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What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024

 The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year thanks to The Economist

Nov 13th 2023

Journalists and commentators often make predictions about the future using ambiguous, carefully chosen words. Other forecasters prefer the more precise language of numbers. Good Judgment, a forecasting firm, has recruited many such people to its team of superforecasters, who work together to provide detailed, specific forecasts. Here are their predictions for events in 2024.

image: the economist

image: the economist

image: the economist

Forecasting winner

Congratulations to Zane Stucker, a legal professional based in the New York metro area, who has won The World Ahead 2023 forecasting challenge organised in collaboration with Good Judgment. Like previous winners, he has been invited to join Good Judgment’s professional superforecasting team.

Could you be a superforecaster, too? Test your own prediction skills in our 2024 forecasting challenge, which runs until October 2024 at gjopen.com/economist

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