Which economy did best in 2023?

 From The Economist

image: the economist/shutterstock

Dec 17th 2023

Almost everyone expected a global recession in 2023, as central bankers fought high inflation. They were wrong. Global gdp has probably grown by 3%. Job markets have held up. Inflation is on the way down. Stockmarkets have risen by 20%.

But this aggregate performance conceals wide variation. The Economist has compiled data on five economic and financial indicators—inflation, “inflation breadth”, gdp, jobs and stockmarket performance—for 35 mostly rich countries. We have ranked them according to how well they have done on these measures, creating an overall score for each. The table below shows the rankings, and some surprising results.

Top of the charts, for the second year running, is Greece—a remarkable result for an economy that was until recently a byword for mismanagement. Aside from South Korea, many of the other standout performers are in the Americas. The United States comes third. Canada and Chile are not far behind. Meanwhile, lots of the sluggards are in northern Europe, including Britain, Germany, Sweden and, bringing up the rear, Finland.

Tackling rising prices was the big challenge in 2023. Our first measure looks at “core” inflation, which excludes volatile components such as energy and food and is therefore a good indicator of underlying inflationary pressure. Japan and South Korea have kept a lid on prices. In Switzerland core prices rose by just 1.3% year on year. Elsewhere in Europe, though, many countries still face serious pressure. In Hungary core inflation is running at around 11% year on year. Finland is also struggling.

In most countries inflation is becoming less entrenched—as measured by “inflation breadth”, which calculates the share of the items in the consumer-price basket where prices are rising by more than 2% year on year. Central banks in places like Chile and South Korea increased interest rates aggressively in 2022, sooner than many others in the rich world, and now seem to be reaping the benefits. In South Korea inflation breadth has fallen from 73% to 60%. Central bankers in America and Canada, where inflation breadth has dropped even more sharply, can take some credit, too.

Our next two measures—growth in employment and gdp—hint at the extent to which economies are delivering for ordinary people. Nowhere fared spectacularly well in 2023. But only a small minority of countries saw gdp decline. Ireland was the worst performer, with a drop of 4.1% (take this with a pinch of salt: there are big problems with the measurement of Irish gdp). Britain and Germany also performed poorly. Germany is struggling with the fallout from an energy-price shock and rising competition from imported Chinese cars. Britain is still dealing with the consequences of Brexit.

America did well on both gdp and employment. It has benefited from record-high energy production as well as the effects of a generous fiscal stimulus implemented in 2020 and 2021. The world’s largest economy may have pulled up other countries. Canada’s employment has risen smartly. Notwithstanding its war with Hamas, Israel, which counts America as its largest trading partner, comes fourth in the overall ranking.

You might think that the American stockmarket, filled with firms poised to benefit from the revolution in artificial intelligence, would have done well. In fact, adjusted for inflation it is a middling performer. The Australian stockmarket, filled with commodities firms managing a comedown from high prices in 2022, underperformed. Share prices in Finland have slumped. Japan’s firms, by contrast, are experiencing something of a renaissance. The country’s stockmarket is one of the best performers this year, rising in real terms by nearly 20%.

But for glorious equity returns, look thousands of miles west—to Greece. There the real value of the stockmarket has increased by over 40%. Investors have looked afresh at Greek companies as the government implements a series of pro-market reforms. Although the country is still a lot poorer than it was before its almighty bust in the early 2010s, in a recent statement the imf, once Greece’s nemesis, praised “the digital transformation of the economy” and “increasing market competition”. While underperforming Finns can console themselves this Christmas by drowning their sorrows in their underwear (or getting päntsdrunk, as it is known locally), the rest of the world should raise a glass of ouzo to this most unlikely of champions. 

Critical Thinking 5: A Critical Examination of Macroeconomic Indicators: "What Gets Measured Gets Managed"

The phrase "what gets measured gets managed" holds significant relevance in the realm of macroeconomics, where governments, policymakers, and analysts rely heavily on quantifiable indicators to monitor and steer national economies. While this concept underscores the importance of data-driven governance and decision-making, it also warrants a nuanced examination of its advantages and potential drawbacks. The critical analysis of macroeconomic indicators highlights how their application can lead to effective management as well as unintended mismanagement.

Advantages of "What Gets Measured Gets Managed":

Informed Policy Decisions: 

Macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation rates, provide policymakers with real-time insights into the overall health of an economy. These indicators facilitate evidence-based policy formulation, enabling governments to make informed decisions to stabilize or stimulate economic growth.

Accountability and Transparency: 

Transparent reporting and monitoring of macroeconomic indicators enhance accountability among policymakers. Regular updates on indicators allow the public to hold governments accountable for economic outcomes, fostering a democratic check on economic management.

Early Detection of Imbalances: 

Timely measurement of indicators helps identify potential imbalances or vulnerabilities in an economy. For instance, rising inflation may prompt policymakers to adjust monetary policy to prevent overheating.

Criticisms and Drawbacks of "What Gets Measured Gets Managed":

Misleading Focus on Short-Term Metrics: 

Relying heavily on certain indicators, like GDP growth, can create an overemphasis on short-term economic performance. Governments might prioritize immediate gains at the expense of long-term sustainability or environmental concerns.

Neglect of Qualitative Aspects: 

Macroeconomic indicators often fail to capture qualitative dimensions of well-being, such as income inequality, quality of life, and environmental health. Overreliance on indicators may lead to ignoring important social and environmental issues.

Potential for Manipulation: 

Governments may attempt to manipulate indicators to create a favorable narrative, potentially distorting economic reality. This can undermine the integrity of data-driven decision-making and erode public trust.

Unintended Consequences: 

Managing specific indicators without considering broader context can lead to unintended consequences. For example, excessive focus on reducing unemployment might result in inflationary pressures if not balanced with monetary policy.

Complex Interactions: 

Macroeconomic indicators often interact in complex ways, making it challenging to predict outcomes accurately. Overreliance on a single indicator might oversimplify the intricacies of economic dynamics.


Balancing Act: Toward Informed Management:

The critical application of the "what gets measured gets managed" concept in macroeconomics requires a balanced approach that acknowledges both the benefits and limitations of relying on indicators. Policymakers should recognize the need to supplement quantitative measures with qualitative analysis to ensure comprehensive economic management. Moreover, the active involvement of experts and the public in the interpretation of indicators can provide checks against potential mismanagement.

In conclusion, the concept of "what gets measured gets managed" in the realm of macroeconomic indicators embodies a double-edged sword. While it empowers decision-makers with data-driven insights and accountability mechanisms, it also demands careful consideration of the pitfalls that overreliance on indicators can entail. Achieving an equilibrium between quantitative measures and qualitative considerations is crucial to harnessing the full potential of macroeconomic indicators while minimizing the risks of mismanagement. This critical approach underscores the importance of well-informed and context-sensitive economic governance in today's complex and interconnected world.

A Level Economics 83: Costs of Inflation

Inflation, the sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services over time, can have various costs that impact different aspects of the economy. These costs include redistributive effects, macroeconomic effects, and efficiency effects.

1. Redistributive Effects: Inflation can lead to redistributive effects, meaning it redistributes wealth and income among different groups in the economy. Those on fixed incomes, such as retirees and low-income individuals, may suffer the most during periods of high inflation. Their purchasing power decreases as the prices of goods and services rise faster than their income. On the other hand, borrowers may benefit from inflation, as the value of their debts erodes over time. This income redistribution can lead to social and economic inequalities.

2. Macroeconomic Effects: High and unpredictable inflation can create macroeconomic instability and uncertainty, impacting various economic objectives:

• Price Stability: One of the main macroeconomic objectives is maintaining price stability. High inflation erodes the value of money, making it difficult for individuals and businesses to plan and invest, hindering overall economic stability.
• Economic Growth: High inflation can hinder economic growth. Uncertainty and erosion of purchasing power discourage investment, leading to reduced economic output and lower GDP growth rates.
• Employment: Persistent high inflation can lead to reduced business confidence and investment, resulting in lower job creation and labor demand. This can impact the macroeconomic objective of achieving full employment.
• External Balance: Inflation affects a country's external balance by impacting export competitiveness and import prices. High inflation can lead to a deteriorating trade balance, hindering the achievement of external equilibrium.
• Financial Stability: Inflation can impact financial stability by influencing real interest rates, asset prices, and overall confidence in the financial system. Maintaining stable inflation contributes to overall financial stability.

3. Efficiency Effects: Inflation can lead to efficiency effects, causing distortions in resource allocation and decision-making:

• Distorted Relative Prices: High inflation can distort relative prices, making it challenging for businesses and individuals to make optimal economic decisions. Individuals may be encouraged to spend rather than save, leading to suboptimal allocation of resources.
• Shoe-Leather Costs: High inflation increases transaction costs as individuals and businesses make more frequent trips to banks and financial institutions to protect their wealth from losing value. This results in higher administrative costs and reduced efficiency.
• Menu Costs: Inflation can impose menu costs on businesses, which refers to the costs associated with changing prices. Frequent price changes can be time-consuming and costly for businesses, reducing their efficiency.

Evaluation of Inflation Costs:

• Moderate Inflation: Moderate and stable inflation can be beneficial for an economy as it can signal a growing economy and encourage investment. Additionally, if inflation is expected and well-anchored, it may not have severe redistributive effects, and businesses can better plan for the future.
• Hyperinflation: Extremely high inflation, such as hyperinflation, can have catastrophic consequences for an economy, leading to a loss of confidence in the currency and a breakdown of economic activity. In such cases, the costs of inflation far outweigh any perceived benefits.
• Inflation Targeting: Many central banks adopt inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. They aim to keep inflation within a specific target range. By doing so, they seek to balance the costs and benefits of inflation, ensuring price stability while promoting sustainable economic growth.

Conclusion:

The costs of inflation are multifaceted, impacting different aspects of the economy. High and unpredictable inflation can lead to redistributive effects, hinder macroeconomic stability, and cause distortions in resource allocation and decision-making. Policymakers must carefully manage inflation and inflation expectations to achieve their macroeconomic objectives effectively. Maintaining price stability, sustainable economic growth, and financial stability are essential considerations when evaluating the costs of inflation and formulating appropriate economic policies.

A Level Economics 77: Macroeconomic Objectives

 Government policy objectives are the goals and targets set by the government to guide their actions and influence the direction of the economy. These objectives typically focus on achieving stable and sustainable economic growth, low inflation, low unemployment, equilibrium in the current account, and promoting social objectives such as reducing inequality and enhancing competitiveness.

Main Macroeconomic Objectives:

1. Low Inflation: Inflation is the rate at which the general price level of goods and services in an economy rises over time. Low inflation is a primary objective for governments as it helps maintain price stability and the purchasing power of money. Moderate inflation encourages spending and investment, but high and volatile inflation erodes consumer and business confidence and can lead to economic instability.

2. Low Levels of Unemployment: Governments aim to achieve full employment or the lowest possible level of unemployment in the economy. Low unemployment not only improves the well-being of citizens but also contributes to economic growth by increasing consumer spending and boosting overall productivity.

3. Sustainable Economic Growth: Sustainable economic growth is an essential objective to ensure long-term prosperity and improved living standards. Steady economic growth allows for more job opportunities, higher incomes, and increased tax revenues for the government. Sustainable growth is typically measured by the annual percentage change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

4. Equilibrium in the Current Account of the Balance of Payments: The balance of payments reflects a country's economic transactions with the rest of the world. Equilibrium in the current account means that the value of exports is equal to the value of imports, indicating a healthy and balanced trade position. Achieving balance in the current account is essential to prevent excessive reliance on foreign borrowing and maintain stability in the economy.

Promoting Social Objectives:

1. Reducing Inequality: Governments often aim to reduce income and wealth inequality within their societies. Policymakers use progressive taxation, social welfare programs, education and training initiatives, and labor market reforms to address income disparities and create a more equitable distribution of resources.

2. Enhancing Competitiveness: Competitiveness is crucial for the long-term growth and success of an economy. Governments work to create a conducive business environment, invest in infrastructure, promote innovation, and foster a skilled workforce to enhance the competitiveness of domestic industries in the global market.

Possible Conflicts and Trade-offs:

1. Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off: There can be a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment, as described by the Phillips curve. Policymakers may face the challenge of choosing between policies that aim to reduce inflation and those that aim to reduce unemployment in the short term. However, in the long run, this trade-off disappears, as attempting to keep unemployment below its natural rate may lead to accelerating inflation.

2. Growth-Inflation Trade-off: Policies aimed at stimulating economic growth, such as expansionary fiscal or monetary policies, may lead to higher inflation. Controlling inflation might require contractionary policies that could potentially slow down economic growth.

3. External Imbalance and Domestic Goals: Pursuing domestic objectives, such as high economic growth, could lead to imbalances in the balance of payments. For example, strong domestic demand might increase imports and lead to a trade deficit, affecting the equilibrium in the current account.

4. Competitiveness-Inequality Trade-off: Some policies aimed at enhancing competitiveness may lead to increased income inequality. For instance, labor market reforms that encourage flexibility and wage moderation may result in higher profits for businesses but could lead to stagnant wages for workers.

Government Efforts to Achieve Objectives:

Governments use a mix of policy tools to pursue their objectives:

1. Monetary Policy: Central banks use monetary policy to control the money supply and influence interest rates, aiming to achieve price stability and economic growth.

2. Fiscal Policy: Governments use fiscal policy to influence the economy through changes in taxation and government spending. Fiscal policy can be expansionary or contractionary, depending on the economic conditions and policy objectives.

3. Exchange Rate Policy: Governments may use exchange rate policies to manage their external trade position and support domestic industries' competitiveness.

4. Social Welfare Programs: Governments implement various social welfare programs, such as unemployment benefits, education subsidies, and healthcare services, to address inequality and improve social well-being.

Conclusion:

Government policy objectives encompass macroeconomic goals such as stable economic growth, low inflation, low unemployment, and equilibrium in the balance of payments. Additionally, they include social objectives like reducing inequality and enhancing competitiveness. Policymakers face trade-offs and challenges when pursuing these objectives, and they must carefully balance their policy choices to achieve overall economic stability, growth, and social well-being. Effective coordination of various policy instruments is crucial to ensure that both macroeconomic and social objectives are achieved harmoniously.