Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his allies are making decidedly ominous statements. While announcing a relief package for the agricultural sector, Mr Sharif suddenly veered off his subject at the Convention Centre in Islamabad and started talking of “those who would like to overthrow the government and rule directly themselves”, followed by a couple of similar sentences meaning similar things.
If this statement wasn’t oblique enough, he then spoke of how neither he nor his family was using state resources to line their pockets. Indeed, he added, “all our personal expenditures come from our own personal resources and there cannot even be a whiff of corruption attached to us”. The linking of “corruption” with an intervention against the government has clinched the suspicion that Mr Sharif believes that sections of the military establishment are still out to “get him” and his government. This time, it is suspected, by initiating action against allegedly corrupt elements in the PMLN federal and Punjab provincial governments as they have done in Sindh against the PPP government by effectively taking over the reins of power in the NAB and FIA.
Mr Sharif’s ANP ally, Asfandyar Wali Khan, was more forthright. When asked if he foresaw a military intervention by year’s end – because of carefully planted stories of GHQ’s anger at the continuing corrupt practices of ruling politicians – he warned that “if, God forbid, such an intervention were to occur, it would lead to the break up of Pakistan”. Stronger words on the subject have not been uttered nor such a bleak scenario publicly articulated.
For an explanation, we need only to look at the recent behaviour of the one political leader who is desperately seeking a short cut to power on the back of the military: Imran Khan. His dharna last year was based on the theory of the third umpire putting an end to Nawaz Sharif’s innings and paving the way for Imran Khan’s entry into Islamabad. This is now an established fact. Several credible reports of the involvement of the then ISI chief, Lt Gen Zaheer ul Islam, in this conspiracy are circulating in the media. But Imran Khan’s failure hasn’t deterred him.
Now Khan is threatening to forcibly eject the four provincial election commissioners from office – they hold constitutional positions and cannot be ousted under any circumstances short of resigning themselves — by staging a mass rally in front of the ECP’s office in Islamabad despite a ban on such rallies in the capital. He is also defying the code of conduct of the ECP forbidding government and opposition leaders from canvassing on behalf of their candidates in local elections in the Punjab. He successfully challenged the ECP decision in the Lahore High Court. But the ECP has obtained a stay from the Supreme Court and ordered the Chief Secretaries and IGPs of all the provinces to ensure strict implementation of the ECP’s code of conduct. The PMLN has said it will abide by the law. But Imran Khan has said he won’t because he considers the law illegal. So the stage is being set for violent clashes between the PTI and the Punjab and Islamabad administrations of the PMLN.
If Imran Khan can create violent disturbances in Punjab or Islamabad during the local elections in October-November, we may expect to witness a repeat dharna-type performance that attempts to draw the military into the fray. The PTI has plastered over 20,000 banners in Lahore’s NA 122 with candidate Aleem Khan’s picture alongside that of the army chief General Raheel Sharif. And Imran Khan has publicly called upon the Rangers and the military establishment to carry out accountability of corrupt politicians and bureaucrats in Punjab, a demand that is clearly unconstitutional.
Finally, a rather sinister development is already making waves in the media. This is the question of whether or not Gen Raheel Sharif deserves an extension in service before he retires at the end of next year – “for doing such a great job as the saviour of Pakistan against the scourge of terrorism and corruption” – unlike his predecessor General Kayani. It may be recalled that in the latter months of his first tenure, Gen Kayani destabilized the PPP government on at least two occasions even as a debate about his extension was raging the media.
General Raheel Sharif is a soldier’s soldier. It is inconceivable that he and his lieutenants are involved in destabilizing the PMLN government or that he is maneuvering to seek an extension in tenure. But there is no doubt that an ill will is blowing in the direction of Islamabad and none other than Imran Khan is huffing and puffing again to bring the house down.
PM Nawaz Sharif is rightly sensitive to Intel data that has led him to allude to another dharna-type conspiracy in the offing. We should know how the game is unfolding by observing Imran Khan’s course of action.
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