offered the neutral comment that the dispute was over the allotment of the mining and urban development ministries. In the current fragmented political scenario, short-term rent-seeking will take precedence over long-term policy formulation.This shall be true of governments in the states, as well as at the centre.

The challenge of the Naxalites; the insidious presence of the Hindutvawadis; the degradation of the once liberal and upright centre; the increasing gap between the rich and the poor; the trivialisation of the media; the unsustainability, in an environmental sense, of present patterns of resource consumption; the instability and policy incoherence caused by multi-party coalition governments—these are the seven reasons why India will not become a superpower. To this, so to say objective judgement of the historian, I will now add the subjective desires of a citizen—which is that India should not even attempt to become a superpower.

In my view, International Relations cannot be made analogous to a competitive examination. The question is not who comes first or second or third, whether judged in terms of Gross National Product, number of billionaires in the Forbes or Fortune lists, number of Olympic gold medals won, size of largest aircraft carrier operated, or power of most deadly nuclear weapon owned. This kind of ranking, to which regrettably the Indian elite and especially the English language media is increasingly prone, may be caricatured as the "My penis is bigger than yours" way of thinking about one's place in the world.

We should judge ourselves not against the achievements, real or imagined, of other countries, but in the light of our own norms and ideals. The jurist Nani Palkhivala once remarked that "India is a third-class democracy with a first-class Constitution". Both parts of the equation remain as he stated them. In conception, we are a unique nation, unique for refusing to reduce Indian-ness to a single language, religion or ideology, unique in affirming and celebrating the staggering diversity found within our borders (and beyond them). The Constitution defied the Laws of Manu by giving women equal rights with men. It violated thousands of years of social practice by abolishing untouchability. It refused, despite the provocations of bigots of both religions, to make India into a 'Hindu Pakistan'. And it challenged the evidence and logic of history by giving even unlettered adults the power to choose those who would represent them in legislatures and in Parliament.

That is the ideal, still first-class; and then there is the practice, mostly third-class. The equality of women and low castes is denied in homes and villages across the land. There are chauvinists who privilege one language, setting upon those Indians who choose to speak another. There are religious fundamentalists who likewise harass and persecute those whose Gods are different from theirs. There are allegedly 'democratic' politicians who abuse their oath of office and work only to enrich themselves; as well as self-described 'revolutionaries' who seek to settle arguments by the point of the gun.

It was, I think, Jawaharlal Nehru who pointed out that India was home to all that is truly disgusting as well as truly noble in the human condition. The nobility and the disgustingness were abundantly on display in his day, as they are in ours. Contemporary India is home to pluralists and democrats as well as to fanatics and sectarians; to selfless social workers as well as to greedy politicians; to honest and upright officials as well as to officials who are time-servers; to capitalists who distribute their wealth quietly and widely as well as to those who seek only to publicly and provocatively display it. To redeem the Republic, to bring the practice of Indian democracy closer to the ideals of Indian nationhood, is to valorise and support the first kind of Indian rather than the second.

Six months after the demolition of the Babri Masjid, my teacher, Dharma Kumar, wrote a short essay entitled 'India as a Nation-State'.Here, she took issue both with left-wing activists who thought the Indian State too strong, and with Hindu chauvinists who thought it too weak. One saw the State as an "oppressive monopolist of power"; the other believed it lacked the will and the strength to stand up to the West or put its own minorities in their place. One seemed to welcome the possible disintegration of the country, in the belief that "twenty countries, say, instead of one would leave the people of India less oppressed"; the other was "terrified of the break-up of India", thinking that "India has still not recovered from partition and any further secessions would lead to...balkanisation.... This line of analysis leads to the perception of Muslims as the cause of national weakness".

Dharma Kumar rejected both positions by affirming the inclusive and democratic idea of India upheld by its founders. As she put it, "instead of deploring our lack of homogeneity we should glory in it. Instead of regarding India as a failed or deformed nation-state, we should see it as a new political form, perhaps even as a forerunner of the future. We are in some ways where Europe wants to be, but we have a tremendous job of reform, of repairing our damaged institutions, and of inventing new ones."

I have myself been fortunate in being witness to the work of many Indians who have sought to repair or redeem our institutions. I think of groups like the Association of Democratic Reform, which succeeded in making the criminal records and assets of politicians public; or like Pratham, which works closely with the state governments in improving our public education system. I think of Ela Bhatt and Chandi Prasad Bhatt, respectively the grandmother and grandfather of modern social activism in India. Elabehn has challenged the State to be more alert to the rights of working women; Bhattji has forced it to move towards a more community-oriented (and ecologically-sensitive) forest policy. I think of the scientists Obaid Siddiqui and Padmanabhan Balaram, who have nurtured world-class, non-hierarchical research laboratories in a funds-scarce, anti-intellectual and deeply inegalitarian society. I think, too, of my exact contemporaries and fellow PhDs, Jean Dreze and Mihir Shah, who could have enjoyed comfortable careers as teachers and writers, but who chose instead to become full-time activists, and bent their expertise to making the Government of India more responsive to the lives and interests of the rural poor. And, since I have myself contributed in this essay to the growing cynicism about public officials, I think, finally, of the outstanding Governor of West Bengal, Gopalkrishna Gandhi, whose understanding of and empathy with the citizens of his state has been, in all senses of the word, exemplary.

The groups and individuals mentioned in the preceding paragraph are, of course, merely illustrative. The work that they and others like them undertake is rarely reported in the mainstream media. For the task of reform, of incremental and evolutionary change, is as unglamorous as it is necessary. It is far easier to speak of a wholesale, structural transformation to identify one single variable that, if acted upon, will take India up and into the straight high road to superstardom.Among the one-size-fits-all solutions on offer are those promoted by the Naxalites, whose project is to make India into a purer, that is to say more regimented, version of Communist China; by the Sangh parivar, which assures the Hindus that if they rediscover their religion they will (again) rule the world; and by the free-market ideologues, who seek to make India into an even more hedonistic version of the United States of America.

To follow the Naxalites is to plunge India into decades of civil war; to follow the Hindu right is to persecute and demonise large numbers of one's own countrymen; to follow the market fundamentalists is to intensify the divisions between the consuming and the surviving classes (and to destroy the global environment in the process). Rather than nurture or act upon these utopian fantasies, the Indian patriot must focus instead on the tasks of gradual and piecemeal reform. We need to repair, one by one, the institutions that have safeguarded our unity amidst diversity, and to forge, also one by one, the new institutions that can help us meet the fresh challenges of the 21st century. It will be hard, patient, slow work—that is to say, the only kind of work that is ever worth it.

Ramachandra Guha was recently named as one of the 100 most influential public intellectuals in the world. He is the author of India After Gandhi: The History of the World's Largest Democracy.


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Monday 23 June 2008

Academic standards: the shame of our lap-dancing universities

Overstretched and underfunded, they vie for media attention and quality loses out

Libby Purves

Let's be clear: what follows is only journalism. There will be no lies, nor crazy guesses or twisted evidence, but all the same it is daily journalism. You can take it or leave it, contradict it flatly or use it as a springboard for other thoughts: it is not an academic treatise based on lengthy research. There isn't room on the page, or in your morning.

This is a useful distinction to keep in mind when studying recent straws in the wind, for academic rigour and academic integrity are under fire as never before before in any free and uncensored society. Commercial pressures and media vanity are eroding the serene old castle and a new generation risks failing to understand what scholarship is.

I understood it once, which is why I gave it up in favour of a lesser - but more amusing - career as a mere interpreter and communicator of daily events and the results of real scholarship. Contemplating an academic career after university, I quailed at the solitary, low-paid scrupulousness, the thickets of multiple footnotes, silent hours in lonely libraries and scratchy disputatiousness. I understood that while scholarship is a marvellous thing, I was not fit for it. Better to hop around under the table like a sparrow picking up interesting crumbs, sometimes trying to help proper experts put their theses to a wider public. But I have always known that the scholar's world is not journalism.

The world has rolled on. Universities, underfunded and overstretched, feel forced to offer alluring lap dances to the media to buff up their images. Never a day passes without some piffling press release about researchers at the University of Much-Binding having “shown” that men are different from women, or that nobody likes being burgled, or that raspberries might cure criminality. These miniature nonsenses exist to massage research funding, get Binding University's name into the papers, and get the authors on to every desperate programme and magazine page to elucidate the raspberry-and-burglars theory in three minutes or 800 words.

The trouble is that if the academic becomes a star, the pressure can dent his or her scruples. Take the case of Raj Persaud, the Mr Glib of media shrinks, at present suspended for three months by the General Medical Council for some pretty shameless plagiarism of other academics' work. He pleaded that he was in a “confused mental state” at the time of knocking off these particular works, because of the “pressure” of juggling media commitments and NHS psychiatric practice.

He had become powerful in media terms and as he once wrote himself, in one of those annoying media-shrink pieces about the character flaws of public figures they have never met: “People with elevated power become disposed to elevated levels of risk-taking. They are more mentally oriented to potential rewards and oblivious to pitfalls.”

As was he. You cannot help but be sorry for him, since by all accounts he is a good doctor and nice chap. But all the same, the GMC does us a favour by pointing out that academics should work to higher standards than hasty hacks.

Meanwhile, inside the fortress walls of academe, things are not too secure. When student fees and the abolition of the maintenance grant began in 1997, I remember consoling myself with the reflection that students would become more demanding, and would balk at having lecture rooms without enough seats, or only one hour per fortnight of small-group teaching. They would become customers rather than overgrown schoolchildren.

I was right and wrong. Right, because that feeling has grown. Wrong, because its ill-effects are threatening the passionless integrity of scholarly standards.

One by one, academics blow the whistle. They have pointed out the pressure to give first or 2:1 degrees rather than 2:2s, caused not only by anxiety over their reputation but by the litigiousness of customer-students (”Every summer is poisoned by appeals,” one says). Next we get reports that higher degrees are being awarded to lucrative overseas students who speak almost no English: the four billion a year that they bring in tempts some institutions to undue leniency .

Universities UK denies this, but reading message boards from irritable academics, confirms the impression. One in Leeds claims to have turned down an underqualified foreigner and his £8,000 because “I neither have the time nor the will to have some hapless person trying to work in my laboratory without the necessary scientific education and I got a lot of flak for that, but many do...

“The result is an utter dumbing down of the PhD standards. While PhDs at from the major UK universities may be worth something, many at ‘minor' universities are not worth anything. This is well known in the scientific world. A US-American from a good university has to work between four and seven years on his PhD and publish several papers, whereas in the UK some rich person can get the title by paying the fees and working for three years on a mickey-mouse project. Often the theses are written by the supervisors and the vivas are conducted by ‘buddies'. It is a complete disgrace.”

Others say that plagiarism from the internet is increasingly ignored for fear of argument, and that the ethnicity of (lucrative!) students may make copying acceptable. One academic journal mused innocently: “The cultural values of multilingual students are sometimes at variance with Western academic practice, in matters such as plagiarism... we should respect and make use of the students' own traditions of study.”

And on a less scholarly but equally telling matter, at Kingston University staff were recorded telling students to inflate their responses in the annual National Student Survey because “if Kingston comes down the bottom, the bottom line is that nobody is going to want to employ you”.

These disparate incidents and reports hang together worryingly. They link also to the “dodgy dossier” on the Iraq weapons, the one praised by ministers but which turned out to be mainly plagiarised - typographical errors and all - from a postgraduate thesis. Scholarship mattered little next to political advantage; the same applies often enough to “research” used to cobble up hasty government policymaking and propaganda (check out the wonderful vagueness, for instance, of the “five-a-day” campaigns).

I have no space for footnotes and full attributions. This has been journalism. But journalists have to pick up threads, tug them and see what unravels. And in this hurried, mercenary, media-driven age I do sense an unravelling of academic rigour.

Perhaps it is just beginning. Perhaps a stitch in time will stop it.

Wednesday 18 June 2008

Scarcity In An Age Of Plenty

By Joseph Stiglitz

17 June, 2008
The Guardian

Around the world, protests against soaring food and fuel prices are mounting. The poor — and even the middle classes — are seeing their incomes squeezed as the global economy enters a slowdown. Politicians want to respond to their constituents’ legitimate concerns, but do not know what to do.

In the United States, both Hillary Clinton and John McCain took the easy way out, and supported a suspension of the gasoline tax, at least for the summer. Only Barack Obama stood his ground and rejected the proposal, which would have merely increased demand for gasoline — and thereby offset the effect of the tax cut.

But if Clinton and McCain were wrong, what should be done? One cannot simply ignore the pleas of those who are suffering. In the US, real middle-class incomes have not yet recovered to the levels attained before the last recession in 1991.

When George Bush was elected, he claimed that tax cuts for the rich would cure all the economy’s ailments. The benefits of tax-cut-fuelled growth would trickle down to all — policies that have become fashionable in Europe and elsewhere, but that have failed. Tax cuts were supposed to stimulate savings, but household savings in the US have plummeted to zero. They were supposed to stimulate employment, but labour force participation is lower than in the 1990s. What growth did occur benefited only the few at the top.

Productivity grew, for a while, but it wasn’t because of Wall Street financial innovations. The financial products being created didn’t manage risk; they enhanced risk. They were so non-transparent and complex that neither Wall Street nor the ratings agencies could properly assess them. Meanwhile, the financial sector failed to create products that would help ordinary people manage the risks they faced, including the risks of home ownership. Millions of Americans will likely lose their homes and, with them, their life savings.

At the core of America’s success is technology, symbolised by Silicon Valley. The irony is that the scientists making the advances that enable technology-based growth, and the venture capital firms that finance it were not the ones reaping the biggest rewards in the heyday of the real estate bubble. These real investments are overshadowed by the games that have been absorbing most participants in financial markets.

The world needs to rethink the sources of growth. If the foundations of economic growth lie in advances in science and technology, not in speculation in real estate or financial markets, then tax systems must be realigned. Why should those who make their income by gambling in Wall Street’s casinos be taxed at a lower rate than those who earn their money in other ways? Capital gains should be taxed at least at as high a rate as ordinary income. (Such returns will, in any case, get a substantial benefit because the tax is not imposed until the gain is realised.) In addition, there should be a windfall profits tax on oil and gas companies.

Given the huge increase in inequality in most countries, higher taxes for those who have done well — to help those who have lost ground from globalisation and technological change — are in order, and could also ameliorate the strains imposed by soaring food and energy prices. Countries, like the US, with food stamp programmes, clearly need to increase the value of these subsidies in order to ensure that nutrition standards do not deteriorate. Those countries without such programmes might think about instituting them.

Two factors set off today’s crisis: the Iraq war contributed to the run-up in oil prices, including through increased instability in the Middle East, the low-cost provider of oil, while biofuels have meant that food and energy markets are increasingly integrated. Although the focus on renewable energy sources is welcome, policies that distort food supply are not. America’s subsidies for corn-based ethanol contribute more to the coffers of ethanol producers than they do to curtailing global warming. Huge agriculture subsidies in the US and the European Union have weakened agriculture in the developing world, where too little international assistance was directed at improving agriculture productivity. Development aid for agriculture has fallen from a high of 17% of total aid to just 3% today, with some international donors demanding that fertiliser subsidies be eliminated, making it even more difficult for cash-strapped farmers to compete.

Rich countries must reduce, if not eliminate, distortional agriculture and energy policies, and help those in the poorest countries improve their capacity to produce food. But this is just a start: we have treated our most precious resources — clean water and air — as if they were free. Only new patterns of consumption and production — a new economic model — can address that most fundamental resource problem.

Joseph Stiglitz is university professor at Columbia University. In 2001, he was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics. His latest book is Making Globalization Work.

copyright Project Syndicate/Institute for Human Sciences, 2006

Tuesday 17 June 2008

The Fringe Benefits Of Failure and the Importance of Imagination



Text of the Harvard University Commencement Address by the author of the Harry Potter novels delivered on June 5, 2008.

J.K. ROWLING
The first thing I would like to say is 'thank you.' Not only has Harvard given me an extraordinary honour, but the weeks of fear and nausea I've experienced at the thought of giving this commencement address have made me lose weight. A win-win situation! Now all I have to do is take deep breaths, squint at the red banners and fool myself into believing I am at the world's best-educated Harry Potter convention.

Delivering a commencement address is a great responsibility; or so I thought until I cast my mind back to my own graduation. The commencement speaker that day was the distinguished British philosopher Baroness Mary Warnock. Reflecting on her speech has helped me enormously in writing this one, because it turns out that I can't remember a single word she said. This liberating discovery enables me to proceed without any fear that I might inadvertently influence you to abandon promising careers in business, law or politics for the giddy delights of becoming a gay wizard.

You see? If all you remember in years to come is the 'gay wizard' joke, I've still come out ahead of Baroness Mary Warnock. Achievable goals: the first step towards personal improvement.

Actually, I have wracked my mind and heart for what I ought to say to you today. I have asked myself what I wish I had known at my own graduation, and what important lessons I have learned in the 21 years that has expired between that day and this.

I have come up with two answers. On this wonderful day when we are gathered together to celebrate your academic success, I have decided to talk to you about the benefits of failure. And as you stand on the threshold of what is sometimes called 'real life', I want to extol the crucial importance of imagination.

These might seem quixotic or paradoxical choices, but please bear with me.

Looking back at the 21-year-old that I was at graduation, is a slightly uncomfortable experience for the 42-year-old that she has become. Half my lifetime ago, I was striking an uneasy balance between the ambition I had for myself, and what those closest to me expected of me.

I was convinced that the only thing I wanted to do, ever, was to write novels. However, my parents, both of whom came from impoverished backgrounds and neither of whom had been to college, took the view that my overactive imagination was an amusing personal quirk that could never pay a mortgage, or secure a pension.

They had hoped that I would take a vocational degree; I wanted to study English Literature. A compromise was reached that in retrospect satisfied nobody, and I went up to study Modern Languages. Hardly had my parents' car rounded the corner at the end of the road than I ditched German and scuttled off down the Classics corridor.

I cannot remember telling my parents that I was studying Classics; they might well have found out for the first time on graduation day. Of all subjects on this planet, I think they would have been hard put to name one less useful than Greek mythology when it came to securing the keys to an executive bathroom.

I would like to make it clear, in parenthesis, that I do not blame my parents for their point of view. There is an expiry date on blaming your parents for steering you in the wrong direction; the moment you are old enough to take the wheel, responsibility lies with you. What is more, I cannot criticise my parents for hoping that I would never experience poverty. They had been poor themselves, and I have since been poor, and I quite agree with them that it is not an ennobling experience. Poverty entails fear, and stress, and sometimes depression; it means a thousand petty humiliations and hardships.Climbing out of poverty by your own efforts, that is indeed something on which to pride yourself, but poverty itself is romanticised only by fools.

What I feared most for myself at your age was not poverty, but failure.

At your age, in spite of a distinct lack of motivation at university, where I had spent far too long in the coffee bar writing stories, and far too little time at lectures, I had a knack for passing examinations, and that, for years, had been the measure of success in my life and that of my peers.

I am not dull enough to suppose that because you are young, gifted and well-educated, you have never known hardship or heartbreak. Talent and intelligence never yet inoculated anyone against the caprice of the Fates, and I do not for a moment suppose that everyone here has enjoyed an existence of unruffled privilege and contentment.

However, the fact that you are graduating from Harvard suggests that you are not very well-acquainted with failure. You might be driven by a fear of failure quite as much as a desire for success. Indeed, your conception of failure might not be too far from the average person's idea of success, so high have you already flown academically.

Ultimately, we all have to decide for ourselves what constitutes failure, but the world is quite eager to give you a set of criteria if you let it. So I think it fair to say that by any conventional measure, a mere seven years after my graduation day, I had failed on an epic scale. An exceptionally short-lived marriage had imploded, and I was jobless, a lone parent, and as poor as it is possible to be in modern Britain, without being homeless. The fears my parents had had for me, and that I had had for myself, had both come to pass, and by every usual standard, I was the biggest failure I knew.

Now, I am not going to stand here and tell you that failure is fun. That period of my life was a dark one, and I had no idea that there was going to be what the press has since represented as a kind of fairy tale resolution. I had no idea how far the tunnel extended, and for a long time, any light at the end of it was a hope rather than a reality.

So why do I talk about the benefits of failure? Simply because failure meant a stripping away of the inessential. I stopped pretending to myself that I was anything other than what I was, and began to direct all my energy into finishing the only work that mattered to me. Had I really succeeded at anything else, I might never have found the determination to succeed in the one arena I believed I truly belonged. I was set free, because my greatest fear had already been realised, and I was still alive, and I still had a daughter whom I adored, and I had an old typewriter and a big idea. And so rock bottom became the solid foundation on which I rebuilt my life.

You might never fail on the scale I did, but some failure in life is inevitable. It is impossible to live without failing at something, unless you live so cautiously that you might as well not have lived at all – in which case, you fail by default.

Failure gave me an inner security that I had never attained by passing examinations. Failure taught me things about myself that I could have learned no other way. I discovered that I had a strong will, and more discipline than I had suspected; I also found out that I had friends whose value was truly above rubies.

The knowledge that you have emerged wiser and stronger from setbacks means that you are, ever after, secure in your ability to survive. You will never truly know yourself, or the strength of your relationships, until both have been tested by adversity.Such knowledge is a true gift, for all that it is painfully won, and it has been worth more to me than any qualification I ever earned.

Given a time machine or a Time Turner, I would tell my 21-year-old self that personal happiness lies in knowing that life is not a check-list of acquisition or achievement. Your qualifications, your CV, are not your life, though you will meet many people of my age and older who confuse the two. Life is difficult, and complicated, and beyond anyone's total control, and the humility to know that will enable you to survive its vicissitudes.

You might think that I chose my second theme, the importance of imagination, because of the part it played in rebuilding my life, but that is not wholly so. Though I will defend the value of bedtime stories to my last gasp, I have learned to value imagination in a much broader sense. Imagination is not only the uniquely human capacity to envision that which is not, and therefore the fount of all invention and innovation. In its arguably most transformative and revelatory capacity, it is the power that enables us to empathise with humans whose experiences we have never shared.

One of the greatest formative experiences of my life preceded Harry Potter, though it informed much of what I subsequently wrote in those books. This revelation came in the form of one of my earliest day jobs. Though I was sloping off to write stories during my lunch hours, I paid the rent in my early 20s by working in the research department at Amnesty International's headquarters in London.

There in my little office I read hastily scribbled letters smuggled out of totalitarian regimes by men and women who were risking imprisonment to inform the outside world of what was happening to them. I saw photographs of those who had disappeared without trace, sent to Amnesty by their desperate families and friends. I read the testimony of torture victims and saw pictures of their injuries. I opened handwritten, eye-witness accounts of summary trials and executions, of kidnappings and rapes.

Many of my co-workers were ex-political prisoners, people who had been displaced from their homes, or fled into exile, because they had the temerity to think independently of their government. Visitors to our office included those who had come to give information, or to try and find out what had happened to those they had been forced to leave behind.

I shall never forget the African torture victim, a young man no older than I was at the time, who had become mentally ill after all he had endured in his homeland. He trembled uncontrollably as he spoke into a video camera about the brutality inflicted upon him. He was a foot taller than I was, and seemed as fragile as a child. I was given the job of escorting him to the Underground Station afterwards, and this man whose life had been shattered by cruelty took my hand with exquisite courtesy, and wished me future happiness.

And as long as I live I shall remember walking along an empty corridor and suddenly hearing, from behind a closed door, a scream of pain and horror such as I have never heard since. The door opened, and the researcher poked out her head and told me to run and make a hot drink for the young man sitting with her. She had just given him the news that in retaliation for his own outspokenness against his country's regime, his mother had been seized and executed.

Every day of my working week in my early 20s I was reminded how incredibly fortunate I was, to live in a country with a democratically elected government, where legal representation and a public trial were the rights of everyone.

Every day, I saw more evidence about the evils humankind will inflict on their fellow humans, to gain or maintain power.I began to have nightmares, literal nightmares, about some of the things I saw, heard and read.

And yet I also learned more about human goodness at Amnesty International than I had ever known before.

Amnesty mobilises thousands of people who have never been tortured or imprisoned for their beliefs to act on behalf of those who have. The power of human empathy, leading to collective action, saves lives, and frees prisoners. Ordinary people, whose personal well-being and security are assured, join together in huge numbers to save people they do not know, and will never meet. My small participation in that process was one of the most humbling and inspiring experiences of my life.

Unlike any other creature on this planet, humans can learn and understand, without having experienced. They can think themselves into other people's minds, imagine themselves into other people's places.

Of course, this is a power, like my brand of fictional magic, that is morally neutral. One might use such an ability to manipulate, or control, just as much as to understand or sympathise.

And many prefer not to exercise their imaginations at all. They choose to remain comfortably within the bounds of their own experience, never troubling to wonder how it would feel to have been born other than they are. They can refuse to hear screams or to peer inside cages; they can close their minds and hearts to any suffering that does not touch them personally; they can refuse to know.

I might be tempted to envy people who can live that way, except that I do not think they have any fewer nightmares than I do. Choosing to live in narrow spaces can lead to a form of mental agoraphobia, and that brings its own terrors. I think the wilfully unimaginative see more monsters. They are often more afraid.

What is more, those who choose not to empathise may enable real monsters. For without ever committing an act of outright evil ourselves, we collude with it, through our own apathy.

One of the many things I learned at the end of that Classics corridor down which I ventured at the age of 18, in search of something I could not then define, was this, written by the Greek author Plutarch: What we achieve inwardly will change outer reality.

That is an astonishing statement and yet proven a thousand times every day of our lives. It expresses, in part, our inescapable connection with the outside world, the fact that we touch other people's lives simply by existing.

But how much more are you, Harvard graduates of 2008, likely to touch other people's lives? Your intelligence, your capacity for hard work, the education you have earned and received, give you unique status, and unique responsibilities. Even your nationality sets you apart. The great majority of you belong to the world's only remaining superpower. The way you vote, the way you live, the way you protest, the pressure you bring to bear on your government, has an impact way beyond your borders. That is your privilege, and your burden.

If you choose to use your status and influence to raise your voice on behalf of those who have no voice; if you choose to identify not only with the powerful, but with the powerless; if you retain the ability to imagine yourself into the lives of those who do not have your advantages, then it will not only be your proud families who celebrate your existence, but thousands and millions of people whose reality you have helped transform for the better. We do not need magic to change the world, we carry all the power we need inside ourselves already: we have the power to imagine better.

I am nearly finished. I have one last hope for you, which is something that I already had at 21.The friends with whom I sat on graduation day have been my friends for life. They are my children's godparents, the people to whom I've been able to turn in times of trouble, friends who have been kind enough not to sue me when I've used their names for Death Eaters. At our graduation we were bound by enormous affection, by our shared experience of a time that could never come again, and, of course, by the knowledge that we held certain photographic evidence that would be exceptionally valuable if any of us ran for Prime Minister.

So today, I can wish you nothing better than similar friendships. And tomorrow, I hope that even if you remember not a single word of mine, you remember those of Seneca, another of those old Romans I met when I fled down the Classics corridor, in retreat from career ladders, in search of ancient wisdom:

As is a tale, so is life: not how long it is, but how good it is, is what matters.

I wish you all very good lives.


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Sunday 15 June 2008

Market Madness How Speculators are Manipulating & Profiting from the Global Food Crisis

 

 


Gupta's ZSpace page
  -- SPECIAL SERIES ON THE ECONOMY -- 

 

Unless you live in a bubble, like George Bush, who expressed total surprise in February when a reporter told him gas was nearing $4 a gallon, you've been socked hard in the pocketbook by rising prices. It's most evident at the supermarket—according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the cost of a gallon of milk has jumped 17 percent and a dozen eggs have leaped 40 percent in the last year and a loaf of bread is up nearly 30 percent in the last two years. At the gas pump the national average for regular gasoline notched a record $3.63 a gallon in early May, double from 2005, and it looks set to break the $4 barrier this summer. 

As dramatic as the consumer price increases are, the frenzy on commodity exchanges, where traders negotiate "futures" prices (and related financial products known as "options") is even more pronounced. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in an unprecedented public webcast, held hearings on April 22 examining why agricultural commodity prices are skyrocketing. It noted, "In the last three months, the agricultural staples of wheat, corn, soybeans, rice and oats have hit all-time highs." 

Over the last year, wheat prices are up 95 percent, soybeans are up 88 percent, corn is up 66 percent, and Thai B grade rice, the world's trading benchmark, ended 2007 at about $360 a metric ton. It hit $760 at the end of March and continued its dizzying climb to $1,080 less than a month later. On top of that, crude oil futures have more than doubled since January 2007, coming within a hair of $120 a barrel this April. 

One striking aspect of the rising commodity prices is that when charted, they look similar to the Internet stock mania a decade ago or the charts of soaring (and plunging) home prices of late. This is no mere coincidence. One of the main factors in accelerating commodity and food costs is financial speculation. The same Wall Street banks and hedge funds that gave us the stock bubble and the housing bubble are reportedly throwing billions of dollars at the commodity markets, betting they can make a fast buck. One analyst interviewed by the Wall Street Journal estimates that "investors have poured roughly $175 billion to $200 billion into commodity-linked index funds since 2001." The Journal explained, "As with energy markets a few years ago, pension funds and hedge funds have flocked to grain investments as the supply of farm acreage and crop output shrinks relative to the growing global population and new demands for crops for biofuels and food. Many such investors make predominantly bullish bets," that is, expecting the price to rise. 

The daily fluctuations on commodity exchanges are at times greater than used to occur in an entire year. On February 25 alone, at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, one type of wheat jumped 29 percent. On a single day in March, "the price of cotton jumped 15 percent despite reports showing cotton supplies were at near record highs," according to the Toronto Globe and Mail. During the CFTC hearings, commodity producers laid the blame for soaring prices at the speculators' door. A representative of the National Grain and Feed Association testified, "Sixty percent of the current [wheat] market is owned by an index fund. Clearly that's having an impact on the market," while a cotton producer stated, "The market is broken, it's out of whack." 

If there is a main culprit, it is the market. There is a lot of talk about growing consumption and falling supplies for both food and energy, but most of the data contradicts these claims. For example, despite a drought in Australia, ice and snow storms throughout China, and a cold, wet winter in the American breadbasket, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization projects global cereal production for 2007-2008 to increase by 92 million tons to 2.102 billion tons. But almost all this increase is from a record U.S. corn harvest, which is feeding the market for biofuels.

In essence, large speculators ranging from Wall Street banks and hedge funds to oil companies and agribusiness giants are making a killing from trading commodities. Analysts say some players may be manipulating the markets, but this is extremely difficult to prove because regulatory oversight of these markets has been deliberately rolled back. Still, many sectors appear to be engaging in blatant profiteering. This includes speculators, but also extends to food retailers, food producers, and fertilizer manufacturers. One of the ironies of the current situation is that even as the revenue of farmers is increasing furiously, especially in the United States, they are losing out on profits because of the wild gyrations in the commodities markets. 

Grain shortages abound because speculators' profits are literally coming at the expense of the world's poor. Food riots have occurred in Egypt, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Ethiopia—countries where many people spend half their income or more on food (compared to less than 10 percent for Americans). The starkest indication of the deprivation is seen in countries like Haiti where, as rice prices have skyrocketed, the poor have been turning to mud cakes made with oil and sugar for sustenance.  

Raj Patel, author of Stuffed and Starved, says, "It's obviously a crime against humanity that this kind of financial speculation is allowed to continue. It's one thing to have speculation on the price of widgets or car parts, but it's another thing to have speculation in the fount of human life.... This should be a wake-up call to help us realize that food isn't a commodity, it's a human right." In a speech on April 2, World Bank President Robert Zoellick noted that food prices "have jumped 80 percent" since 2005, and "33 countries around the world face potential social unrest because of the acute hike in food and energy prices." A few weeks later, the World Food Program called high food prices "a silent tsunami" that has already pushed an estimated 100 million people deeper into poverty and which threatened "to plunge more than 100 million people on every continent into hunger." 

In the United States, the situation is troubling, if not as dire as the developing world. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates 12.1 percent of Americans, or more than 35 million people, experienced "food insecurity" in 2006. For many, this meant running out of food towards the end of the month, skipping meals, or not eating for a whole day. (Until the Bush administration changed definitions, this used to be known as "hunger.") Reports from media outlets, food banks, and soup kitchens indicate that food insecurity is increasing, caused by the leap in food and energy prices, along with the weakening economy, falling home prices, and fast-rising unemployment. Many low-income Americans, especially retirees on fixed incomes, are being forced to choose between eating, staying warm, or purchasing prescription drugs.  

One of the more disturbing signs of economic desperation is that many Americans are selling off their belongings to "meet higher gas, food and prescription drug bills," according to the Associated Press. The hard evidence comes from websites like Craigslist where the number of for-sale listings from March 2008 have "more than doubled to almost 15 million from the year-ago period" and are often accompanied by pleas like, "Please buy anything you can to help out." 

The Inflation Equation 

Understanding the nature and causes of inflation—when prices rise quickly and purchasing power diminishes —is difficult to grasp because there is a gap between people's daily experience and the official story. For years government officials have been declaring soothingly that inflation is "under control." The government reports that consumer inflation has been around 2-3 percent for the last 10 years and has jumped to almost 4 percent in the last 6 months. Some economists, including ones that run the website Shadow Government Statistics, claim the real inflation rate has been above 8 percent for the last decade and is closer to 12 percent at the moment. (They assert one reason the government manipulates the rate of inflation is to reduce cost-of-living adjustments that must be made to Social Security payments.) 

Any number of reasons has been put forth for rising commodity and food prices: diminishing inventories of grains, greater consumption of animal products in Asia, a growing global population, global warming, biofuels, natural limits, financial speculation, the falling dollar, escalating crude oil prices, World Bank and IMF policies, hoarding, export restrictions, and more. In one way or another, all of these factor into inflation. But it's not a jumble of reasons; there are a few critical causal chains and feedback loops behind the chaos. In broad terms, the nature of the globalized economy—the role of financial speculation, the dumping of subsidized foodstuffs from Western farmers in poor countries forced to "liberalize" their agricultural sectors, the declining dollar, and the overheated oil market—is why prices are shooting up. What ties all these factors together is politics. It's a political decision to allow rampant speculation in commodities; it's a political decision to decrease regulation of commodities trading; it's a political decision to devalue the dollar by increasing deficits and cutting interest rates; it's a political decision to force poor countries to dismantle supports for their farming sector; it's a political decision to force the poor to buy food in the marketplace, instead of making access to food a basic human right.

The Return of Malthus 

Much of the debate boils down to politics versus natural limits. This debate stretches back more than 200 years to Thomas Malthus's 1798 "Essay on the Principle of Population," in which he argued, as John Bellamy Foster put it, "There is a constant pressure of population against food supply which has always applied and will always apply." Without retracing the debate over hundreds of years (Foster's 1998 essay in Monthly Review, "Malthus' Essay on Population at Age 200: A Marxian View," is an excellent introduction), it's critical to note that it's still of great relevance today. Many people who speak of natural limits—such as the "peak oil" or "peak food" crowd—are neo- Malthusians. They often exhibit hostility toward the poor like Malthus, who wrote, "We cannot, in the nature of things, assist the poor, in any way, without enabling them to rear up to manhood a greater number of their children." 

Some involved in the debate today, such as Lester Brown and the World Watch Institute, tread close to the Malthusian line in warning of the "population problem" and arguing that it is a major reason why commodity prices are rising. Despite talk of increased food aid—which involves buying more subsidized Western foodstuffs and dumping them in impoverished countries, thereby further undermining their food security by bankrupting small farmers who can't compete against free foods— there is a willingness to let the poor die en masse in adherence to the neoliberal agenda. 

There are, of course, limits to everything—food, population, energy. But as Marx argued in the Grundrisse, overpopulation is "a historically determined relation, in no way determined by abstract numbers or by the absolute limit of the productivity of the necessaries of life, but by limits posited by specific conditions of production." It is these limits imposed—such as biofuel production and speculation—that are behind the global food crisis.  

On the other side, there is a strategy to blame the developing world for both the food and fuel crisis. China and India, with their booming economies, are held as culprits for the rising demand and thus shrinking supplies of food and energy supplies. India and China's population and caloric intake is increasing, particularly that of meat and dairy products. But this is a decades-long trend. There is no way that steady growth over 20 or 30 years could cause commodity prices to double in a year or 2. For example, from 1990 to 2003, India's caloric intake grew by 155 calories a person, barely 12 calories a year, while China's grew by 231 calories, or 18 calories a year. (During this same period, the intake of the average American increased by 310 calories.) At the same time, despite adverse climatic events such as large crop failures in Australia, the world's cereal output has increased. Part of the problem, notes Raj Patel, is that by one estimate, "740 million tons of grains were fed to animals last year and that would cover the food deficit at the moment 14 times over." 

The biofuels industry has been eager to blame China. An April 2008 "study" published by the Biofuels Digest was headlined "China's Meat Consumption Causing Global Grain Shortage." But the study contradicted itself because it found that China's per capita meat consumption increased by less than seven pounds total from 2000 to 2007, a miniscule rise.  The same strategy of blaming China and India is being used to hang the energy crisis as well as global warming around their necks. China and India use about 10 million barrels a day of petroleum products. But that's half the U.S. consumption of 20.6 MBD and they have nearly 8 times the population between them. 

The "Dot-Corn" Bubble 

It is in industrial agriculture where the link between energy and food inflation becomes apparent. The food we eat is literally hydrocarbons like oil. Oil is used for pesticides and herbicides to plant, harvest, and mill grains, to manufacture food products, to transport them and drive them home from the supermarket. Oil is even more central to meat production as the animals are reared on grain-heavy diets. On top of this, fertilizer, the boon of industrial agriculture, is mostly produced from natural gas, which has also been rising in price. With diesel above $4 a gallon already, businesses are passing the costs through the commodity chain to consumers (and truckers). The rise in egg prices has been extreme and therein lies an interesting story. The average egg-laying hen will in a year produce 276 eggs and eat 83 pounds of feed, three-quarters of which is corn. 

With the rise in oil prices, there has been a boom in biofuels like corn-based ethanol. Last December, President Bush signed a law mandating the use of at least 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2020. In the summer of 2006, when corn was $2 a bushel and oil $70 a barrel, ethanol producers averaged $1.06 in profits per gallon sold. But then, corn prices doubled to $4 a bushel last year and just breached $6 a bushel this April. Midwestern farmers giddily joke about a "dot-corn" bubble as many of them (and their suppliers) rake in the money, but for everyone else, including ethanol producers, it's been a disaster. Various analyses show that ethanol distilled from corn uses more energy to produce than it provides. It's also a worse greenhouse gas emitter than crude oil and it's driving up feed costs for cattle ranchers, hog farmers, and egg producers, which is a big reason why eggs are much more expensive.

The effects go further still. Corn or corn syrup is used in three-quarters of all processed foods, from bread, chips, and soda to peanut butter, oatmeal, and salad dressing. It's even found in diapers and dry cell batteries, meaning thousands of products are experiencing upward price pressure. Corn is also distorting agricultural production as U.S. farmers have shifted more cropland to corn and have planted less soy and wheat. In 2007, 24 percent of the corn crop, some 3.2 billion bushels, was made into ethanol.  

The price of wheat has skyrocketed, boosted by the weak dollar, falling supplies, and speculation. The price of soybean oil is also increasing, partly because of its use for biodiesel. In August 2007, "376.2 million pounds of soybean oil were used for bio-diesel production, accounting for 20.6 percent of the monthly use of U.S. soybean oil," according to the University of Illinois. Having planted so much corn last year, some U.S. farmers are switching to other crops, partly because oil-thirsty corn, even at $6 a bushel, is seeing its margins squeezed by soaring costs for fertilizer and diesel. 

The Oil Factor 

Rising energy prices are a major factor in the escalating costs of agricultural products. But there is still the issue of why oil prices have almost quintupled since 2002. There are three main explanations: supply and demand, speculation, and the U.S. government's monetary policy. The White House and many pundits point to supply and demand because it's presented as a natural economic law beyond anyone's control. In this view China, India, and the rest of the developing world are the culprits. Yes, China's and India's consumption is rising rapidly, as is that of Middle East countries awash in oil. But from 2002 to 2006, even as oil prices tripled, global oil production kept up with demand by increasing 7.6 million barrels a day to 84.6 MBD. Demand growth has also slowed to a 1.1 million barrel per day annual increase from 2005 to 2008. This is compared to a 3 MBD increase in 2004 alone.  

Even more telling, OPEC has announced numerous production cuts over the last year because it wants to keep oil prices high. So if we are supposedly experiencing natural limits to the production of oil, why is production being reduced? OPEC country ministers publicly proclaim they want to keep oil prices high because of falling value of the dollar. The falling dollar is being caused by two main factors: the U.S. trade and the federal budget deficits. 

There is also an issue of "excess capacity." The cushion between production and consumption has fallen dramatically in the last six years, which has created supply hiccups and higher prices. The cause is not geological limits, however, but another factor: U.S. foreign policy. The Bush administration has destabilized three major oil producers that have suffered declining production in recent years—Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela. 

The commodities building blocks of the modern economy include everything from coal, oil, wood, gold, and copper to cotton, milk, corn, cattle, and sugar. Manufacturers need commodities to produce finished goods while consumers usually encounter commodities at the grocery store. Commodities trading, such as livestock, dates back to ancient times, but the modern "futures" market was established in Chicago in the 1840s. There, at the board of trade, commodities are standardized according to "quantity, quality, delivery month, and terms," while traders negotiate prices and contract amounts. Ideally, this system, through the buying and selling of futures contracts, allows farmers to determine what to plant based on futures prices for corn and wheat while an industrial-scale baker can lock in prices for flour, butter, and sugar months in advance. 

After the Internet bubble burst in 2000, the Fed lowered interest rates to historic lows, which increased the amount of money being borrowed and thus the amount of money in circulation. This is known as monetary inflation. What happens is the money supply increases at a faster rate than the production of goods and services. When many more dollars are competing for these goods and services, the result is an inevitable rise in prices. An example of how this works is the link between rising oil prices and the Fed's interest rate cuts. Since the Fed started slashing rates last September, the dollar has plunged against the euro, oil has risen by more than $40 a barrel and gold, at one point, by some $300 an ounce. The Fed is increasing the money supply, which means there are now more dollars in circulation than before against the euro, so the dollar falls in value. As the dollar drops against the euro, oil-producing countries demand more dollars per barrel.

Another inflationary factor is the federal budget deficit, which has doubled under Bush's watch, and the trade deficit. To stabilize the "current account balance," the United States needs an inflow of nearly $1 trillion a year to make up the difference. Dollars flow out because of our overconsumption and excessive government spending, while investments flow in to buy corporate, consumer, and government debt. The torrential outflow of dollars, however, weakens the value of the dollar. The trade deficit is running at about $58 billion a month. More than two-thirds of that goes to pay for the 12.5 million barrels of imported oil we use every day. Rising oil prices have become a vicious feedback loop. As oil prices spiral upwards and dollars flow out, the dollar drops in value, spurring the next round of oil price increases, a greater outflow of dollars, and a further drop in value. 

There is one other factor that's rarely talked about, except in the financial press—speculation, which "amplifies" price moves. After the Internet bubble popped, many investment banks and hedge funds began speculating in commodities. Speculators, when they buy a futures contract, create demand. But they are not interested in getting the actual pork bellies or coal. They just want to make a fast buck. When inflation rises significantly, commodities become an attractive investment because they increase in price rapidly. But the speculation completes the feedback loop by making the price rise inevitable and drawing in more speculators. 

This is a major factor in the oil markets. In 2004 the New York Times recounted one speculative episode: "When low inventories and news of violent attacks on oil executives and facilities in Saudi Arabia drove oil futures up, speculators piled on, according to market analysts. Their buying forced crude prices up even higher, attracting yet more investors betting on a continued rise, and so on in a classic spiral." Even the head of Exxon, in a March 5 press conference, admitted speculation was a big factor. According to the financial news website Marketwatch, CEO Rex Tillerson called the price increases "pretty crazy" and said, "A weak dollar accounts for about a third of the recent record run in oil prices, another third on geopolitical uncertainty and the rest on market speculation." 

The Enron Loophole 

What made the oil market speculation possible was legislation passed in the waning days of the Clinton administration. At the behest of energy-trading companies like Enron, a shadow electronic trading system was created that allowed speculators to trade oil futures contracts beyond the regulatory oversight of the Commodities Future Trading Commission. The CFTC is empowered to establish trading limits ''as the Commission finds are necessary to diminish, eliminate, or prevent" the "burden" arising from speculation. Because the CFTC can't track much of the oil trading now, it can't stop the speculation. A U.S. Senate subcommittee report from June 2006 squarely blamed speculators for much of the rise in oil prices, estimating more than $60 billion had poured into the markets at that point. 

The report noted that even as oil prices were rising, so were oil inventories because suppliers were gambling they could get more money down the road. The same exact thing occurred earlier this year. Crude oil prices zoomed nearly $20 a barrel in January and February. But in eight of nine weeks, U.S. oil inventories increased to multi-year highs. Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen's Energy Program, explains how it works: "You've got hundreds of parties entering into an electronic format to exchange massive volumes of crude oil and gasoline and natural gas and electric power and coal and ethanol and whatever else they want to do. And it's all unregulated." The players, says Slocum, include, "Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and a huge host of hedge funds. Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, UBS—all the big investment banks. The big oil companies that are traders are BP, Shell, and Marathon. Exxon Mobil really is not a big trader."  

There are some "legitimate supply-demand issues that are driving prices up," he says. But "supply and demand does not justify the level of prices that we are seeing right now. I think that has to do with the increased level of trading volume, volatility and speculation that is represented by a lot of these new players." Slocum adds that because we "lack any effective transparency...that marketplace has an invitation to engage in anti-competitive behavior—colluding, rigging bets, price fixing." 

It's hard to say if agricultural commodities markets are being manipulated, but there appears to be naked profiteering. For one, at the Chicago Board of Trade, there has been a big leap in electronic trading. The volume of wheat and oat contracts in the electronic arena (as opposed to the classic "open pit" where traders physically meet) has increased by more than 130 percent in 2008 so far, while rice contracts have ballooned by 219 percent. Patel says he thinks that "hedge funds and grain-trading divisions of the large agribusinesses are making a ton of cash, like Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland." 

In 2007 Cargill posted a 36 percent increase in profit over the previous year, ADM 67 percent, and ConAgra 30 percent. In the first quarter of 2008 Cargill announced an 86 percent increase in profit to $1.03 billion, which it attributed in part to the fact that "investment monies have streamed into commodity markets," meaning "prices are setting new highs and markets are extraordinarily volatile." 

Another sector profiting handsomely is fertilizer companies. In the last few years, fertilizer prices have risen dramatically. Some, such as urea and diammonium phosphate, have almost doubled or tripled in the last year. In fact, the price charts of some fertilizers closely match crude oil prices. That would make sense, except most fertilizer is manufactured by using natural gas and natural gas prices have been swinging up and down since 2000, not climbing a steep mountainside like oil.

This year, fertilizer companies have been experiencing the "sweet smell of success," as Forbes puts it. On April 4, Mosaic, the world's second-largest fertilizer maker and a Cargill unit, announced a 12-fold increase in profits to $520.8 million. Another manufacturer, Bunge, said its profits increased to $289 million from $14 million a year ago, and a third, Potash, announced its "first-quarter net earnings nearly tripled to $566.0 million." What makes these huge profits so suspicious is if their costs were increasing dramatically, their profits should be pinched. Instead, Forbes noted, there was only a "slight rise in raw material costs." 

That's not to say they are manipulating the price increases that take place in the futures markets, but they do seem to be taking full advantage of it. Patel says food retailers are also profiteering. He says "corporations are using food price inflation as an excuse to ratchet up prices.... In fact, in the UK and Spain and South Africa, retailers such as Tesco and Asda [the British division of Wal-Mart] are under criminal investigation for their price-fixing of milk and chicken and bread." A report posted on the website grain.org, "Making a Killing from Hunger," detailed the profit increases among food manufacturers and retailers. NestlĂ©'s worldwide sales grew 7 percent in 2007, Tesco reported a record profit of 12.3 percent last year, Unilever said its profit margins were increasing, and "France's Carrefour and the U.S.'s Wal-Mart, say that foo d sales are the main factor sustaining their profit increases." That's not to say every corporation is raking it in; some food manufacturers, such as Kraft Foods, have announced declining profits due to higher input costs. 

The Great Rice Panic 

There is no one explanation for why all commodities are rising in price. As the world's workshop, China creates demand-driven inflation for various industrial commodities.  It needs mountains of coal, huge swaths of forests, and great veins of copper ore to feed its industry. 

In contrast, since the end of 2007, the price of Thai B grade rice doubled to $760 a ton by the end of March and then hit $1,080 weeks later. The reason for the initial rise is attributed to various supply and demand causes—a pest outbreak in Vietnam, low global stocks, the biofuel boom, rising demand from rising affluence. But speculation is driving these huge price leaps here, too. Essentially, all parties involved in the rice trade are engaging in fear-induced speculation. Major rice-exporting countries like India, Thailand, and Vietnam are limiting exports to ensure the domestic market is satisfied, thereby constraining supplies for rice importers. Farmers, including many in Thailand, are reportedly hoarding rice because, as one observer told the Guardian (UK), "Who's going to sell rice at $750 a ton when they think it's going to hit $1,000?" According to anecdotal reports, many consumers in Asia are buying large supplies of rice now because of fears they will pay more down the road. 

All this panic and speculation feeds on itself. Absent a global famine, normal demand or supply issues cannot explain why rice prices have tripled in Asia in just a few months. 

Another explanation comes by way of the interplay between environment and economics. Australia used to be one of the largest producers and exporters of rice in the world, but 6 years of drought have reduced the crop to virtually nothing, just 2 percent of its former self. In describing the situation, the New York Times notes, while it's difficult to say any short-term weather pattern is caused by global warming, the "severe drought is consistent with what climatologists predict will be a problem of increasing frequency." 

The rice industry has collapsed because farmers are turning to other commodities. For instance, "Some farmers are abandoning rice, which requires large amounts of water, to plant less water-intensive crops like wheat." Others are turning to wine grapes, which also use less water and bring pre-tax profits of $2,000 an acre versus $240 an acre for rice. Others are finding it more valuable to sell their water rights or even land to grape growers. One result, then, is because of market-based decisions, wine production is increasing for affluent populations while the poorest rice-dependent populations are left to scramble in the marketplace for food to survive. 

Putting the inflation genie back into the bottle is no simple task. One immediate solution is to better regulate commodities markets and tax futures contracts. A similar idea has been proposed on currency speculation, known as the Tobin Tax. A small tax would not hinder the actual buyers and sellers, but it would take a bite out of speculative interest. 

For the United States, the answers are much more difficult. The Fed is using inflationary policies to devalue U.S.-denominated debt, which helps the government and corporations, but harms consumers. Cutting the federal deficit is a no-brainer, but unlikely, and involve repealing the tax cuts for the wealthy and ending the Iraq War. The trade deficit must be cut, but even in the best-case scenario, it would take decades to build a new energy infrastructure independent of imported oil. 

Some suggest inducing a severe recession, as the Fed did in the early 1980s by jacking interest rates, but the pain would be severe for many Americans. A better solution is a real green energy and infrastructure program combined with single-payer national health care and expanded unemployment and welfare benefits. This could cushion the impact of the recession, while shifting the United States to a healthier economic base. But in this neoliberal world, that's about as likely to happen as George Bush ever admitting he's wrong. 

 



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Saturday 14 June 2008

Marriage and sex: A year of living passionately

 

What would happen to your marriage if you decided to have sex every day? Two couples have done just that, and recorded their experiences in books which come to surprising conclusions. Jonathan Brown and Nikoliina Sajn report

Saturday, 14 June 2008

Ask a man what he wants for his 40th birthday present and the average wife can be assured of a variety of predictable responses. A golfing weekend, maybe something for the garden or even, at a push, the new Coldplay album. But offer him guaranteed sex every day for a year and the answer is likely to prove both surprising and not a little disappointing.

Such was the experience of Charla Muller, a 39-year-old mother of two who made just such an extraordinary suggestion to her husband, Brad, on the eve of his birthday milestone. "He actually told me no. He thought I wouldn't be up for the challenge," she recalls. But perseverance being the key to a successful marriage, Mr Muller was eventually persuaded to accept what they now refer to simply as "the gift" and the couple embarked on their year-long sexual odyssey with admirable dedication.
Their exploits over the year now form the basis for a remarkable new book entitled 365 Nights which is now poised to take the United States by storm. That and a second tome, Just Do It , by Douglas Brown , a Denver-based lifestyle journalist, and his wife Annie, who committed to 100 successive days of marital workouts, are being hailed as either a panacea to the modern lifestyle pressures that render so many marriages sex-free zones, or a prescription for relationship pain.
Both couples are now engaged in separate tours of the talk-show sofas, touting their various takes on the joys of daily coitus. Both books are due to go on sale in Britain later this summer when they are expected to spark a similar debate over the merits of such goal-orientated coupling.
Mrs Muller, of Charlotte, North Carolina, readily admits that the couple failed in their attempts to perform every single night of the year, due to various business trips and New Year's Eve when her husband was "overserved" with drinks and found himself unwilling to knuckle down to his task. But they still notched up 26 to 28 times a month, not bad for a working couple who had been together for eight years and well above the married average of 66 a year. "I would have told anyone before the gift that we had a great marriage. I was married to a great guy and I like to think I was a good wife and there were no problems in that department," she said. The couple agreed a set of ground rules and insisted on keeping within the "spirit of the gift" allowing them to cry off in the event of a genuine headache.
Mrs Brown added: "Sometimes we missed a day and it was never mandatory. But we set a definition of sex that we felt comfortable with although I'm not going to be too specific about what that definition was." The Browns, who, according to their publishers, "literally screwed their way through months of a cold Colorado winter", worked hard at changing the venue to keep them on target. They checked into hotels of varying star ratings, visited an ashram, took to the great outdoors, but centred most of their efforts on that most traditional of arenas – the marital bedroom, which they dubbed the "sex den" in a bid to keep the allure alive. They also used a variety of props including candles, lube, a box of dressing-up clothes, some sex toys and even Viagra – just in case they needed to augment their natural abilities.
Those seeking visceral details of the couple's exploits will be disappointed with the contents of the book. "It is very much G-rated – really pretty clean. I didn't want my parents to be offended," Mrs Brown said. Her husband added: "I wasn't sure if I'd be comfortable writing about it, but by the end of this thing, it was just this wild, kind of madcap adventure. It was a really colourful romp, so I knew we had a good story."
The book has now been optioned by 20th Century Fox for a possible film adaptation.
Both couples report similar benefits from their endeavours and say they now enjoy greater levels of intimacy, not all of it sexual. "We touch more," said Mr Brown. "We would have entire days and maybe had a peck at the end of the night, and that was the only time we touched. During the 100 days, it wasn't just the sex; we were hugging each other, and that has carried on." His wife,a marketing executive, agreed: "What we really learnt is that we have to take care of each other more and pay attention to each other in ways that we haven't since the early days of our marriage."
Yet despite the glowing endorsements, British relationship experts seem reluctant to encourage couples to pursue the same strategy to rekindle their flagging sex lives. Paula Hall, a sexual and relationship psychotherapist, warned there could be "potential dangers" with some using sex to mask underlying problems of communication. "My anxiety is that this may make the couple more functional, but wouldn't necessarily make them want to have sex, that it wouldn't actually increase desire, but that after a hundred days they would say, oh, thank God it's over," she said. She added that a process of "gradual desensitisation" would be more appropriate with couples slowly restarting their physical relationship.
Dr Michael Perring, founding member of the British Association for Sexual and Relationship Therapy, was equally sceptical. "This claim sounds like an eye-catching phrase but I would have to see what they really did," he said.
"There is nothing inherently dangerous in having sex every day, except that it may be time-consuming. The view is that sex is good for a person." Dr Perring said there were many people who wanted sex every day – the problem was finding a partner who could keep up with them.



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