Is Modi Afraid of Lok Sabha Elections?

 

The Economist examines India's Economic Performance

 From The Economist

In the second week of 2024 business leaders descended on Gujarat, the home state of Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister. The occasion was the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit, one of many gabfests at which India has courted global investors. “At a time when the world is surrounded by many uncertainties, India has emerged as a new ray of hope,” boasted Mr Modi at the event.

He is right. Although global growth is expected to slow from 2.6% last year to 2.4% in 2024, India appears to be booming. Its economy grew by 7.6% in the 12 months to the third quarter of 2023, beating nearly every forecast. Most economists expect an annual growth rate of 6% or more for the rest of this decade. Investors are seized by optimism.

The timing is good for Mr Modi. In April some 900m Indians will be eligible to vote in the largest election in world history. A big reason Mr Modi, who has been in office since 2014, is likely to win a third term is that many Indians think him a more competent manager of the world’s fifth-largest economy than they do any other candidate. Are they right?

To assess Mr Modi’s record The Economist has analysed India’s economic performance and the success of his biggest reforms. In many respects the picture is muddy—and not helped by sparse and poorly kept official data. Growth has outpaced that of most emerging economies, but India’s labour market remains weak and private-sector investment has disappointed. But that may be changing. Aided by Mr Modi’s reforms, India may be on the cusp of an investment boom that would pay off for years.

The headline growth figures reveal surprisingly little. India’s gdp per person, after adjusting for purchasing power, has grown at an average pace of 4.3% per year during Mr Modi’s decade in power. That is lower than the 6.2% achieved under Manmohan Singh, his predecessor, who also served for ten years.

image: the economist

But this slowdown was not Mr Modi’s doing: much of it is down to the bad hand he inherited. In the 2010s an infrastructure boom started to go sour. India faced what Arvind Subramanian, later a government adviser, has called a twin balance-sheet crisis, one that struck both banks and infrastructure firms. They were left loaded with bad debt, crimping investment for years afterwards. Mr Modi also took office at a time when global growth had slowed, scarred by the financial crisis of 2007-09. Then came the covid-19 pandemic. The difficult conditions meant average growth among 20 other large lower- and middle-income economies fell from 3.2% during Mr Singh’s time in office to 1.6% during Mr Modi’s. Compared with this group, India has continued to outperform (see chart 1).

Against such a turbulent backdrop, it is better to assess Mr Modi’s record by considering his stated economic objectives: to formalise the economy, improve the ease of doing business and boost manufacturing. On the first two, he has made progress. On the third, his results have so far been poor.

India’s economy has certainly become more formal under Mr Modi, albeit at a high cost. The idea has been to draw activity out of the shadow economy, which is dominated by small and inefficient firms that do not pay tax, and into the formal sphere of large, productive companies.

Mr Modi’s most controversial policy on this front has been demonetisation. In 2016 he banned the use of two large-value banknotes, accounting for 86% of rupees in circulation—surprising many even within his government. The stated aim was to render worthless the ill-gotten gains of the corrupt. But almost all the cash made its way into the banking system, suggesting that crooks had already gone cashless or laundered their money. Instead, the informal economy was crushed. Household investment and credit plunged, and growth was probably hurt. In private, even Mr Modi’s supporters in business do not mince words. “It was a disaster,” says one boss.

Demonetisation may have accelerated India’s digitisation nonetheless. The country’s digital public infrastructure now includes a universal identity scheme, a national payments system and a personal-data management system for things like tax documents. It was conceived by Mr Singh’s government, but much of it has been built under Mr Modi, who has shown the capacity of the Indian state to get big projects done. Most retail payments in cities are now digital, and most welfare transfers seamless, because Mr Modi gave almost all households bank accounts.

Those reforms made it easier for Mr Modi to ameliorate the poverty resulting from India’s disappointing job-creation record. Fearing that stubbornly low employment would stop living standards for the poorest from improving, the government now doles out welfare payments worth some 3% of gdp per year. Hundreds of government programmes send money directly to the bank accounts of the poor.

It is a big improvement on the old system, in which most welfare was distributed physically and, owing to corruption, often failed to reach its intended recipients. The poverty rate (the proportion of people living on less than $2.15 a day), has fallen from 19% in 2015 to 12% in 2021, according to the World Bank.

Digitisation has probably also drawn more economic activity into the formal sector. So has Mr Modi’s other signature economic policy: a national goods and services tax (gst), passed in 2017, which knitted together a patchwork of state levies across the country. The combination of homogenous payments and tax systems has brought India closer to a national single market than ever.

That has made doing business easier—Mr Modi’s second objective. gst has been a “game-changer”, says B. Santhanam, the regional boss of Saint-Gobain, a large French manufacturer with big investments in the southern state of Tamil Nadu. “The prime minister gets it,” adds another seasoned manufacturing executive, referring to the need to cut red tape. The government has also put serious money into physical infrastructure, such as roads and bridges. Public investment surged from around 3.5% of gdp in 2019 to nearly 4.5% in 2022 and 2023.

The results are now materialising. Mr Subramanian recently wrote that, as a share of gdp, in 2023 net revenues from the new tax regime exceeded those of the old system. This happened even as tax rates on many items fell. That more money is coming in despite lower rates suggests that the economy really is formalising.

Yet Mr Modi is not satisfied with merely formalising the economy. His third objective has been to industrialise it. In 2020 the government launched a subsidy scheme worth $26bn (1% of gdp) for products made in India. In 2021 it pledged $10bn for semiconductor companies to build plants domestically. One boss notes that Mr Modi personally takes the trouble to convince executives to invest, often in industries where they face little competition and so otherwise might not.

image: the economist

Some incentives could help new industries find their feet and show foreign bosses that India is open for business. In September Foxconn, Apple’s main supplier, said it would double its investments in India over the coming year. It currently makes some 10% of its iPhones there. Also in 2023 Micron, a chipmaker, began work on a $2.75bn plant in Gujarat that is expected to create some 5,000 jobs directly and 15,000 indirectly.

So far, however, these projects are too small to be economically significant. The value of manufactured exports as a share of gdp has stagnated at 5% over the past decade, and manufacturing’s share of the economy has fallen from about 18% under the previous government to 16%. And industrial policy is expensive. The government will bear 70% of the cost of the Micron plant—meaning it will pay nearly $100,000 per job. Tariffs are ticking up, on average, raising the cost of foreign inputs.

image: the economist

So what matters more: Mr Modi’s failures or his successes? As well as economic growth, it is worth looking at private-sector investment. It has been sluggish during Mr Modi’s time in office (see chart 2). But a boom may be coming. A recent report by Axis Bank, one of India’s largest lenders, argues that the private-investment cycle is likely to turn, thanks to healthy bank and corporate balance-sheets. Announcements of new investment projects by private corporations soared past $200bn in 2023, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a think-tank. That is the highest in a decade, and up 150% in nominal terms since 2019.

Although higher interest rates have sapped foreign direct investment in the past year, firms’ reported intentions to invest in India remain strong, as they seek to “de-risk” their exposure to China. There is some chance, then, that Mr Modi’s reforms will kick growth up a gear. If so, he will have earned his reputation as a successful economic manager.

The consequences of Mr Modi’s policies will take years to be felt in full. Just as an investment boom could vindicate his approach, his strategy of using welfare payments as a substitute for job creation could prove unsustainable. A failure to build local governments’ capacity to provide basic public services, such as education, may hinder growth. Subhash Chandra Garg, a former finance secretary under Mr Modi, worries that the government is too keen on “subsidies” and “freebies”, and that its “commitment to real reforms is no longer that strong.” And yet for all that, many Indians will go to the polls feeling cautiously optimistic about the economic changes that their prime minister has wrought.

'Don't take GDP so seriously': In The fastest growing economy 100 million people are dependent on NREGA benefits

 

A Level Economics 78: Economic Growth

Economic Growth: Economic growth refers to the sustained increase in a country's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over time. It is an essential indicator of an economy's overall health and progress, as it reflects the expansion of productive capacity and the ability to produce more goods and services.

Potential Economic Growth: Potential economic growth represents the maximum rate at which an economy can grow sustainably over the long run without generating inflationary pressures or increasing unemployment. It is determined by the growth of the economy's productive capacity, driven by factors such as increases in the labor force, improvements in technology, and capital investments.

Actual Economic Growth: Actual economic growth, on the other hand, represents the real GDP growth rate observed in a given period, which can be either higher or lower than the potential growth rate. Actual growth can be affected by short-term fluctuations in economic activity, changes in aggregate demand, business cycles, and other factors that may lead the economy to deviate from its potential output.

2. Differences between Measured Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Potential Growth:

Measured GDP (Actual Growth): Measured GDP refers to the total value of all goods and services produced within a country's borders over a specific period, typically a quarter or a year. It is the actual growth rate reported for the economy and represents the percentage change in GDP compared to the previous period. Actual GDP can fluctuate over time due to changes in consumer spending, business investment, government spending, and net exports.

Potential Growth: Potential growth, as mentioned earlier, represents the maximum sustainable rate at which an economy can grow without generating inflationary pressures. It is a theoretical concept based on the economy's productive capacity and the factors that determine its long-term growth potential. Potential growth is often estimated using factors like labor force growth, productivity improvements, and technological advancements.

Economic Growth vs. Short-Term Changes in National Income:

Economic growth, in the context of macroeconomics, primarily refers to an increase in the productive capacity of the economy over the long run. It is about the ability of an economy to produce more goods and services consistently and sustainably.

On the other hand, short-term changes in national income, also known as business cycles, refer to the fluctuations in economic activity that occur over shorter periods, often due to changes in aggregate demand. Business cycles encompass periods of economic expansion (boom), contraction (recession), and recovery.

It's important to note that economic growth is a long-term trend, while short-term changes in national income are influenced by various factors like changes in consumer spending, investment, government policies, and external shocks.

Conclusion:

Economic growth is a fundamental concept in economics, representing the sustained increase in a country's real GDP over time. Potential economic growth reflects the maximum sustainable growth rate, while actual economic growth represents the real GDP growth observed in a specific period. Additionally, economic growth focuses on the expansion of the economy's productive capacity in the long run, rather than short-term fluctuations in national income that are characteristic of business cycles. Understanding the difference between potential and actual growth is crucial for policymakers and economists to design effective strategies for promoting sustainable economic development. 

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Differences Between Actual and Potential Growth: Output Gaps and the Business Cycle

Actual Growth: Actual growth, also known as real GDP growth, refers to the actual rate of increase in an economy's output of goods and services over a specific period, such as a quarter or a year. It represents the current level of economic activity and is measured using the country's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Actual growth can be positive or negative, indicating whether the economy is expanding or contracting.

Potential Growth: Potential growth, on the other hand, represents the maximum sustainable rate at which an economy can grow without generating inflationary or deflationary pressures. It is determined by the economy's long-term productive capacity, influenced by factors such as labor force growth, capital investment, technological advancements, and productivity improvements.

Output Gap: The difference between actual and potential GDP is called the output gap. It helps economists assess the economy's position in the business cycle and determine whether it is operating above or below its potential level.

Positive Output Gap: A positive output gap occurs when actual GDP exceeds potential GDP. This situation suggests that the economy is operating at an above-average level of output, leading to resource shortages, rising inflationary pressures, and potentially overheating. Positive output gaps are characteristic of economic booms and expansionary phases of the business cycle.

Negative Output Gap: A negative output gap occurs when actual GDP falls below potential GDP. In this case, the economy is operating at a level below its full capacity, resulting in unemployment and idle resources. Negative output gaps are associated with economic contractions and recessions.

Business Cycle: The business cycle represents the fluctuations in economic activity over time, characterized by periods of expansion (economic boom), contraction (recession), and eventual recovery. The business cycle is not a regular or predictable pattern, and its duration and intensity can vary.

During the expansion phase, actual GDP growth is higher than potential GDP, leading to a positive output gap and a period of economic growth. Conversely, during the contraction phase, actual GDP growth falls below potential GDP, leading to a negative output gap and a period of economic recession.

2. What is Meant by the Term 'Recession'?

Recession: A recession is a significant and widespread decline in economic activity across an economy that lasts for an extended period. It is typically characterized by a contraction in real GDP, rising unemployment, declining consumer spending, reduced business investment, and decreased production and industrial output.

Key features of a recession:

1. Negative GDP Growth: During a recession, the real GDP of a country declines for at least two consecutive quarters, indicating a contraction in economic output.

2. Rising Unemployment: As economic activity slows down, businesses may cut jobs, leading to an increase in unemployment rates.

3. Reduced Consumer and Business Spending: During a recession, consumer confidence tends to decline, leading to reduced spending on goods and services. Additionally, businesses may reduce their investments and capital expenditures.

4. Decline in Industrial Production: A recession often results in decreased industrial production as demand for goods and services decreases.

5. Financial Market Instability: Recessionary periods may also lead to financial market instability, including stock market declines and credit contractions.

Governments and central banks often respond to recessions with expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic activity and promote recovery.

Conclusion:

Actual growth refers to the real GDP growth experienced in an economy over a specific period, while potential growth represents the maximum sustainable growth rate without generating inflationary pressures. The output gap, which is the difference between actual and potential GDP, helps economists assess the economy's position in the business cycle. Positive output gaps indicate economic expansion and potential inflationary pressures, while negative output gaps signify economic contractions and recessions. A recession is a significant and prolonged contraction in economic activity characterized by declining GDP, rising unemployment, reduced consumer and business spending, and financial market instability. Policymakers implement measures to mitigate the impact of recessions and promote economic recovery.

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Importance of Factors of Economic Growth:

Understanding the causes of economic growth is essential for policymakers and learners to grasp how economies expand and improve living standards. Let's link the factors mentioned above to their importance in driving growth:

1. Quantity of Factors of Production: Increasing the quantity of factors of production, such as labor and capital, allows economies to produce more goods and services, leading to higher GDP and economic growth.

2. Quality of Factors of Production: A skilled and educated workforce enhances productivity and innovation, leading to higher economic growth rates. Investing in human capital is crucial for sustained growth.

3. Efficiency of Factors of Production: Efficiently utilizing resources results in higher productivity and output. This is crucial for long-term economic growth and competitiveness.

4. Technological Advancements: Technological progress drives innovation, increases productivity, and enables the production of higher-quality goods and services at a lower cost, fueling economic growth.

5. Investment and Capital Accumulation: Investment in physical and human capital boosts productivity, job creation, and economic expansion. Accumulating capital is crucial for long-term growth.

6. Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Innovation and entrepreneurship drive economic growth by introducing new products, services, and industries, leading to increased productivity and expansion.

7. Factor Market Flexibility: Flexible factor markets facilitate resource allocation, enabling efficient use of labor and capital, contributing to economic growth.

8. Government Policies: Well-designed government policies can create an enabling environment for investment, innovation, education, and infrastructure development, fostering economic growth.

9. Global Trade and Investment: Engaging in international trade and attracting foreign direct investment can provide access to new markets and technologies, driving economic growth.

The Role of Policy Instruments in Promoting Growth:

Policymakers can use various policy instruments to stimulate economic growth:

1. Monetary Policy: Central banks can influence economic growth by adjusting interest rates and money supply. Lowering interest rates encourages borrowing and investment, boosting economic activity.

2. Fiscal Policy: Governments can use fiscal policy to support growth through changes in taxation and government spending. Increasing government spending on infrastructure projects can create jobs and stimulate economic activity.

3. Investment in Education and Research: Governments can invest in education and research to enhance the quality of human capital and foster innovation, driving economic growth.

4. Infrastructure Development: Investing in infrastructure such as transportation, communication, and energy systems can improve productivity and support economic growth.

5. Incentives for Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Governments can provide incentives and support for entrepreneurs and innovative businesses to drive technological advancements and economic expansion.

6. Trade Agreements and Policies: Promoting international trade through trade agreements and policies can open new markets, increase exports, and drive economic growth.

7. Regulatory Reforms: Streamlining regulations and reducing bureaucratic barriers can improve business conditions, attract investment, and support economic growth.

Conclusion:

Understanding the importance of the factors driving economic growth empowers learners to discuss their role in promoting sustainable development. Policymakers have various policy instruments at their disposal to create an enabling environment for economic growth. By employing these policies effectively and considering the interplay of different factors, governments can foster long-term economic expansion, job creation, and improved living standards.

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Benefits of Growth:

1. Increased Standard of Living: Economic growth leads to higher real GDP per capita, improving the standard of living for individuals as they have access to more goods and services.

2. Job Creation: Economic growth often creates new job opportunities, reducing unemployment rates and increasing workforce participation.

3. Reduced Poverty: With increased economic growth, more resources are available for poverty alleviation programs, reducing the number of people living in poverty.

4. Higher Government Revenue: Economic growth results in increased tax revenues for the government, which can be used to fund public services and infrastructure development.

5. Investment in Education and Healthcare: Economic growth enables governments to invest more in education and healthcare, leading to a better-educated and healthier workforce.

6. Innovation and Technological Advancements: Growth fosters innovation, leading to technological advancements that improve productivity and enhance overall economic performance.

Costs of Growth:

1. Income Inequality: Economic growth may not be evenly distributed, leading to an increase in income inequality. The benefits of growth may primarily accrue to the wealthy, leaving many individuals behind.

2. Environmental Degradation: Rapid economic growth can result in increased resource consumption and pollution, leading to environmental degradation and negative impacts on ecosystems.

3. Resource Depletion: High growth rates can lead to the depletion of natural resources, which could compromise the ability of future generations to meet their needs.

4. Social Disruptions: Economic growth can bring social disruptions as people migrate to urban areas in search of job opportunities, leading to challenges in housing, infrastructure, and social services.

5. Inflationary Pressures: High economic growth can generate demand pressures, leading to inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of money.

6. Overemphasis on Materialism: Relentless pursuit of economic growth can create a culture focused solely on materialism and consumerism, neglecting other aspects of human well-being.

Evaluation of Benefits:

1. Distribution of Benefits: The benefits of economic growth may not be distributed evenly among the population, leading to income inequality. Policymakers should implement targeted measures to ensure more inclusive growth, such as progressive taxation and social welfare programs.

2. Opportunity Costs: Economic growth often requires allocating resources to certain sectors, which may come at the expense of investing in other critical areas, such as education, healthcare, or environmental protection.

3. Sustainability of Growth: Growth that depletes natural resources and damages the environment may not be sustainable in the long run. Policymakers should prioritize sustainable development to ensure that future generations can also enjoy a high standard of living.

4. Conflicts with Other Policy Objectives: Economic growth may conflict with other policy objectives, such as environmental conservation or reducing inflation. Policymakers must strike a balance between these objectives and use appropriate policy tools to manage trade-offs.

Conclusion:

Economic growth brings numerous benefits, including improved living standards, job creation, and poverty reduction. However, it also has costs, such as income inequality, environmental degradation, and resource depletion. Policymakers need to consider the distribution of benefits, opportunity costs, sustainability, and potential conflicts with other policy objectives to ensure that growth is inclusive, equitable, and environmentally sustainable. Implementing targeted policies and reforms can help maximize the benefits of growth while minimizing its adverse effects on society and the environment.

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Conflicts with Other Policy Objectives (expanded):

1. Inflation Control vs. Growth: Central banks aim to control inflation to maintain price stability. However, during periods of rapid economic growth, demand pressures can lead to higher inflation rates. Policymakers may face a dilemma between promoting growth and controlling inflation, as contractionary measures to control inflation can potentially slow down economic expansion.

2. Environmental Conservation vs. Growth: Economic growth often involves increased resource consumption and industrial activity, leading to environmental degradation and greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental conservation and sustainability objectives may conflict with growth policies, as some industries or practices may negatively impact the environment.

3. Income Inequality vs. Growth: While economic growth can contribute to poverty reduction, it may not always lead to equitable income distribution. In many cases, the benefits of growth disproportionately benefit the wealthy, leading to an increase in income inequality. Policymakers may need to implement redistributive policies to address this disparity.

4. Social Welfare vs. Growth: Rapid growth may not always translate into improved social welfare for all segments of the population. Inadequate social safety nets or insufficient investment in social services may hinder the equitable distribution of the benefits of growth.

5. Fiscal Discipline vs. Growth: High growth rates can sometimes lead to increased government spending and borrowing. Maintaining fiscal discipline and managing public debt become challenging during periods of robust economic growth, as policymakers may be tempted to overspend and jeopardize fiscal sustainability.

6. Global Trade vs. Domestic Industries: Promoting growth through global trade and international competition may benefit consumers with cheaper imports but could negatively impact domestic industries that struggle to compete. Policymakers may need to strike a balance between supporting domestic industries and allowing consumers to benefit from international trade.

7. Financial Stability vs. Growth: In some cases, excessive credit expansion and risk-taking during periods of strong growth can lead to financial instability and bubbles in asset markets. Policymakers must monitor and regulate financial markets to prevent excessive risk-taking that could undermine financial stability.

Managing Conflicts and Trade-offs:

Effectively managing conflicts between economic growth and other policy objectives requires a balanced and integrated approach to policymaking:

1. Targeted Policies: Policymakers can implement targeted policies to address income inequality and ensure that the benefits of growth are more evenly distributed among the population.

2. Environmental Regulations: Stricter environmental regulations and incentives for green technologies can promote sustainable growth while mitigating environmental impacts.

3. Social Safety Nets: Strong social safety nets and investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure can ensure that growth translates into improved social welfare for all citizens.

4. Fiscal Responsibility: Maintaining fiscal discipline during periods of growth can create fiscal buffers for future downturns and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.

5. Regulatory Framework: Policymakers should establish a robust regulatory framework to prevent excessive risk-taking and maintain financial stability while promoting growth.

6. Long-Term Vision: Policymakers need to consider the long-term consequences of growth and focus on sustainable development, balancing short-term economic gains with long-term well-being and environmental protection.

Conclusion:

Economic growth can sometimes conflict with other policy objectives, such as inflation control, environmental conservation, income equality, and fiscal responsibility. Policymakers must carefully manage these conflicts by implementing targeted policies, promoting sustainability, and considering the long-term implications of growth. Balancing these objectives effectively is crucial for achieving inclusive and sustainable economic growth that benefits society as a whole.

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Strengths of GDP as a Measure of Economic Growth:

1. Widely Used Indicator: GDP is one of the most widely used indicators of economic growth and overall economic performance. It provides a standardized measure that allows for easy comparisons between different countries and over time.

2. Comprehensive Measurement: GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced within an economy, providing a comprehensive view of economic activity. It includes consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports, covering various aspects of economic performance.

3. Real and Nominal GDP: GDP is reported in both real and nominal terms, allowing for adjustments to account for inflation and enabling comparisons of economic growth over time in constant prices.

4. Basis for Policy Decisions: Policymakers often use GDP as a key metric to guide their decisions on fiscal and monetary policies. High GDP growth rates are generally associated with a healthy economy.

5. Indicator of Standard of Living: Higher GDP per capita is generally correlated with a higher standard of living for the population, as it reflects greater economic output and income potential.

Weaknesses of GDP as a Measure of Economic Growth:

1. Excludes Non-Market Activities: GDP does not account for non-market activities, such as household work and volunteer services, which contribute to economic well-being but are not captured in official economic measurements.

2. Ignores Income Distribution: GDP does not consider income distribution, so it may not reflect how growth benefits different segments of society. Economic growth could be concentrated among the wealthy, leading to increased income inequality.

3. Quality of Life and Welfare: GDP focuses solely on economic output and does not directly measure factors like quality of life, environmental sustainability, health, education, and happiness, which are crucial aspects of human welfare.

4. Ignores Negative Externalities: GDP does not account for negative externalities, such as environmental pollution and resource depletion, which can have adverse effects on well-being and future economic sustainability.

5. Informal Economy and Shadow Economy: GDP may not fully capture the economic activity in the informal economy and the shadow economy, leading to an underestimation of the true economic output.

6. Economic Structure: GDP does not provide insights into the structure of the economy, including the composition of output and the types of goods and services produced.

7. Neglects Unpaid Work: GDP does not consider the value of unpaid work, such as household chores and care work, which can be significant contributions to society but are not accounted for in economic measurements.

Conclusion:

GDP is a widely used and valuable indicator of economic growth and overall economic performance. It provides a standardized measure for comparing economic activity across countries and over time. However, it has several limitations, including its exclusion of non-market activities, income distribution, quality of life, negative externalities, and the informal economy. Policymakers and economists should use GDP in conjunction with other indicators and measures to gain a more comprehensive understanding of economic well-being and to develop policies that promote inclusive and sustainable growth.