Will it be a downsized Dubai that emerges from pandemic?

Simeon Kerr in Dubai and Andrew England in The Financial Times

Dubai’s leaders headed into 2020 brimming with confidence. After four years of tepid growth, that had fuelled questions about the durability of the Gulf trade hub’s business model, the optimism was inspired by the emirate’s hosting of Expo 2020, which was predicted to draw 25m visitors and reassert Dubai’s position on the international stage.  

On January 29, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, Dubai’s leader, said the expo would mark the start of a 50-year phase of “achievements” for the United Arab Emirates and “offer new hope for creating a better tomorrow”. But just as he was inaugurating Al-Wasl plaza, at the heart of the expo site, the UAE was making a separate announcement — a portent for the grim reality ahead — the seven-member federation had recorded the Middle East’s first case of Covid-19. 

The economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, coupled with the spectacular collapse of crude prices, have wrought havoc across the oil-rich Gulf as lockdowns strangle businesses and finance ministers cut state spending. Few in the region are as exposed to the crisis as Dubai; the strengths that have long made the city stand out — and put the UAE on the map — make it more vulnerable.  

For decades, Dubai’s success has been built on its transformation from pearl-diving backwater into global entrepot with some of the world’s busiest ports and airports, as well as a financial centre that hosts top international banks — the Middle East’s version of Singapore or Hong Kong.  

But today the emirate’s main economic drivers — trade, transportation, tourism, retail and real estate — are slammed shut with the world in lockdown. Dubai has minimal oil resources, and lacks the financial muscle of its wealthier neighbours such as Abu Dhabi and Qatar to cushion the economic impact of Covid-19. Expo 2020, which was scheduled to open in October, has been pushed back 12 months — joining a long list of global events that have fallen victim to the pandemic.  

The global crisis has raised concerns about the emirate’s high debt burden — which the IMF found last year “exceeds 100 per cent of Dubai gross domestic product”, including government-related entities — and revived painful memories. During the 2008-09 crisis, Dubai came to the brink of defaulting and was forced to downsize and restructure distressed state entities.  

It survived, and later thrived, largely thanks to $20bn in bailout loans underpinned by Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s wealthy capital. But that crisis was primarily contained within Dubai’s real estate sector and government-related entities, which had gorged on debt as the city expanded.  

This time the impact is broader and, in a worst-case scenario, could result in a slimmed down version of Dubai Inc.  

“There is no choice but restructurings, downsizing, mergers,” says Karen Young, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank. “Staff numbers from cleaners to interior designers, accountants to general managers, will be affected.” 

Even before the crisis struck, Dubai was in a downturn. Property prices had slumped more than 30 per cent from 2014 highs, and bankers and analysts were speculating whether the “build it and they will come” model had run its course.  

The model is now expected to come under its severest financial pressure yet and force the emirate to re-evaluate how it operates. Government officials accept it will not be “business as usual”. 

“The global economic situation will not return to what it was,” Sami al-Qamzi, director-general of Dubai’s economic department, told local media in April, adding that the emirate could respond quickly to challenges. “The strategy and economic model will be adjusted.”

Minimising the exodus 

Instead of people arriving in vast numbers for Expo 2020, a mass exodus of expatriates — who make up the bulk of Dubai’s 3.3m population — is more likely. 

Foreigners account for 98 per cent of Dubai’s private sector workforce — mainly migrant workers from south Asia — and those without jobs are unlikely to remain for long. To ease the burden, the UAE has extended all residency visas until the end of the year, allowing redundant expatriates to look for work or wait for flights home to restart. 

Diplomats say hundreds of thousands of foreign workers risk losing their jobs across the UAE in the next few months. Around 260,000 Indian and Pakistani workers have already applied for repatriation as employers try to offload staff in sectors ranging from construction to retail and tourism.   

“We’re looking at a minimum population contraction of 10 per cent for the year,” Nasser al-Shaikh, a former head of Dubai’s department of finance, tweeted in April. 

Farhan, who has been driving taxis for eight years, used to send $300 a month to his family in Pakistan. But last month his earnings collapsed to $60. Even with a loan of $110 from his employer, he is borrowing from friends to survive. “Corona has stopped everything,” he says. “So many drivers need to go home.” 

The hardship extends into the white collar workforce. A fifth of the Indians applying to return home are professionals, the Indian embassy says. “I will give it two months and then take my family home,” says one Indian retail consultant on unpaid leave. 

Hasnain Malik of Tellimer, an emerging markets research company, says Dubai should consider expanding access to long-term residency for expatriates, who currently have limited rights to remain. That could boost longer-term investment in property and businesses, as well as consumer spending. 

“To return to high economic growth in a world where trade, travel and tourism are under threat, new technology is displacing traditional business models, and regional rivals are catching up, Dubai may have to contemplate a much more competitive cost of living and operating,” he says.  

Big Brother Bailout

As in 2008-09, Abu Dhabi is expected to ride to Dubai’s rescue if needed. But bankers believe any support could come with “quid pro quos”, such as asset sales and mergers involving Dubai’s state-affiliated entities.  

The two emirates have long been brotherly competitors, and Abu Dhabi's ambitious diversification agenda has raised the capital's profile over the past 15 years. The 2009 debt crisis, however, played out in the glare of international scrutiny, was a humbling experience for the Dubai brand. 

Both emirates control their own utilities, airlines, ports and stock markets despite being members of a small federation of 9.6m people. “There is likely to be consolidation, it will be forced consolidation, wrapped nicely under the PR strategy of the [UAE], and it's all a matter of time,” says a senior Gulf-based banker.  

Jihad Azour, the IMF’s regional head, notes that many government-related entities have restructured their operations and “deleveraged significantly” in recent years. But he says “some of them still have large levels of liabilities and need to be monitored carefully”.  

Capital Economics says some state-owned enterprises may struggle to service their debts. It estimates that over the next three years they face a total of $21.3bn in repayments — equal to 19.4 per cent of GDP. The consultancy, which predicts a “major crunch point” in 2023 when another $30bn of debt matures, says the scale of the downturn could see strains emerge sooner. 

Much will depend on how long global travel and trade remain frozen. Thaddeus Best, a sovereign risk analyst at Moody’s, says those state-affiliated entities covered by the rating agency have adequate liquidity and moderate leverage, and are expected to continue servicing their debts. Many, he says, should be able to reschedule loans with local banks, if needed, while paying bondholders. 

A large portion of the emirate’s outstanding bonds are held by the Investment Corporation of Dubai, a sovereign fund which owns high-quality assets, such as Emirates airline, and stakes in lender Emirates NBD and developer Emaar. Mr Best says issuers, such as ICD, could tap bond markets later in the year, “when some semblance of normality returns”. 

The government is already in talks with more than 10 lenders for five-year loans of up to Dh2bn ($540m) each and private placement of bonds that avoid the glare of public debt markets. “They see these as bridge financing,” says one person briefed on the scheme, “and then [plan to] issue bonds in due course.” 

 Tough shutdown 

The UAE stopped passenger air traffic — the lifeblood of the economy — in late March. Dubai, a transit point between east and west, is a popular destination for Chinese tourists — the first cases reported in January were family members who had travelled from Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak in China.  

More restrictive measures were introduced, with Dubai requiring residents to obtain a police permit before leaving their homes. Covid-19 patients have been treated for free whether or not they hold health insurance. Residents broadly welcomed the decisive measures and the authorities’ zero tolerance approach, including imposing more than 50,000 fines on lockdown violators. 

A nationwide campaign, backed by a coronavirus testing laboratory in Abu Dhabi that has the largest processing capacity outside China, has tested more than one in 10 of the UAE’s population, focusing on low-income areas where migrant workers live in cramped conditions. Carrying out the third highest number of tests per capita in the world, the outbreak has been relatively contained. The UAE has reported more than 17,000 cases and 185 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. 

Dubai eased its 24-hour curfew on the eve of Ramadan in the last week of April, allowing residents to visit malls, which are operating at 30 per cent capacity, and to exercise outside.  

But businesses are already reeling from the shutdown and the prognosis for global travel demand. Many companies have cut salaries by up to 75 per cent or placed staff on leave as they seek to preserve cash, while praying for a recovery in autumn. 

Dubai International, once the world’s busiest international airport by passenger numbers, has reopened for one-way rescue flights to allow unemployed expatriates to return home and to bring those stranded abroad back to the UAE. But regular services, originally planned to restart in early June, have been pushed back — Emirates airline, Dubai’s flagship carrier, has grounded most of its fleet and imposed salary cuts on many of its 105,000 staff. Support for the airline threatens to be expensive given last year's operating costs were $26bn.  

Contractors working for the government and private sector are being urged to find cost cuts for existing projects of up to 30 per cent. Dubai government departments have also frozen hiring and cut administrative and capital spending by up to 50 per cent.  

“Everyone is cutting costs to preserve cash,” says one private equity fund manager. “There is going to be a bloodbath in the SME sector — lots of failures, and most are going to happen as we come out of the lockdown.” 

Survival mode 

The UAE’s financial response to the crisis has been led by the federal government, with the central bank’s $70bn support package for lenders. The measures include extra liquidity to allow banks to extend debt relief.  

But the most vulnerable smaller companies, the bedrock of the economy, making up half of output and providing the same in terms of jobs, say they have yet to see the benefits of the government's rescue package. “This is like giving mascara to the blind,” says one business owner. “Next month I will have no income, and what happens then?” 

Dubai has extended direct support to businesses, including reducing government fees and utility bills. Mall operators and commercial property companies, as well as the city’s financial district, have offered rent relief to tenants. But the UAE’s direct fiscal stimulus equates to 2 per cent of GDP, compared with 5 per cent unveiled by Bahrain and 12 per cent by Singapore, says Mr Malik.  

For businesses it is now a question of survival.  

“Without proper support from the government and banks, it is going to be very difficult,” says Abdul Kader Saadi, whose Glee Hospitality consults on and operates restaurants. He has lost management contracts and closed some operations, while cutting salaries and encouraging staff to return home for three months’ unpaid leave. 

His business thrived during the global financial crisis a decade ago, even as many expatriates left, with images of abandoned cars at the airport a symbol of that period. He says today’s crisis is worse. 

A magnet for millions across the Middle East, Africa and Asia, Dubai has a record of defying its sceptics. But like Mr Saadi’s business, the commercial hub’s ability to bounce back will depend as much on external factors as domestic.  

“In Dubai, the question is which sector is not stressed? It all depends on how long it would take for oil to recover and Covid-19 to go away,” says the Gulf-based banker. “But don't bet against Dubai. Dubai is a survivor.”

Sex for tuition fees anyone? Students being offered up to £15,000 a year to cover cost of studies, in exchange for having sex with strangers

Students are being offered up to £15,000 a year to cover their university studies in exchange for having sex with a stranger, an undercover investigation by The Independent has revealed.

The website SponsorAScholar.co.uk claims to have arranged for 1,400 women aged between 17 and 24 to be funded through their studies by wealthy businessmen seeking “discreet adventures”.

But in a secretly filmed encounter with an Independent reporter posing as a student, a male “assessor” from the website asked that she undertake a “practical assessment” with him at a nearby flat to prove “the level of intimacy” she was prepared to give before being permitted to find a sponsor online.

He said this was required for “quality control”. He told her that the more she was prepared to do, the more money she would get.

The website’s claims to have a roster of hundreds of students could not be verified. The reporter asked for evidence that scholarships had been awarded and was told that she would have to come back to the flat with the man.

But the requirement for potential “scholars” to submit to a “practical assessment” raises fears that young women students may have been exploited.

The elaborately constructed site gives the appearance of operating in the grey area in Britain’s sex laws which allow escort agencies to function legitimately by offering introductions between clients and sex workers.

Young women facing financial hardship brought on by the rise in the cost of studying were urged tonight not to be tempted into using the website.

Rachel Griffin, director of the Suzy Lamplugh Trust, which promotes personal safety, said: “Meeting a complete stranger in private could be highly dangerous at any time but when it is in connection with a scheme like this, the risks are sky-high.” The National Union of Students accused those behind the website of seeking to “capitalise on the poverty and financial hardship of women students”.

SponsorAScholar.co.uk offers young women “up to 100% of your Tuition Fees” in return for two-hour sessions with men in hotel rooms or private flats up to four times per term.

“Because of the considerable sums of money our sponsors are offering in scholarship, they tell us that they have expectations of a high level of sexual intimacy with their chosen student,” the website says.

During the meeting between the “assessor” and our reporter – which our reporter insisted must begin in a public place, choosing a fast food restaurant in south London – the man said: “The more you’re prepared to do, the more interest you're going to get, obviously the more sponsorship amount you’re going to get for that.”

SponsorAScholar.co.uk uses a false company and VAT number belonging to the legitimate dating site Match.com. A spokesman for the company said: “The website is not affiliated with Match.com in any way and we are in the process of contacting them to legally require that all references to Match.com are removed immediately.”

SponsorAScholar.co.uk purports to be registered at the former address of a senior academic from a leading British university, and the man claiming to be the assessor used the lecturer’s name in the encounter with the reporter – as well as in email correspondence and on his answerphone message.

The academic, approached by The Independent last Friday, said he had no idea that the website had been registered to his name and former address. He did not recognise the man in our undercover footage. Yesterday he added that he had now contacted the police to report the matter.

The meeting took place at the Powis Street branch of McDonalds in Woolwich, south London, last Thursday at 6.45pm.

As other diners tucked into burgers, the “assessor”, who said he lived near Leicester, bought the reporter coffee and sought to reassure her that the prospective “sponsors” had been vetted and were safe to meet.

Our reporter asked the “assessor” whether the “sponsors” have health checks. He answered: “We do invite them to do that, not all of them choose to do that but you can choose to have protection or not have protection on that basis.”

He described the need for her to first of all have the “practical assessment” with him as like “quality control for us”, adding: “Whatever you put on your sheet what level of intimacy you’re prepared to go into, you and I will go through that today. We’ve got a questionnaire we’ll go through, your likes and dislikes and the kind of thing you’re comfortable doing.”

He added: “We have to do that, to make sure when we put you in front of your sponsor you’re confident in doing the things you said you would do.”

The man added: “You see what you’re trying to do is attract a certain level of sponsorship, you don’t want to go up there saying you know you’re not even going to hold hands type of thing… cause you’re not going to attract any interest at all.”

After the initial 10-minute meeting – which our reporter ended by saying that she would like to reconsider his proposal rather than immediately follow him to the nearby flat for the “practical” – the man walked back to a large block of flats around the corner where he said he was staying on the fifth floor.

SponsorAScholar.co.uk claims to have been operating since 2006, but the website was registered earlier this year.

The site claims to charge “sponsors” a £100 fee and to take three per cent commission from the final “scholarship” total.

When a male reporter approached the site as a potential sponsor, however, he was told there was a “waiting list” and would be contacted in the new year. By contrast the meeting with the woman reporter posing as the female student was immediately arranged.

The “assessor” said our reporter’s decision not to go back to the flat with him was “ok”, adding: “I’ve got other candidates I need to see this evening”, before asking again if she wanted to “do the questionnaire or stop now”.

After being told stop, he suggested meeting on 13 December in Stratford, south-east London: “If we don’t do it tonight I can’t fit you in until then.”

Attempts to confirm the true identity of the “assessor” have since proved unsuccessful.

The man was today no longer returning repeated telephone calls, emails or text messages from The Independent.

Kelley Temple, NUS Women’s Officer, said: “It appears to be… exploiting the fact that women students are in dire financial situations in pursuit of an education.”

SponsorAScholar.co.uk had been changed  tonight to say simply: “Sorry website unavailable for maintenance”.